The Western Michigan Broncos will try to stay atop the MAC standings on Wednesday night as they host the Northern Illinois Huskies at Waldo Stadium.
The Broncos may come in as underdogs, but I’ll explain why I like them to win at home in my Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois predictions.
Let’s take a closer look at why I think the Broncos have the edge in my free college football picks for Wednesday, November 6.
Be sure to also check out our Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan props!
Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan prediction and best bet
My best bet
Western Michigan moneyline (+112 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Northern Illinois briefly became the darlings of college football when they beat the Notre Dame Fighting Irish 16-14 in early September. However, the Huskies have done little to suggest that game was indicative of their strength as a team.
In six games since, Northern Illinois has gone just 2-4, and has a 1-3 record against MAC opponents. Yet many rating systems still rate the Huskies relatively highly, no doubt buoyed by that one result in South Bend.
The problem with looking at a sample size of one game, no matter how impressive, is that it can be highly misleading. Unless a team is so outmatched that it has no chance to score or no chance to stop its opponent, there’s some chance of an upset, and fluke results can happen. Increasingly, that’s what Northern Illinois’ win over Notre Dame looks like: an unlikely series of events that led to a narrow upset for a huge underdog.
Western Michigan already has wins over the Buffalo Bulls and the Ball State Cardinals, both teams that Northern Illinois came up short against. The Broncos are riding a four-game winning streak and have covered as favorites in each of their last three games. They will be at home for this matchup, where they are 3-0 this year.
Maybe you like the Huskies because of their outstanding defense, which is allowing just 17.6 ppg and led the team to the win against Notre Dame. That’s a reasonable premise, but it’s hard to see Northern Illinois completely shutting down a Broncos offense that is putting up 34 points per game and hasn’t been held below 34 points in MAC play.
Western Michigan can’t be expected to put up those kinds of numbers against the Huskies, who will be the best in-conference defense it will face this year. But quarterback Hayden Wolff and running back Jaden Nixon are legitimate weapons for the Broncos, and they should find ways to score over the course of 60 minutes.
I can’t see Northern Illinois — which is averaging just 23.4 ppg — finding enough ways to score on the road to keep up with the Broncos, even if they have been poor on the defensive side of the ball. I like Western Michigan to win outright at home on Wednesday night and remain undefeated in the MAC.
Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan same-game parlay (SGP)
Western Michigan moneyline
Under 52.5
Jaden Nixon anytime touchdown
Western Michigan should be able to put away Northern Illinois on Wednesday night, but the Huskies defense won’t make it easy. I’m expecting a tough, low-scoring contest, and that’s why I’m taking the Under at 52.5 points.
Northern Illinois has yet to give up more than 25 points in a game this season, and they may well keep up that streak here even in a losing effort.
As for who will score for the Broncos, running back Jaden Nixon is the clear choice. Nixon has 10 touchdowns on the year and has scored in five of his last six games, easily running the ball against most opponents. Northern Illinois may be good against the run, but they’re far from spectacular, and Nixon should find his spots to break through and lead Western Michigan to victory.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan odds
Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan live odds
Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan opening odds
- Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan spread: Western Michigan +1.5
- Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan moneyline: Northern Illinois -110, Western Michigan +112
- Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan Over/Under: 52.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis
- Northern Illinois is 4-3-1 against this season, with Western Michigan being a dead even 4-4 ATS on the year.
- The Broncos are a perfect 3-0 straight up at home this year, going 2-1 ATS in those games.
- The Over is 6-2 when Western Michigan plays this year, while the Under has the 4-3-1 edge in Northern Illinois’ games.
- The Huskies are playing to an average total of 41.0 ppg, with the offensive-minded Broncos averaging a total of 67.8 ppg.
Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan betting trend to know
Western Michigan has won four straight games. Find more college football betting trends for Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan.
Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan game info
| Location: | Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, MI |
| Date: | Wednesday, 11-6, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
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