Oklahoma vs Florida State Prediction: Cheez-It Bowl Odds and Picks

The amount of food-sponsored bowls seem to grow by the year, but they don’t get any cheddar than this as the Oklahoma Sooners take on the Florida State Seminoles in the Cheez-It Bowl. Sorry, that was cheesy. Damn. So was that. I promise I’m done now. Back to this intriguing bowl matchup. 

To put it nicely, Brent Venables' first season in Norman did not go as planned. Oklahoma finished the season 6-6, marking the first time since 1998 that the Sooners finished the season without a winning record. 

FSU on the other hand looks like a team on the rise. The Seminoles went 9-3 this season which included two wins over SEC teams — LSU and in-state rival Florida — and they looked like the best team in the ACC when all was said and done

College Bowl odds have noticed the difference in the current state of these big-name programs, but where is the value with FSU laying nearly double-digit chalk? I break it all down and bring you my best bet for the Cheez-It Bowl in my free college football betting picks and predictions for Oklahoma vs. Florida State.

Oklahoma vs Florida State best odds

Oklahoma vs Florida State picks and predictions

Betting on Bowl games is an exercise in identifying motivation levels. And who cares about playing in the Cheez-It Bowl? Spoiler alert. It's not Oklahoma.

Like I said, Brent Venables' first season with the Sooners did not go as planned. And while a transition period was expected, no one expected a 6-6 season. Heck, this team was still the betting favorite to win the Big 12 in the preseason.

My favorite sad Sooners stat I've heard is this: Lincoln Riley lost seven Big 12 games over his five seasons in Norman. Venables lost six this season alone.

The offense was inconsistent and the defense — which Venables was brought in to fix — was much worse. On top of that, the Sooners have been hammered by transfers and opt-outs, including their top running back Eric Gary and both starting tackles. Plus, a host of others.

So, how motivated is the remaining team to play in the Cheez-It Bowl when it is used to Sugar and Cotton Bowl appearances? My guess is not much.

Florida State is on the opposite end of the motivation spectrum. The Seminoles closed the season with five straight wins (4-1 ATS) and had two wins against SEC opponents. The three losses came by a combined 18 points, all to Top-25 teams. And the way FSU was playing at the end of the season, I would bet they could beat Clemson in the ACC Championship.

Florida State got a huge boost when quarterback Jordan Travis announced he would return for his senior season. Travis threw for 2,796 yards with 22 touchdowns compared to just four interceptions. He also added 367 yards and seven scores on the ground, and now he gets to face a Sooners team that ranked 120th in total defense and 99th in scoring defense.

It’s not just Travis, nearly every key Seminoles player will suit up for this game. Florida State has already proven it is the best team in the state of Florida. Now it wants to prove it's coming for the ACC in 2023 and maybe more by capping this year with a big win against a blue-blood program.

Lay the points with the Seminoles.

My best bet: Florida State -9.5 (-110 at bet365)

Oklahoma vs Florida State spread analysis

Florida State opened as a 7.5-point favorite when this bowl was announced back at the beginning of December. But with the numerous Oklahoma opt-outs and transfers, and the potential lack of Sooners’ motivation, the line quickly started moving even more in the Seminoles' favor. 

The spread is now sitting between Florida State -9.5 and -10 depending on the book. If you like the Seminoles, I would suggest jumping on them sooner rather than later, before 10 or higher becomes the consensus.

I like the Seminoles at anything under 10, but if the spread does jump over that number, looking at the Over on their team total is not a bad alternative. 

And do you want a little more motivation added to the equation? A storied Florida State program is looking for its first bowl victory since 2017 and the first in the Mike Norvell era.

Oklahoma vs Florida State Over/Under analysis

The total for the Cheez-It Bowl has also seen a bit of action. It hit the board at 62 and has been bet all the way up to 65.5. At this elevated number, I’m staying away from the total. I have plenty of faith that Florida State can put up 40-plus points in this game, with the team scoring at least 38 points in five straight.

The problem is whether Oklahoma can do its part. The gap between Gray and his backups is large and not having two NFL-caliber tackles will be a challenge for whoever is running the ball. It also means headaches for quarterback Dillon Gabriel, as inexperienced tackles will have their hands full with a Seminoles defensive front that ranks seventh in the country when it comes to sack rate. 

I see too many final score variances to be comfortable betting on the total here.

Oklahoma vs Florida State betting trend to know

Oklahoma is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall while Florida State is 8-3 ATS in its last 11. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oklahoma vs. Florida State.

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