Notre Dame has won six straight games to keep itself in CFP contention, covering in all six. Extending that win streak to seven should not be in doubt at Stanford, coming in on its own six-game streak, one of the losing nature.
Covering a hefty spread might be a bit tougher for the Irish, even as they look for style points to impress the College Football Playoff selection committee.
Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Notre Dame at Stanford on November 27, with kickoff set for 8:00 p.m. ET.
Notre Dame vs Stanford odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Notre Dame opened as a mere 16.5-point favorite on Sunday, a number that jumped to -17.5 by that night and then slowly climbed to -20.5 through the week, adding a point a day through the first half of the week. The total opened at 52.5 points and moved to 53.5 on Tuesday, where it has remained.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Notre Dame vs Stanford predictions
Predictions made on 11/26/2021 at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Notre Dame vs Stanford game info
• Location: Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA
• Date: Saturday, November 27, 2021
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Notre Dame vs Stanford betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Notre Dame: Kyle Hamilton S (Out), Avery Davis WR (Out), Joe Wilkins WR (Out).
Stanford: John Humphreys WR (Out), Silas Starr WR (Out), Lukas Ungar TE (Questionable), Casey Filkins RB (Questionable), Stephen Herron LB (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Notre Dame has covered its last six games, while Stanford has failed to cover a game in that same stretch of time. Furthermore, the Irish are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings against Stanford. Find more NCAA betting trends for Notre Dame vs. Stanford.
Notre Dame vs Stanford picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
What does Stanford have to play for this weekend? What does Notre Dame?
One is looking to end a six-game losing streak after just spending Thanksgiving away from its families, the end of a miserable season and a frustrating two years. The other is riding a six-game winning streak with vague Playoff hopes still afoot and at least somewhat dependent on the optics of a win this weekend.
What does Stanford do worse than just about anybody else in the country? What has Notre Dame been doing better recently than just about anybody else in the country?
The Cardinal have given up 6.2 yards per rush (sacks adjusted) this year, while the Irish have averaged 6.01 yards per carry during this six-game winning streak, a mark that would rank No. 1 in the country over the entire season.
Six-game sample sizes are big enough to be considered valid in this sport, considering that constitutes more than half the data points we have on hand from the season. And these recent samples make it clear: Notre Dame should put on an old-fashioned physical performance Saturday for the Playoff committee to enjoy.
Prediction: Notre Dame -20.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Not only has the Irish offense, specifically its ground game, found solid footing of late, so has the Notre Dame defense. It has not given up a touchdown in three weeks, and though none of those opponents were particularly threatening, neither is the Cardinal, which has scored just 14.3 points per game during this losing streak.
Whether considering surface-level or analytical stats, Stanford’s offense is best described as putrid. It averages 5.23 yards per play, No. 98 in the country. Its offensive EPA ranks No. 100 in the country, per cfb-graphs.com. Of the three straight opponents the Irish have kept out of the end zone, two ranked better than the Cardinal in both regards, with Navy being the exception.
Logically, Stanford will probably score Saturday night, but the longer into the game Notre Dame keeps the Cardinal out of the end zone, the more that defense will want to extend that streak to four games.
That may require the Irish offense to score 45 points simply to crack this total. Even last week’s 55-0 rout of Georgia Tech included two defensive touchdowns. Though Notre Dame’s offense has improved, it still does not score in absolute bunches the way the country’s best do. Anything higher than the upper 30s is likely beyond its reach, keeping this total Under.
Prediction: Under 53.5 (-110)
Best bet
The two initial thoughts — one pondering if Stanford has quit while Notre Dame has a Playoff to chase and the other pointing out the Irish strength on the ground fits right into the Cardinal weakness defending the run game — go hand-in-hand. What sounds miserable when you are already miserable? Getting out-muscled at the line of scrimmage repeatedly as your nominal rival proves itself more capable in the trenches than you these days.
That could lead to Stanford simply going through the motions sooner than expected, all while Notre Dame tries to prove something to a committee that may not even be watching the game.
This handicapper is currently typing this while waiting for a train in downtown San Francisco, where sports gambling has not been made widely available, to much personal chagrin. Browsing through various sportsbooks, though, alternate spreads favoring the Irish exist to the tune of -24.0 (+135) or so. If that was a touch more widely available, that would be the best bet, but in order to cater to as many readers as possible, let’s keep this a bit more traditional.
That said, there is no reason to think Saturday night at Stanford will be anything but a Cardinal sacrifice.
Pick: Notre Dame -20.5 (-110)
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