New Mexico State vs UTEP Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Undervalued Offense Provide Plenty of Points

Tonight's C-USA matchup between the New Mexico State Aggies and the UTEP Miners looks a whole lot more interesting than it did a week ago.

New Mexico State enters this game with a 4-3 record and has pulled off back-to-back conference wins thanks to the outstanding play of dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia. So, it might have seemed like this matchup against UTEP would be a great chance to extend that winning streak. But the Miners might have finally found their quarterback following last week’s win over FIU.

Now that the Miners have more punch on offense, are they worth a look as home dogs? Or do we set our sights on the total?

I'll break down the college football odds and find the best bet in my college football picks and predictions for New Mexico State vs. UTEP on October 18. 

New Mexico State vs UTEP best odds

New Mexico State vs UTEP picks and predictions

Talk about the job Jerry Kill has done in his first two seasons at the New Mexico State. He got the Aggies to their first bowl game since 2017 in his first season at the helm and just the fifth bowl game in program history. And this season the team is already just two wins away from becoming bowl eligible once again. 

It would be the first time since 1959-60 that New Mexico State qualified for bowl games in consecutive seasons.

So, how have they gotten here? Well largely on the back of dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia. The junior signal caller is having a breakout season for the Aggies. Pavia has thrown for 1,615 yards with 14 touchdowns compared to five interceptions while completing 62.2% of his passes. He is also the Aggies leading rusher with 431 yards and two more scores on the ground.

With Pavia leading the way, the Aggies rank sixth in the nation with 5.7 yards per carry. But that improved accuracy throwing the football is what has helped New Mexico State put up a respectable 30 points per game this season.

But all of a sudden, the Aggies might not have the only solid offense in this game.

Just four weeks ago redshirt sophomore quarterback Cade McConnell was the fourth-string quarterback for the UTEP Miners. Due to injuries, he made his first career FBS start against FIU and he did not disappoint.

McConnell was efficient vs. FIU going 11-17 for 262 yards which included a beautiful 80-yard bomb to Kelly Akharaiyi. That helped the Miners jump out to a 21-3 first-quarter lead and they never looked back on their way to a 27-14 win.

It was enough for McConnell to earn another start and he could keep cooking in this matchup against the Aggies and their suspect pass defense. New Mexico State ranks 106th in passing yards allowed per game and 92nd in opponent yards per pass attempt. 

But while UTEP may now have an answer under center, the defense still leaves something to be desired. Particularly on the ground. The Miners have some solid numbers when it comes to the pass defense but that’s generally because teams haven’t needed to pass against them.

Opponents have been able to run roughshod on UTEP this season. The Miners rank 112th in rushing yards per game and 113th in opponent yards per rush. That’s not exactly a recipe for success vs. this Aggies offense. 

I expect both teams to score in this one, so I’m taking the Over in this now much more intriguing C-USA matchup.   

My best bet: Over 47.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

New Mexico State vs UTEP same-game parlay

Over 47.5

Cade McConnell Over 175.5 passing yards

Kelly Akharaiyi Over 57.5 receiving yards

Star Thomas anytime TD

+518 at FanDuel

Our same-game parlay, as always, starts with my best bet, which for this C-USA matchup is the Over 48.5 and if that’s the case then there has to be some production in this game. 

I already, praised McConnell’s performance last week, so let’s bet that he carries that over into this game. His passing yard prop is set at 175.5 for this matchup. It’s that low likely because a big chunk of his yardage last week came on that big 80-yard toss. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit some more big shots against this Aggies defense. 

New Mexico State is prone to the deep ball, ranking 92 in opponent yards per attempt and are tied for 28th when it comes to most pass plays allowed of 20 yards or more this season.

McConnell’s top target was clearly Kelly Akharaiyi who hauled in eight receptions for 223 yards and two scores. So, I’m adding Akharaiyi to go Over 57.5 yards as well. 

I’d like to add some New Mexico State rushing yard props as well, but they don’t seem to be posted as of writing this. Instead, let’s toss Star Thomas to find the end zone in as well. He’s scored five times this season, four times on the ground and once through the air. If these hit we cash a +518 payday.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

New Mexico State vs UTEP spread and Over/Under analysis

UTEP opened this matchup as 2.5-point underdogs but New Mexico State has seen the early action, moving the line to three. This line certainly gives the Miners a little more respect since showing some life with McConnell under center.

But the Aggies have been a great bet lately, going 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall. And since New Mexico State has been more consistent on offense all season long, as opposed to just one game for McConnell. I expect Pavia will be the difference maker in this game and I would lean toward the Aggies as short favorites here.

The total hit the board at 49 and the early money has been on the Under and the number has dropped to 47.5 as of Tuesday afternoon. But as stated above, this number isn’t respecting the change in quarterbacks for UTEP and with both defenses having big vulnerabilities, the Over looks like the play here.

New Mexico State vs UTEP betting trend to know

UTEP has hit the Team Total Over in each of its last three games. Find more college football betting trends for New Mexico State vs UTEP.

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