Mississippi State vs Texas NCAAF Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets: Horns Up, Score Down

Texas gets ready to make its SEC debut as it welcomes Mississippi State to town this afternoon.

Not only do the Longhorns come in as the No. 1-ranked team in the nation, but also as massive 38.5-point favorites. Despite the spread, my Mississippi State vs. Texas predictions are for the scoreboard to be underwhelmed.

Read on for a breakdown of why in my college football picks for Saturday, September 28.

Mississippi State vs Texas prediction

My best bet
Under 62.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

Before we get into this handicap let’s use this space to address something: Please, stop betting Arch Manning's Heisman Trophy odds.

Quinn Ewers is the far superior quarterback at this point in their respective careers, and this Texas Longhorns team is trying to win a national championship. If Ewers is healthy, he will be under center. 

That said, Ewers is listed as questionable for this matchup, not that he'll be needed. As of Thursday, the Longhorns are 38.5-point favorites against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Then their next game isn’t until the Red River Showdown on Oct. 12.

That will give Ewers nearly a month to recover from his injury, so I won’t be surprised if Steve Sarkisian sticks with Manning this week.

Manning was OK in his first start, throwing 258 yards and two touchdowns against a very outmatched Louisiana-Monroe squad. He also threw two picks and completed just 52% of his passes.

Mississippi State’s defense has been bad, but not notably worse than the Warhawks one Texas saw last week. The Longhorns putting up 49-52 points seems about right.

But what has me taking this Texas team seriously as the No. 1 ranked team in the country is this Longhorns’ defense. Despite losing two cornerstones to the draft, they look legit.

Texas enters this game ranking fourth in the country in opponent yards per play vs. FBS team while ranking 18th in defensive success rate. This week, the Longhorns defense should eat again.

And that’s because things went from bad to worse for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs lost quarterback Blake Shapen for the season, and despite the team’s struggles, Shapen had been running the offense well.

Now, head coach Jeff Lebby, turns to Michael Van Buren Jr., a true freshman quarterback, making his first career start. In Austin. Yikes.

Lebby generally runs an up-tempo offense, but I won’t be shocked if he runs the ball more, at a slower pace, to milk that clock and get out of Texas as healthy as possible.

Mississippi State is going to have trouble scoring at all in this one, meaning I think the total of 62.5 is just high enough to take the Under.

Mississippi State vs Texas same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 62.5

Mississippi State TT Under 7.5

Texas alt spread -34.5

+300 at BetMGM

Let’s double down on what I think is a really strong Texas defense and say that a freshman quarterback, making his first career start, on the road, in Austin won’t score more than a touchdown by adding Mississippi State to stay Under a team total of 7.5.

Texas has held its opponents to three, seven, 12, and zero points this season. And even, the 12 points were the result of a garbage-time touchdown for Michigan. Once again it’s somewhat jarring to see Mississippi State, an SEC team, as 38.5-point underdogs in this matchup against Texas, when just last week Louisiana-Monroe closed at 41.5.

I want to believe the Bulldogs are a little more talented than the Warhawks even with their starting quarterback going down. So, I’ll take Texas to win by just five touchdowns on an alternate spread instead.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Mississippi State vs Texas odds

Mississippi State vs Texas live odds

Mississippi State vs Texas opening odds

• Mississippi State vs. Texas spread: Texas -38.5
• Mississippi State vs. Texas moneyline: N/A
• Mississippi State vs. Texas Over/Under: 61.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Mississippi State vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis

• Texas opened this SEC clash as a mammoth 38.5-point favorite and that's where the line sits as of Thursday afternoon.
  
  
• It's a little stunning to see an SEC matchup with a spread this large. Texas was only favored by three more points vs. Louisiana-Monroe last week. It's a big number, but the Longhorns have gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games at home.
  
  
• This total hit the board at 61.5, and the early money has come in on the Over, bumping the number up to 62.5.
  
  
• As noted, Mississippi State is starting a freshman QB making his first career start. Points from the Bulldogs could be rare. I'm already on the Under 62.5, but there's a chance this hits the key number of 63, and I would love to snag the Under on that as well.

Mississippi State vs Texas betting trend to know

Mississippi State has only covered the 1H spread in three of its last 12 games (-7.10 Units, -53% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi State vs Texas.

Mississippi State vs Texas game info

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