Penn State vs Purdue Odds, Picks and Predictions: Boiling Over in the Opener

The Penn State Nittany Lions and Purdue Boilermakers open their season with a conference matchup at Ross-Ade Stadium on Thursday night. The Big 10 schedule did the Nittany Lions no favors here. This is a challenging opening game, especially when that opponent is familiar with you, as Purdue will be. 

The Boilermakers are looking to make a jump on their nine-win 2021 campaign, while for Penn State, it’s about rebounding, and it feels like a reasonably big season for head coach James Franklin. They’ve gone 11-11 over the past two seasons and finished last year dropping six of eight games.

Who will get this primetime game under the lights? Find out in our college football picks and predictions for Purdue vs. Penn State on Thursday, September 1.

Penn State vs Purdue odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Purdue opened this one as 3.5-point favorites, and the spread has stayed the same. The total opened up at around 54, and we’ve seen some action on the Under. As of writing, the total was about 52 at most locations. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Penn State vs Purdue predictions

• Prediction: Purdue +3.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 52 (-110)
• Best bet: Thompson anytime touchdown (+140)

Predictions made on 9/30/2022 at 5:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Penn State vs Purdue game info

• Location: Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN
• Date: Thursday, September 1, 2022
• Kick-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

Penn State vs Purdue betting preview

Weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Key injuries

Penn State: None.
Purdue: Tee Denson CB (Out).
Find our latest College football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Purdue is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Penn State vs. Purdue.

Penn State vs Purdue picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Jeff Brohm kind of has a thing for these spots. Stop me if you’ve heard of a big-time game in West Lafayette ending in a big-time upset for the Boilermakers. The win over Michigan State last season was just the latest in the string of upsets. While I’m not sure I can get there on the outright win, I will take the points with Purdue in this one. 

Before discussing the specifics of the teams, look at Jeff Brohm’s history:

Purdue is 8-3 ATS as a home underdog since 2018, a season after he arrived. In addition, he’s gone 8-3 ATS against ranked opponents since then. Penn State isn’t precisely ranked, but given they are just one spot out of the Top 25, it’s reasonable to consider them of similar quality. 

Now, as far as things go on the field. 

Quarterback Aidan O’Connell returns to Purdue after passing for over 3,500 yards en route to second-team All-Big Ten honors. However, he’ll be dealing with losing his top two receivers, namely David Bell, who declared for the NFL after being named Big Ten receiver of the year honors. This will be an adjustment, but Penn State will have an adjustment to make in learning a new defensive system with a new defensive coordinator. I think that’s ultimately what makes the difference here. Brohm had routinely found offense with creative play calling — including a season ago when they had the second-best passing offense in the Big 10. He’ll be able to do it again, aided by an offensive line that returns all of its starters and a tight-end group stacked with experience. 

My Power Rankings give Penn State a two-point edge here. But without diving too deep into the numbers, we’re getting an offense led by veterans going up against a defense learning a new system in one of the most challenging places to play in the Big Ten. That’s enough to back Purdue. 

Prediction: Purdue +3.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

Purdue’s offense ranked in the Top 40 of efficiency. I don’t question them being able to score. Brohm has built enough of a track record of success in scoring points along with developing players that I believe they can overcome their offensive departures. Again, I love the angle of Purdue play-callers getting a stab at a new defensive system and a new DC. Add in the fact that Penn State was routinely dominated at the point of attack a season ago, and I feel better about Purdue scoring.

The reverse of this is the Purdue defense. It’s been an issue since Jeff Brohm’s arrival. Like Purdue, Penn State returns a solid quarterback in Sean Clifford. He’s one of the most experienced pass throwers in the country. The offensive line has some question marks, but I’m trusting a leaky Purdue defense and a professional quarterback to do enough to push this Over.

Prediction: Over 52 (-110 at Circa)

Best bet

I trust the Purdue offense to score and develop. But, I also trust Brohm to find creative ways to get the ball in the hands of his best players. 

Broc Thompson appears to be the player most poised to feel the void left by WR David Bell’s absence. He burst onto the scene in the Music City Bowl win over Tennessee when he had 217 yards receiving and two touchdowns. This one is simple and is at the forefront of our handicap. I trust the experience of Purdue against a new defensive system for Penn State. I’ll take what I view to be Purdue’s most complete receiver to score in this one. 

Broc Thompson prop pick: anytime touchdown (+140 at DraftKings)

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