NCAAF Week 2 Best Bets: Sooners Shine as SEC Action Nears

In a given week, I publish 15-20 bets within the regular college football coverage here at Covers.com. Three or four on Sunday to get things rolling, three or four in the Tuesday episode of “College Football 134” matched by another three or four on the Saturday morning live show of “College Football 134.” And then there are a handful of game previews.

But these ones, the ones in this column, are the ones most important to me. This is my favorite child; if there is a winning season for the column with “best bets” in the headline, it will be a good season.

Last week, we jumped out to a 3-1 start, winning 1.85 units. Let’s keep that momentum rolling into Week 2.

NCAAF Best Bets for Week 2

• Kansas -5.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
• Oklahoma -28 (-108 at DraftKings)
• Charlotte-UNC Under 48.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
• San Diego State ML (+185 at BetMGM)

Picks made on 9/5. Click on each pick to see full analysis.

Douglas Farmer’s best college football bets this week

Kansas -5.5 at Illinois

Best odds: -108 at DraftKings

Let’s check my notebook of offseason thoughts most applicable to September betting before the world has caught up to hunches that become trends. “Ill. — opp TT Overs.” We could not act on that a week ago, not with Illinois facing FCS-level Eastern Illinois, but now we get a ripe chance with one of the most enjoyable offenses in the country.

However, a team total is not the best bet. The best bet is Kansas to cover this 5.5-point spread. What gives? Mostly, the odd number of -5.5. If this spread favored the Jayhawks by a full touchdown, the thought would be to go find a team total Over (Over 31.5 at -106 at FanDuel). That would be strongly considered even with a spread of -6.

At -5.5, there is ample value in the spread to take the simple, more widely available route.

The Illini are replacing their entire defensive line. They return three starting linebackers among the front seven, but that first-level worry will be an issue against Kansas Jawhawks star quarterback Jalon Daniels. As long as he's healthy, any suspect defensive front seven on the Jayhawks’ schedule will be exploited. (Oct. 19 against Houston could be a statistical bonanza for the Heisman hopeful.)

Illinois’ defense is better than average, but terrible by Big Ten standards. Read that as a testament to the Big Ten’s deep quality, but also read it as a recognition that the Illini could be in for some rude awakenings (at Nebraska and at Penn State to close the month) if Kansas and Daniels indeed run through them this weekend.

The Jayhawks’ offensive line will have a clear advantage, and anytime that's the case with Daniels still healthy, Kansas as a one-possession favorite will make sense.

 Oklahoma -28 vs. Houston

Best odds: -108 at DraftKings

Let’s again turn to that notebook of offseason thoughts. “Houston — early TT Unders.” Again, a team total is not the best bet. And again, it's because of this exact spread, otherwise, we'd be looking at a Houston team total Under 10.5 at -140 at DraftKings.

As long as this spread is an even four touchdowns, there's value in it that protects against the Houston Cougars scoring all of 14 points. Furthermore, those offseason notes were thinking Houston would have a respectable defense. Anytime Willie Fritz is the head coach, that is assumed, especially with former Troy defensive coordinator Shiel Wood at his side.

And then the Cougars gave up 20 easy points to UNLV. That doesn’t seem like a lot, so let’s break them down. The Running Rebels had 10 genuine possessions. Half of them became quality drives, even if one of those ended on a turnover on downs inside the plus-20, and two others yielded field goal attempts, missing one. UNLV left points on the board against Houston, a surprise in the moment only in that the Cougars’ defense was so not up to the overall task.

The Oklahoma Sooners will not leave those points on the board, not while sophomore quarterback Jackson Arnold is trying to affirm he has all systems clicking with his receivers before SEC play begins in two weeks.

And the Sooners' defense need not be doubted. Brent Venables returns six starters and 11 of his Top-13 tacklers, led by linebacker Danny Stutsman. Oklahoma knows Houston wants to run the ball. Fritz prefers to run the ball even when he has no rushing attack.

That was the spark to that expectation of Houston team total Unders, and last week, even though the Cougars were trailing by multiple possessions for 42:49, they ran the ball 20 times for just 87 yards while dropping back to throw it 28 times.

Houston’s offense will be inept this season. That was expected. Its defense lacking fangs is a development, one that burgeons belief in Oklahoma up to four touchdowns.

Get more CFB picks from the College Football 134 podcast

Join Douglas, and co-host Andrew Caley, on the College Football 134 podcast, published every Tuesday and live on the Covers YouTube channel every Saturday at 9 a.m.
Check out the latest Tuesday episode below:

Charlotte at  North Carolina Under 48.5

Best odds: -115 at BetMGM

First of all, Charlotte 49ers head coach Biff Poggi was exaggerating last week when he said they were down eight or nine starters from preseason practices.

Once Charlotte lost to James Madison, astute observers gauged the 49ers down only three or four genuine starters. Coaches exaggerate. We call it coach-speak. It’s no big deal. We should pay more attention to finding out if Poggi uses a knife or scissors to kill every sleeve he's ever met.

Starters or not, losing those players hurt Charlotte’s depth. That fatigue showed up in getting outscored 21-0 in the fourth quarter. The 49ers were outgained 244 yards to 117 in the second half before a three-play drive to run out the clock, 8.4 yards per play to 3.4 yards per play. Yes, the Dukes were expected to win, but that second half was an exercise in ignominy.

The North Carolina Tar Heels are now looking forward to that Charlotte fatigue after former LSU and Texas A&M quarterback Max Johnson broke his leg last week in an excessively mundane game at Minnesota. Once Johnson went out, the Tar Heels brought in junior Conner Harrell and bound the offense to the ground.

The combination of the new-look UNC offense, one committed to star running back Omarion Hampton and little else, and Charlotte’s inevitable fatigue makes any total north of 45 seem rather dubious.

San Diego State moneyline vs. Oregon State

Best odds: +185 at BetMGM

The visiting team brings a new head coach and a devastated program, one trying to reset everything on the fly, including transitioning from a power-based offense to a spread offense. The home team is also resetting plenty, but in this instance, the head coach brings excitement and a proven offense that opponents dread.

That variance is enough to entice toward this moneyline. The spread has climbed much of the week, available at +4.5 on Sunday and now at +5.5 or +6 as of Thursday evening, but that is hardly a shift. Five is a rather meaningless number in football.

With that spread’s climb, the moneyline has climbed, as well. The largely-optical change in the line has created very real value in the moneyline.

That +4.5 was probably the correct number, based on advanced metrics, but those metrics are all terribly flawed in this instance, with Oregon State returning three total starters while San Diego State has just one defensive returner. And yes, logic could easily therefore argue for the Over 54 (-110 at Caesars), but this moneyline brings even more value.

And whenever considering an Over in a game with Sean Lewis on the sideline, the variance should veer to the coach who prefers to mainline up-tempo spread offenses. The Beavers are about to attempt to out-crazy a man who paints his face while hanging upside down looking at a broken mirror.

That may be a nonsensical analogy, but that's kind of the point. Do not go visit Sean Lewis and think you can out-offense him, not when you're transitioning your offense into a scheme he's more familiar with. Trent Bray would be better off walking into a naval bar near San Diego to challenge some seamen on shore leave to a whiskey shot contest. He’d lose, but at least he’d have a fun time doing it.

My Week 2 Best Bets column, in pictures.
(see Illinois, see Houston.)
(also, Trent Bray, drink Irish this weekend.) pic.twitter.com/4TcOrTeY0L

— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 5, 2024

Pages related to this topic