Missouri vs Army Armed Forces Bowl Odds, Picks and Predictions: Backing the Black Knights With Supreme Confidence

What happens when a movable object meets an unstoppable force? Bowl games were made to answer that question, as Missouri’s atrocious rush defense has to figure out how to stop Army’s triple-option approach.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Missouri vs Army in the Armed Forces Bowl on December 22, with kickoff set for 8:00 p.m. ET.

Missouri vs Army odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The line opened at Army by 3.5 and has moved to Army -6.5 as of Wednesday morning. The total opened at 59.5, fell to 58.5 within a few days, then dropped further to 57.5 just before bowl games kicked off — and now sits at 54 about nine hours before kickoff.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Missouri vs Army predictions

• Prediction: Army -3.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 57.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Army -3.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 12/16/2021 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Missouri vs Army game info

• Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
• Date: Wednesday, December 22, 2021
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Missouri vs Army betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Missouri: Shawn Robinson DB (Questionable), Bobby Lawrence OL (Questionable), Elijah Young RB (Questionable).
Army: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in Army's last four bowl games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Missouri vs. Army.

Missouri vs Army picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The overlords at Covers can be rather demanding. They insist on entirely reasonable word counts and encourage the inclusion of some personality in this part of the preview. They don’t realize how counter those two intentions can sometimes be.

For example, when looking at Missouri’s defense and how it fares against the run, this handicapper quite literally broke out in roaring laughter while sitting alone in his apartment. If the neighbour working from home across the street happened to look up at just the right moment, he may have thought he was witnessing a maniacal snap.

That should be the entirety of this preview. Missouri gives up 6.3 yards per rush attempt, sacks adjusted. The Tigers rank No. 120 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per rush against, according to cfb-graphs.com.

And Army, well, ya know, runs the triple-option with merciless efficiency.

To satisfy those overlords, though, let’s point out the precedent for a mauling: In 2018, Army beat Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl by the mere tally of 70-14. A year before, Army won its bowl game 42-35 as a 6.5-point underdog. In 2016, the Knights won 38-31 as 10.5-point underdogs.

Go ahead, laugh.

Prediction: Army -3.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Read that trio of scores again. Army might go Over this total on its own. It scored 50 or more points three different times this season.

That may be unlikely, but the Tigers should not need to do much to push this Over, and when the Knights are rolling, they tend to give up some points, as well. Even Connecticut scored 21 points against Army.

But, again, the Knights could come close to this entirely on their own. If anticipating a plodding game against the triple-option, most opposing coaches will game plan as if they will get only eight possessions. In eight possessions against a rush defense this bad, Army could score 56 points.

And when the Knights start rattling off chunk gains against a defense that gives up a chunk play on an average rush, this will no longer be a plodding game.

Prediction: Over 57.5 (-110)

Best bet

In an attempt to best accommodate gamblers with fewer college football games to worry about, these previews are getting submitted earlier than usual. Alternate lines and team totals are not widely available yet, but if they were, one of those would be the “best bet” here.

There is no reason to think Missouri will slow down Army at any point. Few things in life sound more miserable than playing what is essentially an exhibition game against the finely-tuned machine of a service academy’s triple-option, particularly when that machine picks up steam because it can exploit your team’s most prominent weakness.

The best bet: Either the Army team total Over or, if feeling a bit ambitious, Army by whatever alternate line you think looks best, be it -7, -14 or -20. To satisfy those frustrating overlords with a bet currently available, we'll stick with Army -3.5.

Pick: Army -3.5 (-110)

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