College Football Week 6 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Trojan Defense Scratched up by Wildcats

Sometimes the front office makes the call. Sometimes the results in front of your face, no matter how encouraging and obvious, can still be overruled by the decision-makers. Sometimes a strong stretch gets cut short for a supposed greater good.

Stepping in for senior betting analyst Andrew Caley while he enjoyed paternity leave was always on an interim basis, and going 10-5 in my college football picks across the last five weeks was not going to change that. Management made up its mind long before the games began.

That does not mean the approach changes going into this final week. Sure, a few fastballs might be impressive and dramatic, but betting Maryland to beat Ohio State as a three-touchdown underdog or Arizona to top USC as a +21.5 college football odds underdog would not fit with the proven methods that got us to +5.28 units in the last five weeks.

Nor would betting on Central Florida outright at +110 odds, even if that is tempting. The Knights’ defense is just too porous, no matter who starts at quarterback for Kansas.

When the front office makes a decision with numbers in mind, the best approach is to stick with the proven approach. Pitch to the batter at the plate, not to the decision-maker in the suites.

Was this intro entirely a forced Blue Jays reference as a parting barb to Caley before he returns to take these reins? Perhaps, but nothing said was false, either. And if yours truly is José Berríos, then we are not going to walk off the mound after issuing a walk.

Finding a heavy favorite, a heavier underdog, and an inflated total will keep everybody guessing and provide variety to this week’s best bets as the Triple Option offers Covers’ best free college football picks and predictions for Week 6.

College football Week 6 picks

• Notre Dame-Louisville Under 54.5 (-110)
•  Clemson -21 (-110)
• Arizona +21.5 (-110)

Picks made on October 5. Click each pick to read full analysis.

College football Week 6 odds, picks, and predictions

Notre Dame vs Louisville prediction: Under 54.5

The preseason hype around Jack Plummer’s reunion with Jeff Brohm at Louisville never made sense. From 2019 to 2021, Plummer was Brohm’s primary quarterback at Purdue on 14 different Saturdays, and the Boilermakers went 5-9 in those games. That was not solely the result of the competition: Plummer averaged 6.9 yards per pass attempt. He was not a great fit for Brohm’s pass-happy offense then, but the preseason hype this August insisted a year at Cal had made Plummer that much better.

It never made sense.

Yet, here Louisville is, ranked and 5-0 heading into a primetime home game. The Cardinals are averaging 37 points per game. There should be no doubt in their offense, right?

Wrong.

Dig further.

Against halfway-decent pass defenses, Louisville has stalled. Let’s completely ignore FCS-level Murray State. And then realize Georgia Tech and Boston College rank in the Bottom 5 in the country in expected points added per dropback against. Yes, those numbers were hurt by facing the Cardinals, but ranking No. 129 and No. 133, respectively, goes a good bit deeper than one opponent.

That leaves Indiana (EPA pass defense No. 83) and North Carolina State (No. 49). Louisville scored 21 and 13 points against them, respectively.

The Cardinals are entirely big-play dependent. In those two games, they had 11 drives fail, including three turnovers, two three-and-outs, and two more that were effectively three-and-outs. They put together six sustained drives, managing one touchdown, three field goals, and an end-zone interception on them, as well as a missed field goal. And three big-play touchdowns.

Focus on those sustained drives. Louisville averaged 2.67 points per sustained drive against those two halfway decent defenses. Without the big plays, the Cardinals offense halts too often.

Now, the big plays can be counted on, but not to the rate at which Louisville has enjoyed them. In four FBS games, the Cardinals have scored 10 explosive touchdowns, though five came against Boston College. Broadly speaking, only one such play should be assumed per game.

And against Notre Dame, one such play might be ambitious. The Irish have given up exactly one non-garbage-time big-play touchdown this year, a 61-yard rush to Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson. Louisville running back Jawhar Jordan is good, and receiver Jamari Thrash is a blur, but neither is on the level of Henderson.

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman coordinated the Irish defense against Brohm and Plummer in 2021, when they were both at Purdue. Freeman’s defense gave up 13 points, the touchdown coming on a 2-yard pass. With a roster recruited and designed for Brohm’s offense — even with 25 transfers in Brohm’s first year at his alma mater, some roster holes still persist — the Boilermakers did not manage a big-play touchdown and had only three explosive plays on 63 snaps before garbage time.

