Life is about to get much more difficult for the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Not to put too fine a pin in it, but they may be about to earn their alternate moniker of the Ramblin’ Wreck.
An upset of the Mississippi Rebels may be too much to ask from Georgia Tech, but head coach Geoff Collins will need a competitive game to steady his ship moving forward.
Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Mississippi vs Georgia Tech on Saturday, September 17.
Mississippi vs Georgia Tech best odds
Mississippi vs Georgia Tech picks and predictions
This game-long spread hovers around -17 in favor of Mississippi after the lookahead version, a week ago, sat just above -10. While it is hard to square a touchdown jump based on the Rebels running an FCS-level team off the field while Georgia Tech merely found its way past one, as well, that jump may not have been enough.
More and more so, betting lines are made based on analytics. We all know this. Those numbers factor in returning production, recent results, and recruiting rankings — but they have not yet figured out how to properly weigh an influx of incoming transfers with immediate eligibility. Exhibit A: Marshall had two dozen transfers, including nine from Power Five programs. Notre Dame should have still beaten the Herd last week, but that spread never should have been three touchdowns, either.
Mississippi raided the transfer portal just as aggressively. Lane Kiffin is not in Oxford for a long time — he’s intent on a good time.
Even that piece of logic doesn’t underscore this misguided line properly. Some weighted analytics make it as high as -25. Another touchdown would feel extreme, but it highlights that something is off here. Something smells.
What smells is Geoff Collins’ desperation. He has won three games in each of his three seasons leading Georgia Tech, and the Yellow Jackets may be favored in only one more game yet this season, against Duke on Oct. 8. A strong few weeks could flip that line against Virginia (Oct. 20) or at Virignia Tech (Nov. 5), but the plight is clear: Georgia Tech probably will not exceed three wins this season, either.
How Collins holds onto his job beyond this season is not this weekend’s concern, but his need to look good, no matter how superficially, is.
Every instinct says to take Mississippi, perhaps even with an alternate line. The line movement supports that thought, the undervalued transfers strengthen it, and the Rebels’ explosive offense would gladly fulfill it.
But something smells. Collins will chase a backdoor cover like his job depends on it, because it might. Avoiding that desperation will make for a calmer Saturday evening. First-half trust in Mississippi leans on all those reasons to back the Rebels while dodging Collins’ hot seat.
My best bet: Mississippi first half -9.5 (-110 at Caesars)
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Mississippi vs Georgia Tech betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
The only on-field result to support that spread being as low as 17 points is how Georgia Tech stymied Clemson for much of the season opener on Labor Day, but in time, the Tigers broke through. As poor as DJ Uiagalelei continues to play, he did lead four genuine touchdown drives. It took a bit, but Clemson found enough of a groove to outgain the Yellow Jackets 378 yards to 237.
Thus far this season, Mississippi is an overall above-average team. Per cfb-graphs.com, no single aspect of the Rebels ranks lower than No. 42 in the country aside from its passing defense, nearly country-average at No. 60.
The obvious follow-up question is if the Wreck has a potent passing game. Through two games — with one of them presumably a chance to boost stats — no, no Georgia Tech does not. In a 35-17 win against FCS-level Western Carolina, Wreck quarterback Jeff Sims completed just eight of 17 passes for 100 yards.
There is little about Georgia Tech that should worry Mississippi, objectively speaking.
Over/Under analysis
A total of 63 points again puts some faith in the Wreck, some faith that’s hard to square when operating in facts. But, faith that is so clearly there, something screwy must be afoot. Georgia Tech has not scored the expected 23 points, against an FBS opponent, in … far less time than you realize.
The Yellow Jackets scored 30 or more points against five FBS foes last year, shockingly enough. The last three of those moments were all in losses, and in the 48-40 fall to Virginia, Georgia Tech very much enjoyed a backdoor cover. The other two were both competitive enough not to need such gambling glory.
Those moments all came with running back Jahmyr Gibbs, of course. The star is now a catalyst for a little-known offense run out of Tuscaloosa, Ala. Consider that yet another reason Collins may be worried about his 2023 job prospects.
Mississippi vs Georgia Tech game info
• Location: Bobby Dodd Stadium at Historic Grant Field, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Saturday, September 17, 2022
• Kick-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Mississippi vs Georgia Tech key injuries
Find our latest College football injury reports.
Mississippi vs Georgia Tech weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Mississippi vs Georgia Tech betting trend to know
The Under is 9-1 in Mississippi’s last 10 games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Mississippi vs. Georgia Tech.
