College football betting has been back for three weeks, but we know it doesn’t really begin until the SEC joins the party. Luckily the wait is over as the SEC is back on the field, including the LSU Tigers, who begin their title defense Saturday against the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
The champs are 16.5-point home faves over the Bulldogs, but will the Tigers be able to cover that number, considering, EVERYONE WHO MATTERED IS GONE.
We break down the NCAA football odds with our best picks and predictions for Mississippi State vs LSU on Saturday, September 26, with kickoff at 3:30 ET.
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs LSU Tigers betting preview
Weather
It could be a muggy afternoon in Death Valley. The humidity will have it feeling around 90 degrees at kickoff. Other than that, the forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies with minimal wind. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key Injuries
Mississippi State: No injuries to report.
LSU: Arik Gilbert TE (Questionable), Eli Ricks CB (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
Total bettors take note: These teams haven’t lived up to oddsmakers expectations when it comes to scoring in recent meetings, with the Under going 5-0 in their last five matchups. Find more NCAA football betting trends for Mississippi State vs. LSU.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
LSU is coming off arguably the greatest offensive college football season in history. But eight NFL draft picks, four starting offensive lineman, five of the top eight pass catchers, the leading rusher, the man calling the plays in Joe Brady, oh and that guy who won the Heisman Trophy. What his name? Oh, yeah, Joe Borrow. All gone. So, now what?
Ed Ogereon and LSU will obviously always recruit well, so there's talent ready to step in, but they have some awfully big shoes to fill. Myles Brennan most of all. The junior QB threw for 353 yards and a touchdown with a pick in limited minutes last year. Terrace Marshall will be Brennan’s top target, while the backfield will take a running back-by-committee approach.
The defense also has some big key parts to replace, however they return enough NFL talent, particularly on the defensive line, to be formidable once again. But the Tigers’ D will be put to the test right away as they have to deal with Mike Leach and his famous Air Raid offense.
Leach is bringing a Pac-12 buddy with him to Mississippi State in graduate transfer K.J. Costello. The former Pac-12 quarterback should thrive in Leach’s pass-happy system. Before a disastrous injury-plagued season in 2019, Costello threw for 3,540 yards with 29 touchdowns and 11 picks in 2018.
Costello will also have the luxury of one of the SEC’s best backs in Kylin Hill. Now, Hill probably won’t lead the SEC in rushing anymore, but total yards won’t be out of the question.
Mississippi State still has some holes to fill on defense, particularly in the secondary, which LSU should be able to take advantage of. The Tigers still have a ton of talent, but expect Leach to make his SEC debut an exciting one, and take the points with the Bulldogs.
PREDICTION: Mississippi State +16.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
LSU was a terrific Over bet last season, because well, duh. The Tigers went 10-5 Over/Under a year ago, while the Bulldogs went 7-6 O/U. But you can basically throw that out the window as these are basically a pair of brand new teams.
The LSU offense isn’t the only side of the ball that has to replace players, as the Tigers defense also has some big holes to fill. K’Lavon Chaisson, Patrick Queen, Grant Delpit and Kristian Fulton are all gone. And while there's certainly NFL talent on this roster (Glen Logan, Tyler Shelvin, Derek Stingley and JaCoby Stevens to name a few) there will be an adjustment period. LSU is also switching to a 4-3 defense under new defensive coordinator Bo Pelini.
On the other side, Mississippi State used to be known for its defense, but not so much anymore. Only Vanderbilt and Mississippi allowed more yards in the SEC last season, and only Vandy allowed more points per game.
Even with all the transitioning in this matchup, with Leach’s Air Raid and the talent on LSU, we could be in for a bit of a shootout in this SEC opening week matchup. Take the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 56 (-110)
Team Total Pick
I’ve been hearing a lot of chatter from those backing LSU in this one that Mike Leach’s air raid offense won’t work in the SEC, and while it would be unfair to judge him win or lose after just one game (against the defending national champions no less), it seems silly to think it won’t fly (bad pun intended). Obviously, the athletes in the SEC are bigger, stronger, faster, but guess what? Leach is going to start getting those athletes too. Also it wasn’t too long ago when conventional wisdom was you didn’t need strong quarterback play and throw it all over the yard to win the SEC. Tell that to Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa. The point is, the game is constantly evolving, and Leach has had some success everywhere, so why not in Starkville? Secondary point, the Bulldogs should go over their team total.
PREDICTION: Mississippi State Team Total Over 19.5 (-121)
Mississippi State vs LSU betting card
- Mississippi State +16.5 (-110)
- Over 56 (-110)
- Mississippi State Team Total Over 19.5 (-121)
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