Penn State vs Illinois Odds, Picks, and Predictions: No Fight in the Illini

The Penn State Nittany Lions have done nothing to dissuade the preseason hype surrounding them, hype suggesting a possible Big Ten championship run and a Playoff berth. But they have also had little opportunity to genuinely impress yet, beating West Virginia by 23 is worth only so much. Going on the road and hanging a crooked number on the Illinois Illini would warrant a bit more notice, particularly as a starting point for Penn State’s possible Big Ten title contention.

But with the college football odds just north of two touchdowns, is there value in backing the Nittany Lions on the road?

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Penn State vs. Illinois on September 16, with kickoff set for noon ET.

Penn State vs Illinois best odds

Penn State vs Illinois picks and predictions

The hook on -14.5 is terrifying. Every college football bettor wants to avoid it. It drove this handicap into a long dive looking at a possible Illinois team total Under, a number sitting at -16.5 with some slight juice to the Under.

But then reality set in. Penn State has done nothing but what was expected from it thus far this season. Have no trouble with West Virginia in what could be Neal Brown’s final season? Check. Run up the score on an FCS opponent? Check. Head to Champaign as a two-touchdown favorite? Check.

And there may be some logic to thinking that the Nittany Lions are just getting started.

No, really. Let’s put faith in James Franklin’s team, beyond the fact that he refused to kneel out the clock against the Mountaineers with only 10 seconds left on the clock, adding a touchdown to secure that three-touchdown cover.

Deep numbers and analytics may not be needed here. Just some willingness to believe in Penn State until given a reason not to. There has not been a reason not to yet. And it is 2-0 against the spread this season thanks to that gratuitous touchdown.

The Nittany Lions inarguably have one of the most talented rosters in the country, one riddled with “freaks,” to use a parroted late-summer talking point. Sophomore quarterback Drew Allar has completed 78.2 percent of his passes for an impressive 9.6 yards per attempt and four touchdowns. He has been efficient and potent, even if not completely turned loose yet. Penn State’s rushing attack is averaging 4.9 yards per carry (sack adjusted) while reaching the end zone eight times.

And many would posit the Nittany Lions are better defensively than offensively.

Why doubt this team to not cruise past Illinois?

The Illini were defense-driven last season as they went 8-4 in the regular season and climbed to No. 21 in the final SP+ rankings of 2022, including the No. 2 defense in the country, behind only Iowa’s. But this is not that Illini, as 2023 has quickly made clear.

Look at the rankings, with Illinois now ranked at No. 52 in the SP+ rankings with the No. 28 defense, and those still factor in a good amount of preseason and 2022 benefit of the doubt.

Look at the games, telling the story of that analytical fall. The Illini needed a last-second field goal to beat Toledo at home, and then they were effectively played off the field by Kansas last Friday. That is not an exaggeration. The Jayhawks led 34-7 late in the third quarter when Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer ripped off a 72-yard touchdown run — not something anyone can assume will continue to happen, especially against a defense littered with “freaks” — and then led a touchdown drive in the fourth quarter that could partly be attributed to Kansas slipping into prevent mode.

That final score of 34-23 was charitable. The Jayhawks had no trouble cutting through the supposedly vaunted Illini defense. And Penn State should not either. Given Franklin’s Week 1 showing, let’s not even worry about a backdoor cover. The Nittany Lions should be up enough late for it not to matter, regardless.

My best bet: Penn State -14.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Penn State vs Illinois same-game parlay

Penn State -14.5

Nicholas Singleton anytime TD

Luke Altmyer Under 30.5 rushing yards

+317 at FanDuel

Including Singleton here should be a cheap way to increase the value of the same-game parlay. Take him out and that two-leg version would pay only +204.

Nothing is guaranteed in this racket, but Singleton has scored in both games this season and found the end zone in eight of 13 games last year. Those raw numbers alone, scoring in 10 of 15 games, would suggest odds of -200. Factor in that Singleton is presumably better as a sophomore, that Illinois’s defense was exposed in all facets by Kansas but particularly in short-yardage scoring opportunities as it gave up four touchdowns of five yards or fewer, and those eight touchdowns Penn State has rushed for thus far this season, and Singleton’s number of -220 feels like it is far shorter than it should be.

As for Luke Altmyer’s odds of clearing 30.5 rushing yards, remember that 72-yard touchdown run he notched against the Jayhawks? He finished with 70 rushing yards. Such is the beauty of college football insisting sacks should count as lost rushing yards.

Penn State has one of the best defensive lines in the country, led by junior edge Chop Robinson. It runs deep, too, so even if the Nittany Lions start bringing in subs, Altmyer may struggle to stay upright. He was sacked twice by Toledo and six times by Kansas.

Each sack on Saturday afternoon will knock him backward from this rushing total, and it could be another half-dozen takedowns.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Penn State vs Illinois spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened at -14 in favor of Penn State on Sunday and the movement established this worrisome hook by the end of the afternoon. The total jumped from its open, reaching the market at 45.5 and hitting 48.5 by the time Sunday Night Football ended.

Logic suggests that there was renewed doubt in Illinois’s defense. As mentioned earlier, this was one of the absolute best defenses in the country last year, but with defensive coordinator Ryan Walters now the head coach at Purdue and multiple ball-hawking defensive backs in the NFL, the Illini defense has quickly returned to reality.

It is a grim reality. Kansas runs a unique offense, but it does so because it does not inherently have the athletes to dazzle otherwise. Penn State does, and then there is the lingering memory of Franklin’s delight in that last-second touchdown in the season opener, which not only covered the game but also propelled it to the Over.

Penn State vs Illinois betting trend to know

 Nine of Penn State’s last 13 games have gone Over their totals, including all five of the Nittany Lions’ last five road games.. Find more college football betting trends for Penn State vs Illinois.

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