Texas A&M’s walloping of Missouri could have been story enough for the week. It put the Aggies alone atop the SEC at 3-0, no one else able to join them in Week 6. There did not need to be more chaos.
Then Vanderbilt beat Alabama, Arkansas beat Tennessee, Minnesota upset USC, Washington won as a favorite against Michigan, and the Woke Agenda had not even taken the field yet in Berkeley.
There was more chaos. The entire College Football Playoff conversation has changed.
This should not have been considered a surprise. That this week has a commonly-known name underscores how far from rare it is. The annual “Blood Week” always arrives; this year it just arrived a little bit earlier than usual.
What should we remember from Week 6, and what should we disregard in terms of the college football odds?
College football Week 6 things you should not overreact to
Do not overreact, thinking more of this is to come.
Yes, there will be more upsets this season. Of course.
But do not expect another four-possession underdog to upset a Top-5 team. That it has happened twice this season — Northern Illinois was a 28.5-point underdog when it topped No. 5 Notre Dame — is absurd. The first loss could be somewhat written off as the Irish being overvalued based on one win. Vanderbilt upsetting Alabama is a bit harder to minimize.
Alabama closed as a consensus 22.5-point favorite and suffered its biggest upset loss since 2007. (Louisiana-Monroe).
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) October 5, 2024
According to @ESPNStatsInfo, it’s the first an AP No. 1 team lost as at least a three-touchdown favorite since 2008, when USC lost to Oregon State as a 25-point…
Every Top-10 team for the rest of the season will be on alert. Steve Sarkisian was already using the clip of Notre Dame’s loss to focus his team. Now every coach in the SEC can point to the No. 1 team in the country as another example.
Again, upsets will happen, but this weekend’s chaos is not a certain signal of unprecedented parity in the 2024 season.
Douglas' advice: When you see Wake Forest as an 18-point underdog against Clemson next weekend, do not be inclined to take the Demon Deacons. In fact, jump on the Tigers at anything under three touchdowns. Wake Forest’s defense is terrible, its pass defense most terrible. The improving Clemson passing offense directed by Cade Klubnik should enjoy its day.
Do not overreact to movement in the futures markets.
In Sunday’s earliest hours, BetMGM has now established Ohio State as a clear favorite to win the national championship at +325, with Texas next up at +450 and Georgia at +500. The loss to Vanderbilt dropped Alabama to +600 from +375. The Tide’s fall also buoyed the Dawgs from sitting north of +600 a week ago.
If there's any value to be found in those teams now, it is in Alabama, the only one among them to have had significant movement.
To make it to the SEC Championship Game and have a chance at a first-round bye in the Playoff, the Tide may need to suffer no more than one more conference loss, with trips to Tennessee, LSU, and Oklahoma still awaiting.
The same can be said of Georgia, with trips to Texas and Mississippi looming. Having avoided any stumble thus far, the Longhorns can still probably afford a defeat and keep decent hopes of a first-round bye, which is to say, an inside track to the SEC Championship Game.
But that's the catch. This jostling in the standings is to reach the SEC title game. These are the three contenders, no matter any objection you may hear from Mississippi, Tennessee, or Texas A&M fans. And Alabama still has the tiebreaker over Georgia, as well as an easier remaining schedule, if only for not having to worry about a trip to Texas.
So the Tide's national championship odds nearly doubled, when the only long-term shift caused by Saturday’s loss is now Alabama can lose probably only one more time to still reach the SEC title game. Doubling the odds because of that added risk was extreme.
Douglas' advice: That is not to say, go bet the Tide to win the national title. The only two teams this keyboard has backed have been Ohio State and Texas, and there has yet to be any suggestion to change that thinking. This is all to say, keep all long-term considerations in mind when pondering futures bets. A loss now does not necessarily change the path to a conference championship game and, therefore, does not necessarily change the path into the Playoff.
The Biggest Upsets In College Football Today. 😱
— Covers (@Covers) October 6, 2024
🔸Vanderbilt (+1400) def. #1 Alabama (-24)
🔸Arkansas (+375) def. #4 Tennessee (-13.5)
🔸Minnesota (+270) def. #11 USC (-9)
🔸SMU (+200) def. #22 Louisville (-7)
What a day of football!@BetMGM pic.twitter.com/q01PBXV82G
For the same reasons, do not overreact to each game in the Heisman market.