Freeman may enjoy a better defense right now, one disciplined enough to protect against big plays, so solving Brohm and Plummer again should not be an issue. Cutting out Louisville’s big plays will all-but curtail the Cardinals’ offense, and that alone should push this game toward an Under.

PICK: Under 54.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Wake Forest vs Clemson prediction: Clemson -21

A pillar of proper college football handicapping in the 2020s is having a finely-tuned Twitter feed on Saturdays. As much as the social media platform may be struggling these days, there is no better way to keep track of 50-60 games in a day. None of us can watch them all, let’s be realistic. But that feed can inform what needs to be looked into later.

So it was noted last Saturday when Conor O’Neill — a beat writer on both the Duke and the Wake Forest beats — tweeted, “So, who actually has a good offensive line in the ACC?”

The exact timestamp makes it clear O’Neill had the wondering while Clemson beat up on Syracuse, a 31-14 Tigers victory in a game with a touchdown spread. The Orange had not been perfect up front in their first four games, giving up 10 sacks for a total loss of 38 yards, but things fell apart against Clemson.

The Tigers racked up five sacks for a loss of 29 yards before the fourth quarter, including back-to-back sacks on Syracuse’s second drive. They then forced a fumble on the first play of the third Orange drive, which quickly led to a 14-0 Clemson lead.

Syracuse does not have a strong run game, but being held to 4.45 yards per carry (sacks adjusted) on 29 attempts was a greater issue given that early deficit.

To be blunt, Wake Forest’s offensive line is no better than Syracuse’s. That’s part of why the Demon Deacons’ run the slow-mesh offense, trying to put defensive linemen into binds to slow the pass rush. Nonetheless, Wake Forest has given up 18 sacks this season, costing 121 yards. Most notably, Georgia Tech sacked senior quarterback Mitch Griffis eight times for 36 yards. Most concerningly, Old Dominion got to him four times for 44 yards.

Clemson has never much cared about the delayed handoffs, charging forward with abandon. The Demon Deacons survived that in years past only because Sam Hartman was quality under pressure. Griffis is not.

Still one of the best defensive front sevens in the country, the Tigers should feast. Hence a three-touchdown spread. But here is the thing about defensive fronts: They don’t stop. When a four-man rush is creating pressure, a prevent defense will not lessen that. Griffis’s day will not become calmer in a blowout. It may just get worse.

PICK: Clemson -21 (-110 at Caesar’s)

Arizona at USC prediction: Arizona +21.5

Missing: USC’s defense.
Last seen: Under Clay Helton.
If found, please call Trojans defensive coordinator Alex Grinch at 213-740-4204.

No, that’s not being too harsh. That’s what happens when you give up 564 total yards to Colorado. Giving up 21 points to the Buffaloes through 40 minutes was embarrassing enough. A 41-21 game with 20 minutes left is not entirely over, but to discount Colorado’s yardage after that, the Buffaloes still gained 306 yards through fewer than three quarters. Admitting this is flawed math, Colorado was on pace to gain 459 total yards even before USC dropped into prevent coverage.

Arizona turned to sophomore quarterback Noah Fifita last week, replacing injured starter Jayden de Laura, and Fifita delivered against Washington, throwing three touchdowns with only one interception, not entirely exposing the Huskies defense but certainly making it worry.

Statistically, Washington’s defense has a similar profile to USC’s, slightly better against the run than the pass, neither category for either defense particularly elite. Fifita’s modest success should translate to this weekend.

For that matter, the Trojans’ offense is on par with the Huskies’. When they meet on Nov. 4, it will be entertaining.

Washington managed just 31 points against Arizona, and it’s not as if it wasted a pile of possessions. It hardly had a pile of possessions, the Wildcats shortening the game to just eight for the high-octane Huskies offense. That is an impact a triple-option service academy could respect.

Washington had two quality drives fall short of the end zone, one a field goal and the other a fumble. So, on six quality possessions, it averaged 5.17 points. Across a season, that would be among the best numbers in the country.

Arizona simply kept Washington in check for the most part, managing the game precisely to Jedd Fisch’s wants.

If Fifita can near 20 points again, a shortened game will keep USC within three touchdowns.

PICK: Arizona +21.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

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