Oklahoma vs Texas Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Tensions Mount In Early Grind

The final Big 12 rendition of the Red River Rivalry will feature two Top-15 teams, the Texas Longhorns meeting the Oklahoma Sooners in what should be a Big 12 championship game preview. While Texas may have the most impressive win of the season, beating Alabama by double digits in Tuscaloosa, Oklahoma hasn’t played any competition worth noting.

That makes this a particularly difficult handicap, not to mention the college football odds bouncing around an awkward area of -5 to -6. What’s the best bet at the Texas State Fair?

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Oklahoma vs Texas on Saturday, October 7, with kickoff set for 12:00 ET.

Oklahoma vs Texas best odds

Oklahoma vs Texas picks and predictions

No college football game is so simple as to be boiled down to one thing to watch. These are 18- to 23-year-olds in stressful environments. Emotions run amuck. Coaches get their egos challenged and react irrationally. Mistakes are made.

But the two items to watch in the Cotton Bowl — the actual Cotton Bowl, mind you, not the glass behemoth known as AT&T Stadium — are very much interconnected. Can Texas spring enough big-play touchdowns to avoid worrying about converting in the red zone?

The Longhorns have struggled where offensive success matters most on the field. On 24 sustained, non-garbage time drives this season, they have managed only 11 touchdowns. Texas ranks No. 108 in the country in red-zone touchdown conversions, crossing the goal line on just 11 of 21 trips inside the 20.

Leaving those kinds of points on the field will cost the Longhorns against strong competition. It very well may have against Alabama — when Texas had seven quality drives, ending in one big-play touchdown, three more touchdowns and three field goal attempts — if the Tide had not gifted them a 5-yard field. That was one of those “three more touchdowns,” a one-play, 5-yard touchdown drive. Remove that fourth-quarter tally that gave Texas an 11-point lead, and life may have been exceedingly stressful for the Longhorns. Alabama scored touchdowns on the possessions before and after that interception; its offense was moving until it was suddenly trailing by two possessions.

Perhaps most dramatically, Texas kicked field goals on back-to-back possessions early against Kansas last week, drives that each reached first-and-goal on the 8-yard line. Those are moments the Longhorns need to cross the goal line. It was not a matter of keeping the powder dry before the Red River Rivalry; from eight yards out, Texas should be able to score against Kansas using nothing but the most pedestrian part of the playbook. Instead, field goals.

The Longhorns kicked field goals on four of their six sustained drives against the Jayhawks, winning 40-14, no small part thanks to two big-play touchdowns.

Those have been Texas’s lifeblood. It won 31-10 against Wyoming after reaching the fourth quarter tied at 10 because of a big-play touchdown and an interception returned for a touchdown. Three big-play scores created the 38-6 margin at Baylor.

Of course, big-play touchdowns are part of football. But without them, the Longhorns struggle to convert long drives into points.

Fortunately for Texas, Oklahoma has been giving up big-play scores of late. Iowa State managed two last week, passes each longer than 50 yards. Tulsa logged two explosive touchdowns in mid-September, though still falling 66-17.

Those lapses could doom the Sooners against the Longhorns. And giving them up against the Cyclones suggests one or two should come in due time for Steve Sarkisian’s offense.

In due time, though.

In Texas’s two genuinely close games, at Alabama and against Wyoming, two of the three big-play scores came in the fourth quarter. Sark will wait to take those shots, setting up Oklahoma long beforehand. And without those shots, the Longhorns will struggle to score early. They will score, but it may begin with a field goal or two.

And that gradual opening camouflaging some schematic gamesmanship should keep tensions high into halftime, mostly due to low scoring.

And better yet, with FanDuel offering a 50% profit boost on an Oklahoma vs. Texas bet, you can enjoy bonus winnings on this wager!

My best bet: First half Under 30.5 (-118 at FanDuel | +127 with profit boost)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Oklahoma vs Texas same-game parlay

First half Under 29.5

Oklahoma first half moneyline +136

Highest scoring half: Second half

50% boost available

+440 +660 at DraftKings

Single-game parlays with a cohesive game-flow construction like this rarely pay out higher than +300, let alone +400. These thoughts are admittedly correlated.

If the expectation is Texas will struggle to convert a couple early drives into touchdowns, that obviously suggests value in Oklahoma to win the first half. It may come down to Sooners quarterback Dillon Gabriel making one highlight-worthy play before the break, and he has enough experience to justify that faith.

All of which should lead to the Longhorns dialing up the pressure in all regards in the third quarter.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Oklahoma vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened with Texas favored by five on Sunday, momentarily sitting at -4.5 before beginning the week firmly at -5.5. It then spent Monday through Thursday at -6 and -6.5 before a Thursday evening fall back to -5.

Reading between those lines, the sharp money likes Oklahoma to cover, and deservedly so, the Sooners are 5-0 against the spread this season.

The total opened at 62.5 before falling as low as 58.5 that afternoon. It rebounded Monday to the 60.5 it has remained at all week.

Oklahoma vs Texas betting trend to know

Oklahoma has won the first half in nine of its last 11 games, including as a 10.5-point underdog in the Cheez-It Bowl against Florida State, reaching halftime 17-11. Find more college football betting trends for Oklahoma vs Texas.

Oklahoma vs Texas game info

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