North Dakota State vs Colorado NCAAF Picks & Predictions: Bisons Bear Down in Week 1

Rarely does a game involving an FCS team draw this much attention. Welcome to the Deion Sanders effect. 

The North Dakota State Bison were scheduled to open this season against the Colorado Buffaloes long before Deion Sanders arrived in the Rockies, and plenty of college football fans would have known the Bison could pull the upset.

However, the dynamics of tonight's game escalated with the hype and fascination around Prime Time. My North Dakota State vs. Colorado predictions will try to sort through the noise and find value in our college football picks before kickoff at 8:00 ET on Thursday, August 29.

North Dakota State vs Colorado prediction

My best bet
North Dakota State +10 (-115 at BetMGM)

My analysis
This spread spent the summer favoring the Colorado Buffaloes by 8.5 points. It began to rise only once the broader world turned its attention toward college football. If it had climbed to just -9.5, then no worry would have needed to be heeded. The practical difference between -8.5 and -9.5 is negligible, the difference effectively only optical in the spread.

But climbing to -10? That's too far. This is not a doubt of Deion outright, though there's plenty of that in my personal analysis, too. I won’t deny that. This is enjoying a rare moment of market inefficiency in Week 1.

Looking at BetMGM handle and ticket splits, no one has taken more action this weekend than Colorado has. For that matter, no total has seen as much Over action as this game has, with 91% of the handle on the Over. That late and public interest has raised this spread, nothing else.

A genuine discussion could have been had about the worthiness of an 8.5-point line. North Dakota State is known for its physical offensive line, even if it has slipped a slight touch in recent years. Colorado has struggled to import entire offensive and defensive lines, a difficulty in the transfer portal era that a certain head coach refuses to acknowledge and account for.

A more physical underdog with a two-possession spread should shorten the game, something the Bison offense does by default. That would have always been the handicap at +8.5.

At +10, the conversation needs to be about how this spread got so high. The public obsession with Deion Sanders is a fact of life. It need not be dismissed or ignored to recognize it can also provide betting value.

North Dakota State vs Colorado same-game parlay (SGP)

North Dakota +10.5

Under 60.5

Shedeur Sanders anytime touchdown

+1,100 at bet365

The total moving up to 60.5 from 58.5 a week ago is not as egregious a move as the spread jumping 1.5 points, simply because 59 and 60 are not as key of numbers as +10 is. However, this is still undeserved inflation inspired by public money, so let’s take advantage of it.

Betting on Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders to find the end zone while also backing the Under and the Bison escalates this same-game parlay’s payout, due to the conflicting nature of those bets. But deep down, betting on Sanders to find paydirt is also a bet on North Dakota State’s defensive line.

When Sanders is flushed, his eyes fall, costing him chances at gains on broken plays downfield. It is an understandable mistake; Sanders was often running for his life last season.

Create one or two of those moments in the red zone, and Sanders likely will feel forced to find the goal line on his own.

Check out our North Dakota State vs. Colorado game props ahead of kick-off.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

New Users
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM

Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!

Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.

Sign Up Now 

North Dakota State vs Colorado odds

North Dakota State vs Colorado live odds

North Dakota State vs Colorado opening odds

• Spread: North Dakota State +7.5 | Colorado -7.5
• Moneyline: North Dakota State +210 | Colorado -260
• Over/Under: Over 58.5 | Under 58.5

North Dakota State vs Colorado spread and Over/Under analysis

• This spread first moved in May, ticking upward from -7.5 to -8.5. It then held steady until a week ago. At first, jumping to -9.5 hardly warranted notice, but climbing to -10 at some books has demanded contrary action.
  
  
• Colorado was a multiple-possession favorite in just two games in Deion’s first season as head coach, going 0-2 against the spread in those two games — both of them reaching overtime — and 1-1 outright.
  
  
• The total sat at 58.5 all summer. From April into August. Only in the last week did it climb, reaching as high as 61.5 at some books on Wednesday morning.

North Dakota State vs Colorado betting trend to know

North Dakota State is 9-4 all-time against FBS opponents, including winning six in a row from 2010 to 2016, topping teams like Kansas, Minnesota, Kansas State, Iowa State, and even No. 11 Iowa in 2016. Find more college football betting trends for North Dakota State vs. Colorado.

North Dakota State vs Colorado game info

North Dakota State vs Colorado latest injuries

North Dakota State vs Colorado weather

Forecasters are calling for 72 degrees at game time with a 2% chance of precipitation. Winds gusts of 14 miles per hour are expected. Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Pages related to this topic