Call it the Coachless Bowl, call it the Also-Rans Bowl, call it whatever you want. The Oregon Ducks and Oklahoma Sooners will not take the Alamo Bowl lightly, even if they are each now without the head coach that had them both in the national title conversation throughout much of this season.
As we work our way through the bowl season schedule, here are our free college football picks and predictions for Oregon vs Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl on Wednesday, December 29.
Oregon vs Oklahoma odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
When bowl lines opened the day after they were set early in December, Oklahoma was a mere field goal favorite. Within 24 hours that line ticked up to -4.5, where it has steadily remained the last two-plus weeks.
The total began at 62.0, but it fell to 61.0 the next day and then fell to 60.5 in the days before Christmas.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Oregon vs Oklahoma predictions
Predictions made on 12/24/2021 at 5:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Oregon vs Oklahoma game info
• Location: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
• Date: Wednesday, December 29, 2021
• Time: 9:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Oregon vs Oklahoma betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Oregon: Kayvon Thibodeaux DE (Out), Steve Stephens S (Questionable), Mykael Wright CB (Out), Ryan Walk OL (Out), Jaylon Redd WR (Out), Johnny Johnson III WR (Out).
Oklahoma: Spencer Rattler QB (Out), Theo Wease WR (Questionable), Drake Stoops WR (Questionable), Jeremiah Criddell DB (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Since freshman quarterback Caleb Williams took over as Oklahoma’s primary passer, the Sooners are 4-2-1 ATS. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oregon vs. Oklahoma.
Oregon vs Oklahoma picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Handicapping bowl games is always a challenging endeavor, one steeped as much in psychological assessment as it is in statistical profiles. That is never truer than when discussing teams that fancied themselves Playoff contenders, as each of these teams did well into November.
Typically, that armchair analysis would focus on veteran leadership and proven coaching staffs, except this contest will lack much of both. Opt-outs are now understandably the norm among players, even more so thanks to the ever-churning transfer portal. Oregon will be without star defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux, for example, and Oklahoma cannot turn back to quarterback Spencer Rattler. Thibodeaux has already shifted his focus to the NFL, while Rattler is looking toward South Carolina, surprisingly.
More notably, proven coaching staffs are not on hand here, either. Mario Cristobal left the Ducks in a rather clunky fashion to head to Miami, and Lincoln Riley bolted for USC in shocking manner. The usual motivational ploys are all out the window here.
An argument could be made to back either team based on its on-field performances. Oklahoma’s pass defense struggles mightily, ranking No. 99 in the country in passer rating against, a weakness that even Oregon’s middling offense should be able to exploit. Meanwhile, the Sooners have one of the strongest rushing games in the country, averaging 5.2 yards per carry, No. 23 in the nation, the kind of stat that nears one of the most reliable trends in bowl games.
But those arguments all assume both teams show up as they did nearly every Saturday this fall. Rosters that once had reasonable Playoff aspirations may not do that once they touch down in San Antonio.
So, let’s lean on the team that is being led by a proven motivator, someone many of these players consider a legend, not to mention the team that is traveling the shorter distance.
Bob Stoops has won bigger games than this before. He should be able to motivate Oklahoma to a notable showing here.
Prediction: Oklahoma -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
If we’re doubting the motivations here — and we are — then there is but one choice: Fade the defenses. Offensive players at least get to enjoy highlight-reel moments in exhibition games. The usual defensive accomplishments — a shutout, a sack, a turnover — create less long-term momentum in a game played in front of fewer fans than ever.
These are the reason Overs are the typical bowl-season trend, and the early results this year have been no different.
Furthermore, please note both aforementioned arguments about which team to favor were praising the offenses more than the defenses. Neither of these defenses is particularly stout, and if this game gets weird, neither of these defenses has shown itself to be one that stands up under pressure.
Prediction: Over 60.5 (-110)
Best bet
This Over should come through no matter which team does or does not show up motivated. And while Oklahoma is the more likely roster to play a real game, “more likely” is far from inspiring when discussing a “best” bet.
Bet on the Over as a result of that uncertainty. Go wild, Sooners. Go wild, Ducks. Kickstart that Heisman campaign early, Caleb Williams.
Pick: Over 60.5 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed our Oregon vs. Oklahoma picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?
Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
