NC State vs Kansas State Prediction: Pop-Tarts Bowl Odds and Picks

The 18th-ranked NC State Wolfpack travel to Orlando one victory shy of recording at least 10 wins for the second time in program history.

That’s inspirational stuff, but college football odds aren’t buying any of it. In fact, Thursday's bowl game odds have listed the Wolfpack as a 2.5-point underdog when they meet the Kansas State Wildcats. 

Which team will take the first bite of the edible Pop-Tarts mascot? Join me as I break it down and give my best free college football picks for the Pop-Tarts Bowl matchup between NC State and Kansas State on December 28.

NC State vs Kansas State best odds

NC State vs Kansas State picks and predictions

The transfer portal has been the story for both programs. The Kansas State Wildcats were hit hardest and they’ll meet an NC State Wolfpack team without starting quarterback Will Howard, their top two pass catchers, and several defensive players from a group ranked in the Top 30 in seven categories.

NC State is missing arguably the best player for either team in All-American linebacker and Dick Butkus Award winner Payton Wilson.

Wilson will be missed from a Top-30-ranked defense in 10 categories. Still, they have several highly skilled players on both sides of the ball just itching to make history, including sixth-year starting signal-caller Brennan Armstrong. Armstrong began the season as the starter but was benched in favor of M.J. Morris. Armstrong regained the role with three games remaining, winning all three, and Morris hit the portal.

Armstrong threw for 1,621 yards, scampered for a team-high 544 rushing yards, and accounted for 17 of the Wolfpack's 36 offensive touchdowns. Versatile frosh wideout Kevin Concepcion led the team with 10 receiving TDs and was the program's second-leading ground gainer. They’ll work behind a sometimes shaky offensive line and face a Wildcats defense that hardly resembles the defensive group that finished in the Top 30 in seven categories.

The transfer portal hit the Kansas State defense the hardest. Starting safety Kobe Savage and edge rusher Nate Matlack were the most significant losses to a defensive group landing in the Top 30 in seven defensive categories. Armstrong has all he needs to score enough to win this game, but the Wolfpack defense will need to come through big time if NC State is to pull through.

The Wolfpack defense was more than Wilson, though, and they’ll prove that Thursday night. Kansas State can't just replace Howard and its top two receivers. K-State does return 1,000-yard rusher, D.J. Giddens, and the entire offensive line seems to be intact behind backup quarterback Avery Johnson. Johnson threw three scoring strikes this season, but the Wildcats are missing too many skilled offensive personnel to effectively counter a motivated Wolfpack defense with the 16th-best rushing defense nationally.

Finally, the Wolfpack went 6-1-0 against the spread over their past seven and had more than just a lifetime supply of Pop-Tarts to play for. NC State is mostly intact and should be able to score points on the weakened Wildcats defense.

Armstrong and Concepcion's one-two offensive punch will be enough to outscore a talented yet decimated K-State defense. The robust Wolfpack defense will get enough stops against a weakened Wildcats offense to ultimately come away with the win. 

My best bet: NC State moneyline (+120 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

NC State vs Kansas State same-game parlay

NC State moneyline

Over 47

Kansas State team total Under 21.5

+950 at DraftKings

The main reason I like NC State and why this parlay correlates is my belief the Wolfpack defense can prevent the Wildcats from scoring with any consistency. While Wilson was their best defensive player by a country mile, they are relatively intact, face a K-State offense with a new offensive coordinator and starting quarterback missing its best two pass catchers.

Finally, K-State boasted one of the best defenses nationally, but the portal weakened that Wildcats group tremendously. Armstrong and the Wolfpack offense weren't weakened much by the portal, and they are hungry enough to make program history. They have their top weapons returning, and they’ll score enough to send this game Over the total.   

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

NC State vs Kansas State spread and Over/Under analysis

Taking NC State +2.5 isn’t a good idea after missing out on the +4.5 opener. The number was bet right past the key number and into territory we don’t want, as it’s easy to get backdoor covered by K-State.

That’s a big move brought on by the Wilson news, but I will bet NC State +3 if it becomes available. The Wolfpack were 5-0-0 ATS over their last five, has its regular season offense intact, and meets a Wildcats defense missing key players, including one of their captains.

Armstrong is no slouch. He’s thrown for over 10,000+ yards over his six campaigns between Virginia and his graduate season with NC State. Concepcion has hauled in 10 scoring strikes with multiple TD receptions in five of his dozen games. He could go big against a Wildcats secondary missing its best cover safety, and if he does, the game ends Over the 47.

Finally, my lean is to look for the NC State +3. I’m hoping it gets there, and if it does, I will play that as a hedge against the NC State moneyline. K-State was 2-2-1 ATS over its last five. 

NC State vs Kansas State betting trend to know

NC State has hit the moneyling in eight of its last 12 games. Find more college football betting trends for NC State vs Kansas State.

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