Too many potential greats have doomed their careers into one-hit-wonder status by starting too strongly. If Nic Pizzolatto had not so wowed the world with the first season of “True Detective,” then the second and third seasons would not be so forgotten in comparison. If James Agee had not clearly deserved a Pulitzer for “Let Us Now Praise Famous Men,” then “A Death in the Family” receiving one would be seen less as a makeup award and more as the confirmation of Agee’s brilliance. If I had started 3-0 as a substitute in this weekly column, then any follow-up would have been seen as a disappointment.
Perhaps opening 1-2 last week was not intentional, but for long-term growth, it was a promising development. At least, that’s what I have told myself.
While Covers Senior Betting Analyst Andrew Caley continues to (hopefully) enjoy his honeymoon, let’s try to surge past his season’s offerings. Another 1-2 effort would keep yours truly ahead of Caley’s pace (28.1 percent, 4-11-1) through the season’s first five weeks, but a mere 2-1 would surge this stretch past his entire season (43.2 percent, 9-12-1).
And 3-0 would throw some doubt into our editors’ minds about rewarding Caley’s absenteeism by giving him his old column back. But let’s not put the cart before the horse.
Speaking of horses, we’ll start with a mascot riding in on one before heading to the Midwest for what should be the year’s dullest game.
Those and more as the Triple Option returns with Covers’ never-a-one-hit-wonder substitute and his best college football picks and predictions for Week 9.
College football picks and predictions for Week 9
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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College football Week 9 picks
Florida State +9.5 (-110)
You know that old story someone always claims about a college essay on risk-taking? The prompt was, “What is the biggest risk you ever took?” and the loudmouth insisting this is true supposedly just wrote, “This.”
Well, the only reason this handicap is more than a sentence long is to avoid coming across like that boaster. That sentence would be the rhetorical question, “Can Clemson outscore anyone by 10 points this year?”
But sincerely, the Tigers are 0-7 ATS this year. That is not a reflection suggesting they are overdue. It is instead quite clear Clemson is so far removed from the expectations set by any numbers or power rankings that the analytical math cannot keep up with its fall.
In the long run, the Tigers will not be this bad. They will end up a Top-10 team next preseason. But this is not about the long run, it is about now, and there is no reason to have any faith in Clemson right now.
Florida State, meanwhile, has finally found some health along its offensive line to spark not only three straight wins but two straight covers.
The time to fade the Seminoles has passed. It is, however, still time to fade Clemson.
Boston College +6.5 (-110)
Now Syracuse, there is a team that is due to regress to the mean. Though slowing down its tempo and adjusting its offensive approach, not enough has changed about the Orange this year to explain going 7-1 ATS.
Syracuse’s offensive rebrand has hinged on committing to the run. The Orange have run the ball 342 times compared to 210 pass attempts this year. Last season, Syracuse ran the ball 320 times in 11 games while throwing it 336 times. Clearly, something has shifted, and it has largely worked for the 4-4 Orange.
Meanwhile, Boston College’s greatest strength is its run defense. When considering rush defense EPA, the Eagles rank No. 35 in the country, per cfb-graphs.com.
Syracuse quarterback Garrett Shrader could shred that defense as Louisville’s Malik Cunningham did a week ago, but even then, Boston College lost 28-14. It was hardly a blowout.
The Cardinals are better than the Orange. Syracuse will come back to earth, in our preferred terms, at some point, and the Eagles’ rush defense is the exact type of obstacle to expedite that.
Iowa vs Wisconsin Under 36.5 (-110)
Of Iowa’s 196 points this season, 39.8 percent of them have come off turnovers, or 78 points. Without those luxuries, the Hawkeyes would average 16.9 points per game.
Wisconsin has turned over the ball 17 times through seven games this year.
Ripe for Iowa to run up the score, right? Wrong.
In the last month, Badgers quarterback Graham Mertz has thrown one interception. Yes, that is the same quarterback who once gifted a pair of pick-sixes to Notre Dame to allow the Irish to run up the score late in the fourth quarter of a misleading 41-13 rout.
In the first three weeks of the season, Mertz averaged 31.7 passing attempts per game. In the four games since then, he has thrown only 14.3 times per game. Wisconsin has stopped asking its quarterback to do more than he can, and the result has been a three-game winning streak. The Badgers will continue with this trend.
An offense having success avoiding the pass against a team that struggles to score unless it forces a bounty of turnovers is a nice setup for an Under, even with a total as terrifyingly low as 36.5. Most folks in Madison will probably have more drinks this weekend than there will be points scored Saturday afternoon.
Week 9 odds overview
Duke at Wake Forest (-16.5, 70): While Duke has scored 11.3 points per game in the last month, the Demon Deacons are fresh off an entertaining shootout against Army. If Wake Forest can avoid a triple-option hangover, it should be able to top this spread, but it will presumably need some unlikely Blue Devils help to threaten that total.
North Carolina at Notre Dame (-3.5, 62.5): The Tar Heels have lost the last four times they went on the road in primetime despite being favored on all four occasions. North Carolina failed to cover in those games, stretching across just the last two years, by an average of 19.4 points.
Miami at Pittsburgh (-9.5, 61.5): It could be argued both these teams are coming off such notable wins, they are each due for a letdown. The Panthers beat former ACC heavyweight Clemson while the Hurricanes rediscovered what it feels like to win by handing North Carolina State its first conference loss of the season. One of the two still has something to chase, while the other may simply be happy with that victory a week ago.
Odds current at time of publish. Check out our college football odds screen to see live odds and to shop for the best prices.
Week 9 Triple Option betting card
- Florida State +9.5 (-110)
- Boston College +6.5 (-110)
- Iowa at Wisconsin Under 36.5 (-110)
Last week: 1-2 ATS, -1.1 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
Season: 10-14-1 ATS, -4.88 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
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