Army vs Navy Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Straying from Total Trend

It's once again time for the greatest tradition in college football handicapping. 

Not only does the annual showdown between the Army Black Knights and Navy Midshipmen own a college football slate exclusively to itself, but the streak of Unders cashing, currently at 16 straight, has turned this into a sickening gambling affair. 

With the total continuing to plummet, is this the year the Over finally hits?

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Army vs. Navy on December 10, with kickoff set for 3:00 ET.

Army vs Navy best odds

Army vs Navy picks and predictions

This probably will not cost me this job, but there is some slight concern as this best bet will not be on the total in the Army-Navy game. The number has simply fallen too far to strongly endorse.

Don’t get me wrong. The Under still seems more likely than the Over, even at 32.5, but when two teams dislike each other as much as these two do, an aggressive fourth quarter alone could produce two touchdowns, turning a mild affair into a 21-17 result, costing any Under bettors.

And these two do get that desperate. Weird things happen. Exhibit A: Navy linebacker Diego Fagot’s 4-yard run on a punt fake to effectively seal the game for the Midshipmen last year. The comedy of it was the punt fake was a mistake by the long-snapper, thinking he saw a particular defensive alignment. Then Fagot still converted.

Those concerns do not persist game-long. And the first-half Over/Under somehow does not mesh with this game-long total.

Typically, doubling the first-half total should get within 1.5 to maybe 4 points of the game total. Just to pull two examples from the very beginning of bowl season — most bowl games do not have first-half totals widely available yet — the Bahamas Bowl between UAB and Miami (OH) has a game total of 44.5 points but a first-half total of 22.5. The Cure Bowl between UTSA and Troy has a game total of 54.5 but a first-half total of 26.5.

Thus, one might think this weekend’s academy showcase would have a first-half total of 14.5 to 15.5 to get within range of the game total of 32.5. Instead, the first-half total is as high as 16.

Asking these two offenses to score at least three times in the first half feels like an ambitious want. Nearly any triple-option scoring drive eats time, so the success needed to crack this oddly-elevated total will also cut into the window to actually do so.

Last year’s first half — a game yours truly enjoyed in person; do so if you ever get the chance, it’s just a different atmosphere than any other college football game — featured a 13-7 Army lead, one sparked by a 56-yard touchdown run on the Knights’ first drive. Aside from that, the quickest scoring drive the entire game was 4:42 leading to an Army field goal to end the first half.

Two scoring drives each took more than seven minutes.

These trends are not newfound. After all, the years of Unders have existed for a reason, and these are triple-option offenses. Ignoring the 2020 debacle (only one touchdown, on a 13-yard drive), Army’s first touchdown drive in 2019 took nearly 11 minutes; a Knights field-goal drive took more than eight minutes in 2018. This is how these teams operate.

One such drive in the first half may put points on the scoreboard, but it’ll doom the hopes of two more scoring drives before halftime.

The math just doesn’t math as long as the first-half total is as high as 16 points. Anything north of 14.5 is too high. That hook may prove costly in a fluky situation, be it a 9-7 half or a two-point conversion if wanting to throw the game off-kilter. But at 16, too much would have to go well for these offenses to crack the Over before halftime.

My best bet: First-half total Under 16 (-110 at BetMGM)

Army vs Navy spread analysis

This line has jumped the fence, opening with Army favored by one or two points, depending on the book, and crossing the pick’em line to favor Navy by Tuesday. The Midshipmen are now as much as 2.5-point favorites.

Maybe that would not be so much a move in any other game. How much of a difference is there within the 3s? But when the total is as low as this, any move of 4-plus points stands out.

From an intangibles perspective, this may be largely motivation based. Of course, both teams are motivated in this steeped rivalry, but Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo needs this win. Needs.

There is no official word that his job is on the line, but a second straight loss to the only rival that matters in Annapolis might doom Niumatalolo after 15 seasons leading the Midshipmen. That would be three losses in four years to the Knights, and in the last three seasons, Navy has gone 10-22 overall.

If there is any murmuring around the Midshipmen locker room that Niumatalolo needs this win, that motivation alone may be enough to find victory in Philadelphia, and if betting on Navy to win, betting on the Midshipmen to cover such a short spread would also make sense.

Army vs Navy Over/Under analysis

It’s the Army-Navy total. All talk should be about the Under.

But consider how low this Under is. In two decades, only one total in all of college football has been lower than this 32.5, and it involved Iowa’s 2022 offense: 31.5 at Minnesota in November.

There is math that argues one should bet the Under on any game with a total lower than 38, as counterintuitive as that sounds. The baseline logic is that the advanced math behind the bookmakers’ numbers has lower limits, and game play ignore those limits. There is no math to guide us when the total is this low, however, aside from that Hawkeyes’ 13-10 win against the Gophers.

Army vs Navy betting trend to know

The Under has gone 43-9-1 in the last 53 head-to-head service-academy matchups, including 16 straight Unders in this season finale. Find more NCAA betting trends for Army vs Navy.

Army vs Navy game info

Army vs Navy latest injuries

Army vs Navy weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Pages related to this topic