College Football Week 10 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: SMU Puts the Clamps On Again

It’s hard to believe that the college football regular season is already winding down. We got our first set of College Football Playoff Rankings and the teams at the top weren’t too surprising, unless you were Washington, of course.

It also means we are getting to an interesting point in the season, where programs are being divided into those who have their sights on becoming bowl-eligible and those who have given up. Today, we look at a pair of SEC teams looking to do the former.

Then I go back to the well for what have become some of my favorite college football odds in recent weeks: Fading Southern Methodist’s opponent team totals. The Ponies have one of the most underrated defenses in the country and they are going to keep doing their thing vs. the Owls.

I break down those Week 10 matchups and more as I bring you my best free college football picks in the Triple Option.

College football Week 10 picks

• Florida -4.5 (-110)
• Kentucky -4.5 (-110)
• Rice TT Under 23.5 (-125)

Picks made on November 3. Click each pick to read full analysis.

College football Week 10 odds, picks, and predictions

Arkansas vs Florida prediction

Well, after getting handed a 43-20 beatdown in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, Billy Napier now knows his Florida Gators team still has a little ways to go before getting on Georgia’s level.

But that doesn't mean Florida can’t have a successful season that can be used to build toward getting to said level. And a successful season means returning to a bowl game, which the Gators are one more win away from qualifying for. And they’re in a perfect bounce-back spot to get that win this week when the Arkansas Razorbacks make a trip to The Swamp.

Florida enters this SEC matchup with a 5-3 record — with the three losses coming to Georgia, at Kentucky, and at Utah — and has solid wins against Tennessee and South Carolina. So, all-in-all not a terrible season at this point.

Quarterback Graham Mertz has done a solid job in Napier’s offense, completing 75.8% of his passes for 2,102 yards with 14 touchdowns compared to just two interceptions. Florida’s offense is at its best when running backs Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne Jr. get rolling and can take some pressure off Mertz. They both average more than 5.5 yards per carry. The defense is also a bit underrated, ranking 22nd in the country in defensive success rate.

All that to say, these Gators have more than enough teeth to chomp down on these Hogs.

That’s because the Razorbacks are a mess. Arkansas enters this game at 2-6 and is winless in SEC play. The two wins this season are against FCS Western Carolina and Kent State, one of the worst teams in the FBS. The Razorbacks even lost to BYU and are arguably coming off their worst defeat to date, a 7-3 loss to Mississippi State.

The Hogs offense is stagnant, ranking 123rd in yards per play and rank 90th in offensive success rate. It got so bad the team had to fire its offensive coordinator. 

This is just a bad spot for the Razorbacks. They're heading to a hostile environment in The Swamp facing a team looking to become bowl eligible. Besides. Look at the jerseys the Gators are wearing:

See you in The Swamp. 🐊⚫️ pic.twitter.com/tFjlXbH6n9

— Florida Gators Football (@GatorsFB) November 2, 2023

Gators by a million. Not really, but they will cover the 4.5 points at home.

PICK: Florida -4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Kentucky vs Mississippi State prediction

Let’s look at another SEC team trying to become bowl-eligible this weekend: the Kentucky Wildcats. Kentucky has hit a bit of a rough patch. The Wildcats were 5-0 heading into their matchup against Georgia about a month ago and promptly got stomped.

Unfortunately, they followed that loss up with back-to-back disappointing performances against Missouri and Tennessee. So now, Kentucky heads to Starkville with a 5-3 record. But this losing streak may be providing us with some value in this SEC showdown.

Straight up, Kentucky is the more talented team in this matchup. On offense, the Wildcats have relied on running back Ray Davis, who has rumbled 832 yards and nine scores this season. And despite the loss last week, quarterback Devin Leary finally had himself a good SEC game, throwing for 372 yards with two touchdowns and no picks. And Leary can build on that performance against the Bulldogs.

Things have not gone well for Mississippi State this season. The Bulldogs are 4-4 but their lone SEC win was a befuddling 7-3 victory over struggling Arkansas. They’ve also scored more than 14 points just once in five SEC matchups and rank 99^th in offensive success rate.

And while the offense has struggled, the defense has been getting torched. Specifically, by opposing passing attacks. The Bulldogs rank 95^th in opponent yards per pass attempt, 90^th in opponent EPA/pass, and 131^st in defensive success rate vs. the pass. That’s pretty ugly.

Leary should be able to take advantage of this matchup, particularly when Mississippi State will have to respect Davis coming out of the backfield. That balance will be too much for the Bulldogs to stop and they will be unable to keep up.

Kentucky gets back on track and earns bowl eligibility, beating Mississippi State by at least a touchdown.

PICK: Kentucky -4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

SMU vs Rice prediction

This play is becoming a tradition for this column. But if you keep overlooking how good this Southern Methodist defense is and giving me high team totals for SMU opponents, I’m going to keep taking the Under.

I feel like I’ve been screaming about this for weeks, but the Mustangs defense is not only arguably the best among Group of Five teams, but one of the most underrated in the entire country.

The Ponies’ defense is so tough because they're a veteran bunch who can do it all. Eight starters returned for 2023, meaning it was the second year in Scott Symons’ system. They can stuff the run. They shut down the pass. And they can rush the quarterback.

SMU ranks fifth in the country in opponent yards per play when facing FBS opponents, eighth in opponent yards per pass, 14th in opponent yards per rush, and 13th in sack rate. Overall, that means SMU ranks 15th in defensive success rate.

The Mustangs have been particularly dominant through their first four conference games. They’ve allowed an average of just 249.8 yards and given up a total of 36 points. 

This week’s opponents are the Rice Owls. Rice has put up some solid scoring numbers this season behind journeyman quarterback JT Daniels, but the Owls’ schedule has been soft, and the offense is largely one-dimensional with the passing game. Rice also ranks a stunning 120th in EPA/pass. The Owls also have issues with turnovers, ranking 88th in giveaways per game vs. FBS opponents.

Being one-dimensional isn't going to work well against this SMU defense. The Mustangs will shut down the Owls’ passing attack, and create a few turnovers along the way, keeping the home team from putting up too many points. 

SMU hasn’t allowed more than 16 points in a game to non-Big 12 teams this season. Rice might score a few more, but not enough to go Over its team total.

PICK: Rice team total Under 23.5 (-125 at bet365)

Week 10 odds and upcoming games

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