Ohio State vs Michigan Picks and Predictions: Will 'The Game' be a Game?

Ohio State's rivals to the north haven't won much in this matchup recently, with the Buckeyes taking 17 of the last 19 against Michigan. However, this year's game may tell a different story for a Wolverines team with just the recipe to compete with their hated rival.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Ohio State at Michigan on November 27, with kickoff set for 12:00 ET.

Ohio State vs Michigan odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

This line never fell below its opening number of favoring Ohio State by 7.5. It spent Monday and most of Tuesday at -8.5, and though some books retreated back to -8 or even -7.5, the unusual number of -8.5 remains the consensus as of Thanksgiving afternoon.

The total opened at 63.5 on Sunday before rising to 64.5 later that evening. It fell back to 63.5 on Monday and then bounced back to 64.5 on Tuesday, where it remains. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Ohio State vs Michigan predictions

• Prediction: Ohio State -8 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 64.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Ohio State -8 (-110)

Predictions made on 11/25/2021 at 5:35 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Ohio State vs Michigan game info

• Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
• Date: Saturday, November 27, 2021
• Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

Ohio State vs Michigan betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Ohio State: Sevyn Banks CB (Questionable), Jakailin Johnson CB (Out), Jantzen Dunn S (Out), Jaden McKenzie DT (Out), Noah Potter DE (Out), Mitchell Melton LB (Out), Kamryn Babb WR (Out), Marcus Crowley RB (Out), Harry Miller OL (Out), Jake Seibert K (Out).
Michigan: Blake Corum RB (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Ohio State is 6-2 ATS in the last eight renditions of “The Game,” an annual meeting that was unfortunately canceled in 2020. Going back further, the Buckeyes are 9-4 ATS in this matchup since 2007, and Ohio State is 17-2 SU this century against Michigan. Find more NCAA betting trends for Ohio State vs. Michigan.

Ohio State vs Michigan picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

This isn’t meant to be easy. If this was easy, there would not be massive shiny buildings in Las Vegas with casino operators’ names on them. If this was easy, it would not be so widely, and misleadingly, considered a vice. If this was easy, winning bets would not bring as much personal validation as they do when they cash.

Setting this line at -8 makes this especially not easy. If it were a mere touchdown, there would be no hesitation in picking Ohio State. Michigan may have one of the country’s best defenses — No. 7 in scoring defense at 16.3 points per game, No. 9 in passing rating against, and No. 10 in yards allowed per play at 4.67 — but the Buckeyes offense has not been slowed yet this season, let alone stopped.

Penn State ranks higher than Michigan in every one of those categories, and the Ohio State offense still hung 26 points on the Nittany Lions, averaging 6.9 yards per play and 9.0 yards per pass attempt. The Buckeyes find their way to the end zone, one way or another, no matter what.

Doing so one more time than Michigan feels like a sure thing. But that pesky extra point in the spread throws some doubt into this handicap. Then again, two-point conversions are attempted more and more in modern college football, so maybe we all need to do a better job of adjusting to lines landing on eight, just another wrinkle keeping this all from being easy.

Prediction: Ohio State -8 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Plenty of credit is given to the Wolverines defense. And though that credit is deserved, little more need be trumpeted.

On the other hand, not enough is given to the Buckeyes defense. In the last seven weeks of Big Ten play, Ohio State has held six opponents below their season scoring averages, with the lone exception being Purdue’s explosive offense in a 59-31 rout. Those six teams fell short of their averages by 11.2 points per game. Michigan currently averages 36.9 points per game, and dropping that to 24 would make this total of 64.5 a bit of a reach even for the Buckeyes’ explosive offense.

Ohio State’s defense got off to a rough start after Oregon exposed it on the national stage, but since that Week 2 gaffe, the Buckeyes have found more stability than broadly recognized.

Add in a likelihood of snow in Ann Arbor on Saturday, and these two defenses should combine to deflate the score.

Prediction: Under 64.5 (-110)

Best bet

Seemingly anything can happen when Ohio State and Michigan meet. The Buckeyes can win by a lot (by at least four possessions in 2015, 2018, and 2019), the Buckeyes can win by a little (less than one possession in 2012, 2013, and 2016), or the Buckeyes can win by just a comfortable margin (2014 and 2017).

In two of those possibilities, Ohio State would cover this number.

Pick: Ohio State -8 (-110)

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