Jalen Milroe threw for 310 yards and a touchdown while rushing in one more on Saturday. He was not the reason Alabama lost to Vanderbilt. The Tide defense can look inward when trying to understand how that happened. (And that is why Ohio State and Texas should be considered national title contenders long before Alabama; their offenses should feast in that hypothetical matchup.)
Yet Milroe’s Heisman odds fell to +1,000 at BetMGM from +200 before the weekend. These odds fluctuate too much.
At some point, Colorado will lose three games in a row and Travis Hunter’s steam will be subsequently diminished. The narrative cycle around Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will eventually lament the quality of his competition.
Yet, they are the favorites atop the Heisman board, Jeanty at +225 and Hunter at +320.
Douglas' advice: Do not make any Heisman bet based on one weekend. And if pondering viable possibilities right now, the two that stand out are Miami quarterback Cam Ward (+360) and Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers (+2,000). Ward has pulled off escape acts the last two weeks, but a fortunate schedule should remove the need for those moving forward, and a 12-0 Miami would earn him an invite to New York City. Ewers will return from injury to two high-profile games that could immediately put him atop these odds.
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College football Week 6 things you definitely should react to
Do overreact to how bad some teams are. It may seem early for that dismissal, but that is a reality of modern college football.
An annual tradition in these notebooks is to create a growing list of “quick fade” teams. It's usually in flux until mid-to-late October, at which point identifying the teams that had quit on the season before oddsmakers identify them provides distinct betting value.
That actionable moment has moved up in the era of the transfer portal. Many of these teams already have less depth than they used to. Some of them will be without coaches sooner than in the past, the portal windows expediting the coaching carousel timing.
That list right now has seven teams on it for various reasons:
- Purdue: Boiler down. Wisconsin’s offense is far from explosive, yet scored 52 points on Purdue.
- Florida State, UTEP, Tulsa, Kennesaw State, UAB: The spread moved against each of these double-digit underdogs last week, despite situations somewhat logically siding with them and all playing at home. They were then each blown out. Sometimes those moves should educate our future thoughts.
- Troy: It is not Gerad Parker’s fault much of Troy’s 2023 talent with remaining eligibility followed Jon Sumrall to Tulane.
Such a collapse this season is not really on Gerad Parker. It's simply the backside of the transfer portal. Too many Troy pieces went with Jon Sumrall to Tulane.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 4, 2024
Douglas' advice: Don’t get out over your skis. Still shop. Still seek to avoid being on the wrong side of key numbers, but also do not hesitate to bet against Purdue (Illinois -18), UTEP (Western Kentucky -21), and UAB (Army -21). Those numbers are only projected spreads.
Nominees to soon join this list: Kent State, North Carolina, San Diego State, Southern Mississippi, UCLA.
Do continue to overreact to the roster damage done by late-cycle coaching hires.
This is simply a symptom of the NCAA reopening a roster’s ability to transfer out whenever a coaching change occurs. That damage to the roster has not been properly calculated, and it shows up in power ratings and the means that yield the lines we so worry about.
To date, the nine programs that hired new coaches in mid-January or later are 13-24 against the spread, not counting Washington’s outright and ATS win against Michigan this weekend, given both teams fit this description. Continuing to exclude that game, those teams went 1-4 on Saturday.
Douglas' advice: Again, still shop. Avoid being on the wrong side of key numbers, but if already considering fading these teams, then let this push you to the window: Georgia State (Old Dominion +2.5), Buffalo (Toledo -10), Washington (Iowa -3), Arizona (BYU -2.5), San Jose State (Colorado State +13), and UCLA (Minnesota -13). Those numbers are, again, only projected spreads.
And remember, everything is college football. Even “Saturday Night Live.”
Nashville native Nate Bargatze hosted “Saturday Night Live” this week. Dress rehearsal began less than an hour after Vanderbilt sealed its upset of Alabama. Presumably, the comedian was working on the show all evening. Yet, he recognized his hometown’s moment of glory as he took the stage a few hours after the FirstBank Stadium goalposts reached the Cumberland River.
Anchor Down ⚓️@natebargatze | @VandyFootball pic.twitter.com/oXjbzYYElw
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) October 6, 2024
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