The college football world turns its attention to Week 7 and it’s a doozy featuring several marquee matchups.
One of the weekend's top games sees the undefeated No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions travel to the Coliseum to face the USC Trojans, a Big Ten Conference newcomer.
Read on for college football picks and predictions for Penn State vs. USC on Saturday, October 12.
Penn State vs USC predictions
Early spread lean
USC +5.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The USC Trojans have committed six turnovers across their last two games, making it difficult to get an accurate read on how this team would perform if it played a clean contest. Lincoln Riley’s squad still pulled off the 38-21 win — and covered the spread — against Wisconsin but couldn’t overcome a -2 turnover margin in last week’s 24-17 defeat to Minnesota.
D’Anton Lynn’s arrival at USC has been a godsend for a defensive unit that has been troubled for years. The Trojans are allowing just 18.4 ppg and have not surrendered 30 points in a game yet this season. Offensively, they rank 15th in success rate but haven’t been able to generate many big plays, checking in at 125th in explosiveness.
The Penn State Nittany Lions have cruised to a 5-0 record but the lone close contest is a bit of a concern as Bowling Green State gave James Franklin’s team everything it could handle in a 34-27 win.
The Nittany Lions grade out as an elite team on both sides of the ball, ranking ninth in success rate on offense and sixth on defense. If Lynn’s arrival at USC marks one of the most impactful coordinator hires of the offseason, Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is another as he’s changed this offense’s fortunes in a short time.
I don’t love this spot for the Nittany Lions as they’re hitting the road after four straight home games. This also forecasts as a low-scoring game, which has me leaning toward taking the points with the underdog. While USC hasn’t allowed a 30-point game yet this year, Penn State has scored more than 30 points just once in three tries against FBS opponents
Early Over/Under lean
Under 47.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Kotelnicki has this offense moving very well from an efficiency standpoint but the Nittany Lions are moving slower than molasses, ranking 96th in plays per minute (1.81). This leads to a decrease in possessions and is a big reason why they have cashed Under tickets in four of their first five games.
Penn State shouldn’t have many issues running the ball as its rushing attack has been effective (15th in rushing success rate) behind star backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen and a solid offensive line (16th in line yards). USC’s defensive weakness has been on the ground, where it ranks 93rd in EPA per rush.
While the Nittany Lions have been moving the chains, they haven’t gained many big plays on the ground (123rd in rushing explosiveness). This likely means the clock will be ticking when Penn State has the ball, and USC shuts down air attacks (third in passing explosiveness) so it’s unlikely we see many shot plays.
On the flip side, Penn State has one of the nastiest defenses in the country yet again in 2024. The Nittany Lions are allowing just 11.4 ppg while checking in at 14th in EPA per play and ninth in success rate.
Their weakness has been allowing big plays (93rd in explosiveness), but USC doesn’t project as an offense that will make them pay (125th in explosiveness).
The Trojans haven’t been lighting up the scoreboard, which is typical with a Lincoln Riley team. They’ve scored 28 points or more just twice this season and one came against a lowly Utah State team allowing 41.4 ppg, so it can hardly count.
An offensive explosion is unlikely given the decreased number of possessions caused by Penn State’s offensive tempo. That would mean that a few chunk plays need to happen for the points to pile up, but both offenses rank outside the Top 100 in explosiveness
Penn State vs USC live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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