Sportsbooks look at the top of the Mountain West and see a likely playoff team, but since when do college football odds go so according to plan? If that likelihood becomes reality, then the Boise State Broncos would be the first Group of Five team to make the 12-team College Football Playoff.
But chalk rarely holds. Even if Boise State wins the Mountain West as an odds-on favorite, the challenges at the top of the conference will likely knock the Broncos out of playoff contention. That +400 implies about a 20% chance, and that feels very generous.
The Mountain West is just too good.
Mountain West predictions for 2024
- UNLV to win Mountain West (+650)
- Colorado State Over 6.5 wins (+125)
- New Mexico Under 2 wins (+110)
- Best Heisman bet: Ashton Jeanty, Boise State (+10000)
Click on each pick to read full analysis.
Odds to win the Mountain West
| Team |  |
|---|---|
 Boise State Broncos |
-125 |
 UNLV Rebels |
+500 |
 Fresno State Bulldogs |
+550 |
 Air Force Falcons |
+1,400 |
Odds as of 8-13.
| Team | |
|---|---|
 Colorado State Rams |
+1,600 |
 Wyoming Cowboys |
+1,800 |
 San Diego State Aztecs |
+3,200 |
 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors |
+3,200 |
Odds as of 8-13.
| Team | |
|---|---|
 Utah State Aggies |
+5,000 |
 San Jose State Spartans |
+6,500 |
 Nevada Wolf Pack |
+15,000 |
 New Mexico Lobos |
+25,000 |
Odds as of 8-13.
Mountain West turnover
The Mountain West is rife with new coaches, nine in total. In this era of the transfer portal, any head-coaching change exposes a roster to attrition, an effect acutely felt in the Group of Five. By no coincidence, seven Mountain West teams rank in the bottom half of the country in returning production, and all seven have first-year head coaches.
One of the most recent coaching changes — Jeff Tedford’s retirement from Fresno State due to health concerns in July — shifted the title picture in the Mountain West. The Bulldogs were always and still are seen as Boise State’s stiffest competition, but the conference futures odds tilted further toward the Broncos in the wake of the news of Tedford’s stepping down.
The favorites: Boise before all
Boise State deserves all deference. Promoting interim head coach and former defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson to full-go head coach helped the Broncos keep their roster intact, and this was already a Mountain West-winning roster thanks to three wins to end the regular season and then a win at UNLV in the conference championship game.
Returning seven starters on each side of the ball from a team that won the Mountain West, including star running back Ashton Jeanty and four of his starting offensive linemen, understandably creates these odds-on favored numbers.
But do not overlook either Fresno State or UNLV. They both return potent offenses, and Boise State is weaker defensively than offensively. A shootout in early December could make things interesting.
The Rebels, in particular, have a scheduling opportunity that should give them an inside track to the Mountain West title game. But more on that in a bit.
The rest of the field
A year ago, there was plenty of hype around the thought of Colorado State winning the conference behind the promise of quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi. Promise did not yield the same success, and even with possible All-American receiver Tory Horton, the Rams are now viewed as an also-ran. That may be a mistake; either last preseason’s praise was entirely wrong — and Colorado State did go a fair 3-3 in one-score games — or the Rams should have more confidence at the moment.
The same cannot be said of Air Force, returning less production than any other team in the country. Falcons head coach Troy Calhoun has wondered if this is as much of a reset as he has needed to work through since his first season in Colorado Springs in 2007.
The offenses at San Diego State and Hawaii could lead to some variance that would create value in their +3,200 odds of winning the conference, but each have such defensive woes as to diminish the highest possible ceilings of that variance.
Pick to win the Mountain West: UNLV
Some car troubles delayed the writing of this paragraph by a couple hours. In that stretch, the best number available on UNLV to win the Mountain West fell to +650 from +700. At least one sportsbook is as low as +450. Clearly, there is something here.
The easy analysis focuses on the handful of seemingly strong possibilities at quarterback and the three games before conference play, plus an off week, to settle on that starter. It would point out the receiver combination of Ricky White III and Jacob De Jesus should worry each and every defense in the Mountain West. It would muse that offensive coordinator Brennan Marion’s “Go-Go” offense should outpace any defensive worries.
