Liberty vs Oregon Player Props for Fiesta Bowl: Both Teams Run Up the Score

Prop bet #1: Establishing the run

When looking at raw numbers, the Liberty Flames run defense is quite impressive. 

But dig a little deeper, and you’ll see its ability to run the ball kept other teams from really having the opportunity to establish a run game of their own. Liberty’s opponents averaged the fifth-fewest rushing attempts per game at 28.8.

And when you see the Flames allowed 52 runs of 10+ yards this season, you take notice. That means they gave up a double-digit run about once every seven carries. To put that in perspective, the Oregon Ducks faced the second-fewest rushing plays this season, and allowed a 10+ yard rush once every nine carries. 

If we look at how New Mexico State — the team with the second-most explosive runs in the nation this season — performed in its two games against Liberty, you’ll also see an expansion of this trend. The Aggies had FIVE different players break a 10+ yard run, and four of them had 15 or more on a single carry, in their first meeting with Liberty this season.

And in the Conference USA Championship game, it was more of the same. New Mexico averaged 6.3 yards per carry, with six different players splitting duties. None of them carried it more than eight times, yet five had runs of 10 or more yards, with Diego Pavia breaking a 25-yard run from the quarterback position.

Oregon had 75 runs of 10+ yards this season, with only 28 teams having more. Jordan James had quite a few of those despite being the backup running back. He’s rushed for 40 or more yards in nine of Oregon’s 13 games this season, and will likely get extra carries in the bowl game as the Ducks prepare him for next season. 

Bucky Irving is expected to play, but he’s entering the NFL Draft afterward. That, combined with the fact Dan Lanning has emphasized establishing the run game against Liberty, means James should get double-digit carries. 

If he does, it makes his Over 44.5 rushing yards an easy play against a Liberty defense that ranks 72nd in EPA per play against the run, and 80th in opponent success rate. 

Jordan James prop: Over 44.5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Bo knows TD passes

In his 13 games this season, Bo Nix threw for 40 touchdowns in addition to rushing for six others. He threw three or more touchdowns in eight of those games, but down the stretch, he picked up the pace.

Against Arizona State, Nix threw six touchdowns on just 24 completions. That came after throwing four each against Cal and USC. In the Pac-12 Championship game, he threw another trio of scores.

In the Conference USA Championship, New Mexico State quarterback Diego Pavia threw three touchdowns on just 16 pass attempts, while Blaze Berlowitz threw another one. Those were just four of the 28 passing touchdowns allowed by the Liberty defense this season. The Flames ranked 117th in that metric.

Now, they’re going to face one of the best passing attacks in the country with their top defensive back opting out. Preston Hodge has entered the portal, which is a real problem for their defense.

Liberty ranks 98th in sack rate this season and has been fortunate to get timely interceptions. The Flames can’t count on that against Nix, who threw only three picks all season.

Oregon ranks Top 10 in yards per completion, and Nix should have plenty of time to pick Liberty’s defense apart. Liberty ranked 60th in success rate against the pass, and Nix is going to be after multiple records including the NCAA single-season completion percentage mark. 

Nix also needs three touchdown passes to set the new school record for the most in a single season. To get him at +158 to throw an additional one is a gift, and I’ll gladly take it.

Bo Nix prop: Over 3.5 passing touchdowns (+158 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Nose for the end zone

CJ Daniels led all Liberty receivers with 10 touchdown catches, an impressive number given he caught just 47 passes on the season — also the team leader. Daniels had a nose for the end zone even when he barely saw the ball. Against UTEP, he caught just two passes for 12 yards, but he managed to score a touchdown. And he nabbed touchdowns against Louisiana Tech and Western Kentucky despite hauling in only three passes in each of those contests.

Only against UMass, who limited him to just one catch for 27 yards, has he failed to score a touchdown in Liberty’s last seven games. In a game where points are likely getting scored en masse, I like him to find the end zone again.

Oregon’s pass defense is quite good, ranking Top 25 against the pass in EPA per play and success rate while also conceding just 15 passing touchdowns all season. But it’s severely depleted heading into the Fiesta Bowl. 

Multiple players in the secondary have opted out or are dealing with an injury, and they may be relying on true freshmen who aren’t used to starting. It’s a lot to ask of them to hold Kaidon Salter without a touchdown for the whole game. And if Salter’s going to toss one, it’s likely to be Daniels on the receiving end. 

Daniels is getting +120 to score most places, but bet365 has him priced a bit higher. With the total in this game being so high, and Oregon having some questions in the secondary, I’ll gladly back Daniels to find paydirt at some point with that price.

CJ Daniels prop: Anytime touchdown (+125 at bet365)