Navy vs Notre Dame Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Sam the Man Gets Irish Season Started Off Right

Welcome back, college football. The very first game of the year will kick off from across an ocean, but the Navy Midshipmen and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish still have the common decency to kick off in midafternoon, sparing us from waiting another two hours for any FBS action, no offense North Alabama and Mercer.

Notre Dame has beaten Navy in five straight meetings, averaging 37.8 points per game. Can the Midshipmen slow what should be an improved Irish offense? Are you impressed this introduction has not included any Irish puns with Notre Dame playing in Dublin?

I break down the college football odds and offer a free college football picks and predictions for Navy vs Notre Dame on August 26, with kickoff set for 2:30 ET.

Navy vs Notre Dame best odds

Navy vs Notre Dame picks and predictions

Let’s cut to it: This line is too short. It is an overreaction to a game last November. More precisely, it is an overreaction to that second half. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish led 21-6 early in the second quarter and 35-13 at halftime. Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees then put the figurative car in neutral, stooped below the steering wheel, unbolted the gas pedal from the floor and threw it out the window. For good measure, he also cut the gas line.

No, really.

Before kneeling out the clock, Notre Dame ran 18 plays in the second half. It gained a total of 16 yards.

Rees’s strategy was sound enough. Given Navy’s triple-option offense, and as woeful as it was in 2022, the Midshipmen were not going to make up that 22-point halftime deficit unless the struggling Irish offense made a mistake. So Rees eliminated that possibility of error.

Notre Dame won 35-32.

But still.

“You get angry sometimes when you watch it,” Irish head coach Marcus Freeman said Thursday, adding he watched that second half on the Wednesday flight across the Atlantic. “I truly believe we let our foot off the pedal. That’s the one thing that can’t happen in our program.”

Lesson learned. And, to be fair, Freeman was offering an overly harsh sound bite. The approach delivered Notre Dame a win despite its offense struggling all season. When Rees threw that gas pedal out the window, he was reducing risk, as counter-intuitive as that sounds. Such is life when no receiver has emerged and the quarterback does not have a strong enough arm to create opportunities.

Enter Sam Hartman.

If Notre Dame’s receivers are better this year, it must be seen to be believed and even then, much of the credit will land with the Wake Forest transfer quarterback.

Hartman alone will allow new offensive coordinator Gerad Parker — Rees is now trying to find a quarterback at Alabama — to put the gas pedal to the proverbial metal. If Rees had enjoyed that luxury a year ago and the Irish had won, let’s say, 52-20 or 44-22, would this line be under three touchdowns this weekend?

As Navy tries to adjust to a new head coach, having not yet named a starting quarterback, with a new offensive coordinator toying with the idea of sometimes straying from the triple-option, would this much faith be put into the Midshipmen?

Exclude last season and in the previous three matchups, Notre Dame beat Navy by an average score of 43.3 to 19.3. The closest game was 22 points.

Is narrowing that view to the previous three matchups an exercise in selection bias? No, it is intentional: The Irish were led by rather conventional quarterbacks in those three seasons, Ian Book twice and then Jack Coan in 2021. In 2017, Brandon Wimbush led an offense that more closely resembled the triple-option than perhaps any other non-academy foe the Midshipmen faced. They knew how to defend that, and thus lost by only seven points.

Hartman is a rather conventional quarterback, and that is not to mention his experience. That is all it takes for the Irish to cruise past Navy.

My best bet: Notre Dame -20.5 (-110 at Caesars)

Navy vs Notre Dame same-game parlay

Notre Dame -20.5

First half Over 24.5 points

Sam Hartman Over 2.5 touchdown passes

+377 at FanDuel

Parker has further reason to keep his foot on the gas pedal. (Look, it was either take this analogy offered up by Freeman on Thursday and run with it or delve too deep into some string of puns about pubs and Guinness and whiskey. This approach seemed more wholesome. The drinking references can flex on Twitter.)

Notre Dame’s receivers were a weakness last season. Now they need to find a rhythm with Hartman. No. 3 Ohio State awaits the Irish in a few weeks. After that, No. 6 USC and the defending Heisman Trophy winner will arrive in South Bend. Notre Dame needs to find its offense. It cannot afford to stumble through September again.

The Irish do not like to run up the score on Navy, a nod of respect, though they have still cracked 50 points three times since 2011 with another three games north of 40 points scored. Sometimes that is inevitable.

In this instance, Notre Dame will not pull Hartman until the fourth quarter, if even then. The Irish will invest in his arm now to develop faith in his receivers.

That should lead to a fast start and a thorough finish.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Navy vs Notre Dame spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread spent much of the summer with the Irish favored by 19.5 points. Most of us were not investing on game lines three months ahead of time, though. For the last couple weeks, it has hung around -20.5 but more and more books are posting -21. If you want to bet Notre Dame, do so quickly. If you intend to fade this handicapper and the Irish, waiting until Saturday morning may be in your best interest.

As a multi-score favorite, Freeman went 1-5 against the spread in his debut season. But most coaches experience their most rapid growth between their first and second seasons as head coaches. If there was a foremost area for him to improve upon, playing inferior competition was it.

This total has begun ticking downward this week, dropping to 49.5 points on Wednesday from 50.5 points. Another half-point would be a huge deal, obviously. And would you look at that, shop around and some books indeed have this total at 49 as of Thursday evening.

If betting the Over, the worry will be two-fold: Now that the clock does not stop for first downs in college football, how much shorter will the game be? Take a deep breath and realize that math has already been done in these totals. Anyone steaming an Under now because of that rule change missed the chance long ago and is falling prey to a narrative. Secondly, will Navy’s triple-option offense successfully shorten this game? Unlikely, given how the triple-option is rendered less and less effective by NCAA rule changes, to such an extent that new Midshipmen offensive coordinator Grant Chesnut turned to the pistol last season as offensive coordinator at FCS-level Kennesaw State, also traditionally an option offense.

If Chestnut opens up Navy’s offense at all, that will exponentially contribute to an Over thought.

Navy vs Notre Dame betting trend to know

27-year old trends are usually useless, but how often do the Irish play in Ireland? In their last two games in Dublin, Notre Dame has scored 54 and 50 points against Navy, in 1996 and 2012, respectively. Find more college football betting trends for Navy vs Notre Dame.

Navy vs Notre Dame game info

Navy vs Notre Dame latest injuries

Navy vs Notre Dame weather

Some light rain is expected around kick off in Dublin, but little precipitation after that, with temperatures in the high 50s and winds blowing from the Northwest around 11 mph.
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic