Oklahoma’s first SEC season was not going well. The Sooners had just one conference win and the offense was a mess. Then Alabama came to town last week and the Crimson Tide crashed on the breakwall that is the Brent Venables defense.
My Oklahoma vs. LSU predictions for tonight ask if the Sooners can do it for a second straight week as they head to Death Valley to take on Garrett Nussmeier and the Bayou Bengals.
Check out my college football picks for this SEC showdown on Saturday, November 30, which kicks off at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Oklahoma vs LSU prediction and best bet
Who will win Oklahoma vs LSU?
I'll make a bold prediction and say the Oklahoma Sooners pull off their second straight upset, this time in Death Valley.
The Sooners are feeling good about themselves following last week’s big win over Alabama and they have the defense to compete in this game, particularly because LSU’s offense is looking a little too one-dimensional these days. Which is not something you want to do going against a Brent Venables defense.
Oklahoma will do just enough against a suspect Tigers defense to earn the win.
My best bet
Under 46.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Talk about a much-needed win. The Oklahoma Sooners were not enjoying their first season in the SEC. Their offense was a dumpster fire, and they had managed just one conference win heading into last week’s game against Alabama.
The Crimson Tide were nearly two-touchdown favorites and were already thinking about their trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game. But Alabama was not prepared for the Sooners defense. I mean, we knew Brent Venables’ defense was good, but what they did to Bama was next level.
The Sooners held Alabama to just three points and shut the Tide out for the final three quarters. They also held Jalen Milroe to just seven yards rushing on 15 attempts and forced him to be a passer, which resulted in him going just 11-for-26 for 164 yards with three interceptions.
After that performance, the Sooners are ranked 12th in defensive success rate and seventh in opponent EPA per play, and their next test is LSU Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier.
Nussmeier should be one of the top quarterbacks selected in next April’s NFL Draft and is having an impressive season, throwing for 3,458 yards with 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. But the Tigers’ offense is one-dimensional and it has managed just 19 points per game over its last four.
LSU runs the football at the seventh-lowest rate in the nation and ranks 90th in success rate on those rushes. And being one-dimensional is not a good thing against a Venables defense.
So, this is an easy spot to take the points with the underdog, right? Well, Oklahoma’s offense is still a problem. Yes, the Sooners ran ball well and took advantage of their opportunities against Alabama, but they still threw for just 68 yards.
Oklahoma enters this game ranked 110th in offensive success rate and is averaging just 16.4 points per game in SEC play.
A great defense and a horrible offense has me thinking Under in this SEC showdown.
Oklahoma vs LSU same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 47.5
Jackson Arnold 45+ rushing yards
Kyren Lacy anytime TD
Jackson Arnold’s legs were a big reason why Oklahoma was able to take down Alabama last week. The Sooners QB rushed for a massive 131 yards on 25 attempts. It was the fourth time in the last five games in which Arnold had at least 17 carries, and I think his ability to tuck the ball and run will be a big part of the Sooners' offense in this matchup against LSU.
The Tigers let Jalen Milroe rumble all over them for 185 yards and just let Diego Pavia go for 43 last week. Arnold should have more success on the ground in this matchup.
Now, LSU might not do a ton of scoring in this game, but if they do, it means wide receiver Kyren Lacy found the end zone. Lacy leads the Tigers with eight touchdowns and has scored in three of the last six games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Oklahoma vs LSU odds
Oklahoma vs LSU live odds
Oklahoma vs LSU opening odds
- Oklahoma vs. LSU spread: LSU -6
- Oklahoma vs. LSU moneyline: Oklahoma +185, LSU -225
- Oklahoma vs. LSU Over/Under: 47
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Oklahoma vs LSU spread and Over/Under analysis
- LSU opened this SEC matchup as 6-point home favorites, and that's where the spread sits as of Saturday morning.
- With LSU's offense hitting a rough patch, it's no surprise the Tigers have struggled to cover spreads, going 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Oklahoma, meanwhile, has covered in three of its last four.
- The total hit the board at 47 and has moved down just slightly to 46.5.
- LSU's offense not living up to expectations has made the Tigers a good Under bet this season, going 3-8 O/U. A matchup with Oklahoma has another Under written all over it.
- Covers Consensus shows 58% of users backing LSU against the spread, with 65% on the Over.
Oklahoma vs LSU betting trend to know
LSU has hit the Under in six of its last eight games at home for +3.80 Units and a 43% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Oklahoma vs LSU.
Oklahoma vs LSU game info
| Location: | Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-30-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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