But beyond that, there is a path to the Mountain West title game that should be highlighted. UNLV has something neither Boise State nor Fresno State has: a matchup with both.
Thanks to folding in the "Pac 2," each Mountain West team plays only seven conference games. Five of UNLV’s are against the bottom-six teams in the conference, a breaking point where bad starts to tilt toward a thorough struggle. Just above that, the trio of Wyoming, Air Force and Colorado State could prove a live landmine for a conference contender. Fresno State faces two of them, and Boise State has to endure a trip to treacherous Wyoming. UNLV has no such worry.
If the Rebels manage to top either the Broncos or the Bulldogs — and both of those games are in Las Vegas — then UNLV will have an inside track to at least a 6-1 mark in conference play, along with a tiebreaker over one of the other contenders. This scheduling edge creates inherent value to these +650 odds. Even if UNLV were to meet Boise State in the conference championship game, the current projected spread of favoring the Broncos by about 11 would still create a hedge opportunity if holding a Rebels ticket.
Mountain West best bets for 2024
Colorado State Over 6.5 wins
About this time a year ago, Colorado State was trading as low as +1,400 to win the Mountain West, though with a win total of just 5 (+110 to the Over). The idea of the Rams offense in Jay Norvell’s second year excited some shrewd bettors, and if Colorado State had won each of its one-score conference losses … it still would have missed the Mountain West title game.
The ambitions of those bets were always too much to become reality. But some of that thought process should linger. Now the Rams should be favored in four of seven conference games with two more seemingly-sure wins in September against Northern Colorado and UTEP.
Colorado State returns three starting offensive linemen, has the best receiver in the conference and a prolific quarterback. That should be more than enough to spring at least one upset against Colorado, Oregon State, Air Force or Wyoming.
The makings are there for the Rams, even if a year later than some wanted.
New Mexico Under 2 wins
Welcome back to the sideline, Bronco Mendenhall. It’s not going to be fun. Only 10 teams return less production than the Lobos do. There might not be five teams in all of FBS who would not be favored against New Mexico on a neutral field. And none of them are on the Lobos’ schedule.
Fortunately, FCS-level Montana State is. Oh, wait, Montana State is a 9-point favorite on Aug. 24.
Books setting this win total as high as 2.5 (-155 to the Under) are simply playing a probability game. New Mexico will probably win a few games, right?
Wrong.
The Lobos return two offensive starters, and neither is on the offensive line. The defensive back-eight returns just three starters. There is nowhere to look on this roster and see an overall strength.
Matters are worsened by the schedule: Sean Lewis’s offense at San Diego State will get better as the season goes on, facing the Aztecs on Nov. 9 is far form ideal. The same can be said of Timmy Chang and Hawaii, a Nov. 30 matchup for New Mexico.
It’ll get better, Bronco, but not in 2024.
Best Heisman Trophy bet for the Mountain West
Ashton Jeanty, Boise State running back
The idea of a running back from a non-national title contender winning the Heisman Trophy is a tough thought to ponder in 2024. Even for a quarterback, a prodigious season is needed to be a Heisman candidate if not on a Top-10 team.
The 12-team Playoff may have opened that door wider for Group of Five stars, though. If, hypothetically, Ashton Jeanty carries Boise State to a 13-0 record and a spot in the College Football Playoff while outdoing his totals last season of 1,916 yards from scrimmage with 19 touchdowns, he might garner some consideration.
Now, every word of that hypothetical is unlikely. But that is why Jeanty is at 100-to-1 at the only sportsbook offering him on the Heisman board, an irony considering Circa Sports hosted the Mountain West Media Days but insisted Jeanty hold his press availability across the street, being Circa Sports is strictly a 21+ venue and Jeanty will not be of legal drinking age until December.
More College Football conference predictions
Mountain West stat to know
For a conference we instinctively think to be dominated by Boise State, the Mountain West has seen four different conference champions in the last four years, though the Broncos are the only team to have made multiple conference title game appearances since 2020, playing in every title game except 2021’s.
Not intended for use in MA.
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