Navy vs Air Force Odds, Picks and Predictions: An Offensive Force to be Reckoned With

There is a core tenet when gambling on college football to bet the Under in all games featuring service academies. When the Air Force Falcons and Navy Midshipmen meet, that may not be as staunch a guideline as when Navy and Army end the season in a true triple-option slugfest, but the notion has long remained profitable, nonetheless.

So don’t take this as blasphemy, but we are about to suggest you bet an Over.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Navy at Air Force on October 1, with kickoff set for 12:00 ET.

Navy vs Air Force best odds

Navy vs Air Force picks and predictions

This is not a drill. This is not a test. This is not a feint.

This is reality.

Bet the Over … on Air Force’s team total.

Air Force’s offense is too good to fade with a total this low. Three times already this season, the Falcons have cracked open a 40 on the scoreboard. The one exception came when Air Force was missing a significant portion of its roster at Wyoming due, reportedly, to a non-COVID illness. 

Looking back into last season, the Falcons have scored 31 or more points in seven of their last eight games. This is a potent offense and it does not run the same triple-option that Navy does. Air Force runs through opponents plenty, but it also blows by them with big passing plays. Quarterback Haaziq Daniels has thrown for 218 yards on 11 completions this season. Do the mental math there and you can see the Falcons gain nearly 20 yards every time Daniels completes a pass.

Two Air Force receivers average 44 or more yards per catch, one of whom missed that lackluster Wyoming showing. There is a degree of dynamism to the Air Force approach that is not often associated with an option offense.

In their last six meetings against Navy, the Falcons have scored 33 points per game. A team total a touchdown lower than that defies some comprehension, and getting it with the hook on the better side of 27 is all the better.

Let’s loop that in as further support: Air Force kicker Matthew Dapore has gone 6-of-7 this year. He could be counted on to convert a couple of stifled possessions into points, and that can keep the Falcons on pace for this team total Over.

The majority of the Falcons' possessions get into vague field-goal range with 65.2% of them getting inside the opponent’s 40-yard line. The math of a game against Navy demands reducing total possessions. Jump to the extreme of each team having only eight possessions — which, given the Midshipmen’s offensive difficulties and inability to genuinely sustain drives, is an unnecessarily low extreme these days — and Air Force should still get five drives into scoring position.

Either turn four of those into touchdowns — which would also be close to the Falcons’ pace through four games — or settle for two Dapore kicks and this team total still cashes for the Over.

But again, there should be more than eight Air Force possessions. Navy is averaging 3.16 yards per rush this season. It cannot keep drives alive as it has long relied upon to reduce opponents’ scoring chances. Without that offensively defensive tactic, the Falcons may have a chance to run up their half of the scoreboard.

My best bet: Air Force team total Over 26.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Navy vs Air Force spread analysis

Navy will need to find its ground game to stay within the two-touchdown spread. But if it does, then that cover may be quite feasible. If the Midshipmen can grind out plenty of clock, then Air Force may only have those eight possessions. A missed kick or stalling out around the 35-yard line could hold the Falcons to just 28 points. At that point, a modest Navy effort could yield the requisite 14 points.

Then again, the Midshipmen have scored 37 total points in three games, excluding two overtimes last week. And those games were against opponents not as well-versed in defending the triple-option as the Falcons obviously are.

Until Navy can find a consistent running game, it is hard to argue for backing Ken Niumatalolo & Co., but if looking for a reason, then look to a year ago. The Midshipmen's downward trend is not new. It was so rough early last season that the athletic director fired Niumatalolo’s offensive coordinator against the head coach’s wishes (Ivin Jaspar was eventually reinstated as quarterbacks coach, where he remains to this day).

But after opening the year with 10 points through two games, Navy scored at least 17 in nine of its next 10 games, the exception being at Notre Dame as the Irish went most of November without allowing a touchdown. Navy averaged 25 points in those nine games. Hardly an offensive explosion, but decent enough that such a similar progression this year would make an Air Force cover unlikely.

Navy vs Air Force Over/Under analysis

The numbers are known. Since 2001, Unders in Commander-in-Chief games are 49-11-3. Since 2014, they are 21-2-1.

Let it be acknowledged, the two Overs came in this exact matchup in 2017 and 2019. Navy won both those shootouts, and shootout is not being used ironically. In 2017, the Midshipmen covered 75 yards in 11 plays in 98 seconds to score the game-winning touchdown with only 15 seconds left. That game ended 48-45. Navy did not need such heroics in 2019, winning 34-25.

But those moments may most reflect how far the Midshipmen have fallen. This offense will not be hanging 48 anytime soon.

Furthermore, there is a general rule of thumb to take all Unders when the total falls to 38 or so. Math does not allow for sportsbooks to make totals much lower than that, but some games deserve them. Look at Iowa on any given weekend. That concept is why service-academy matchups still regularly go Under the suppressed totals because there is a limit to how low analytics will set a number.

Navy vs Air Force betting trend to know

The Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two academies, though nine of those games went Over this week’s pregame total of 37.5. Find more NCAA betting trends for Navy vs. Air Force.

Navy vs Air Force game info

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