College Football Picks and Predictions Week 2: Broncos, Falcons and Chanticleers, Oh My

There are few guarantees in life and fewer in sports betting. We all know this. But here are two guarantees for you: First of all, yours truly will not maintain the 3-0 pace set in last week’s best bets column. It was a delightful start and replicating it now would be relished, but let’s be realistic here. This handicapper will get some picks wrong this month. It is inevitable.

The only thing more assured is that the usual weekly columnist will only win this month. Well, aside from sleep, Andrew Caley is going to lose sleep.

He made the single best college football futures bet of the season by welcoming Nora Jane Caley to the world at the end of August. Why bet on Michigan to win the Big Ten, LSU to win the national championship, or Jordan Travis to win the Heisman Trophy — all bets Andrew made publicly — when you can bet on a beautiful baby girl. 

Congrats, Andrew. Next week we’ll discuss your understanding of timing. For now, let’s get into some college football odds — and Week 2 picks — that have absolutely nothing to do with Michigan (UNLV? Yawn), LSU (Anyone seen Harold Perkins?), or Jordan Travis (kudos). Instead, let’s delve into the Group of Five.

Yes, all three of these picks are games you may not have considered. The goal is not to give you the biggest games of the week, the goal is to find the best plays. And sometimes, sometimes that comes on teal turf, sometimes it’s on blue turf and sometimes it’s in Huntsville, Texas.

That and more as the Triple Option tackles Covers’ best college football picks and predictions for Week 2.

College football picks and predictions for Week 2

Jacksonville State at Coastal Carolina Under 61 (-110)

Neither of these offenses deserves the trust necessary for a total this high. Coastal Carolina’s offense looked immensely flawed at UCLA last week, and while the Bruins are a promising team, their strength is not their defense and certainly not their passing defense. Grayson McCall averaging just 6.5 yards per pass attempt stood out as a red flag for the Chanticleers moving forward. Realize, that he averaged 10.23 yards per pass attempt across the last three seasons.

But Jamey Chadwell is gone, and Coastal Carolina’s offense looks set to plummet to earth without him. Can Chanticleers fly? Should the pun here have been about a bird crashing to the ground? Would that have been too morbid?

Meanwhile, Jacksonville State is simply scared to throw the ball, and rightfully so. Through two games, the Gamecocks have dropped back to pass just 41 times while rushing 98 times (counting sacks as dropbacks). Rich Rodriguez is not escalating the offense as we may remember him doing at FBS stops in his past — West Virginia, Michigan, and Arizona. He does not have that faith in either of his two quarterbacks, underscoring the old belief that if you have two quarterbacks, you might as well have none.

Jacksonville State may find success running the ball against Coastal Carolina, though UCLA rushed for just 157 yards on 30 carries (sack adjusted), but a methodical rushing attack does not pile up points. Too much has to go right consecutively. And as long as McCall is misfiring, the Chanticleers will not hang a crooked number.

A total this high is typically reliant on two competent offenses. Neither of these currently conjure that confidence, no matter how vulnerable Coastal Carolina may be against the run or how unknown Jacksonville State’s defense is at this point.

Boise State +3.5 (-110)

Part of last week’s 3-0 mark was betting against these Broncos, but more than betting against them, it was betting on Washington. The Huskies’ passing attack is going to tear apart most teams this season. Michael Penix Jr. will abuse plenty of teams, maybe even nearing his 450-yard, five-touchdown performance against Boise State. Just look at his Heisman Trophy odds, already cut in half to +850 from a late-August number of +1600 or +1800.

That was not the Broncos playing badly. That was Penix being Penix.

Know who does not like throwing the ball that much? Gus Malzahn. When considering game state, only 29 teams ran the ball more often than Central Florida last season, per cfb-graphs.com. And that was with good reason, the Knights had a potent rush game and a below-average passing attack.

Boise State excelled defending the run last season, ranking No. 22 in expected points added per rush against. Of its 3-3-5 defense, half of the front-six returned this season, supplemented by some known depth pieces as well as some Power Five transfer defensive linemen. It should be able to stall the Central Florida offense rather consistently, giving Broncos dual-threat quarterback Taylen Green a chance to take control of the game.

There was some thought here of taking the moneyline (+146 at FanDuel), but let’s be a touch more conservative and stick with the spread. After going 2-4 ATS at home in his first season as Boise State head coach, Andy Avalos improved to 4-2 last season, including 1-0 in the only home game with a spread within a touchdown.

Air Force -13.5 (-110)

Dear Sam Houston State, are you aware you need to play offense, in addition to defense, in college football? This isn’t a rhetorical question or a commentary on your playing style choices. It is a literal point, you have to play offense.

The Bearkats had two drives gain more than 21 yards last week in a 14-0 loss at BYU. They had more drives (three) net negative yardage. They averaged 3.2 yards per play. Take out four completed passes of more than 18 yards, the longest being 24 yards, and that average falls to 1.9 plays on 53 other offensive snaps.

Sam Houston State has no discernible offense, which is going to be a problem going against Air Force. The Falcons may have the best defense in the Mountain West. It is magnitudes better than the Cougars’ defense. Just as one reference point: ESPN’s SP+ considers BYU’s defense to be the No. 54 in the country, far behind Air Force’s at No. 17.

Yet this spread is less than two touchdowns. Do bookmakers expect a notable home-field advantage in Huntsville because this is the BearKat's first home game at the FBS level? Good luck with that.

Week 2 odds and upcoming games

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic