This column’s slide continued last week, undone by a defensive score along with three short-field touchdowns in Corvallis, costing an Under in the Purdue at Oregon State game and dooming hopes of a breakeven week. That would have at least been a step forward.
Instead, my college football picks went 1-3 and cost us another 2.15 units, lowering the season totals to 5-12 and -7.93. This valley will make the coming resurgence only more enjoyable.
And the resurgence will come. Don’t take my word for it. Follow these college football best bets for Week Five and see it become a reality.
NCAAF Best Bets for Week 5
Picks made on 9-26. Click on each pick to see full analysis.
Douglas Farmer’s best college football bets this week
UNLV moneyline vs Fresno State
The week started with UNLV as a mid-tier story in college football, the Rebels strongly in contention to secure the Group of Five entry into the 12-team College Football Playoff. As a four-point home favorite against Fresno State, UNLV was a favorite to set itself up for a Mountain West championship game entrance, at the absolute least.
Then UNLV became the lynchpin to both the Mountain West’s and the Pac-12’s survival, realignment nonsense again overshadowing actual football games. That frustration still lingered when Rebels quarterback Matthew Sluka turned the conversation upside down by announcing late Tuesday night he intends to sit out the rest of the season because of a dispute with the UNLV collective over NIL payments.
This line subsequently fell from favoring the Rebels by 4.5 to a valley of making them 1.5-point underdogs. As reactions calmed, UNLV settled as a 1.5-point favorite.
Was Sluka worth a field goal? This bet — taking the -120 moneyline rather than the -1.5 spread at -110 at BetMGM simply because 10 cents is worth that particular point — suggests perhaps Sluka was not worth a field goal compared to now-QB1 Hajj-Malik Williams. It is a two-pronged wonder.
First of all, UNLV is 3-0 with two wins against Power Four competition. It will have a chance at a third such scalp with a visit from Syracuse in a week. The Rebels should still be underdogs at Oregon State on Oct. 19 (probably about +4) and against Boise State a week later (+2.5, perhaps), but a path to a Mountain West title game appearance is largely cleared, at the least. UNLV has a chance at greater glory. If Sluka was worth a field goal over Williams, then the Rebels would have found the disputed $88,000. According to Sluka’s rather-dubious agent, the matter could have been settled for even less than that.
Secondly, Williams was QB1 in the spring, with Sluka getting to campus only in the summer. Williams is a better passer and more experienced than Sluka. He is far from immobile, a necessity in the Go-Go offense, with more than 1,600 career rushing yards and 24 career rushing touchdowns.
We have not seen UNLV uncork its passing game, but Williams completed 66.6% the last two years.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 25, 2024
Sluka: 59.3%
And let's not forget, Hajj-Malik Williams was UNLV QB1 in the spring. He and his receivers have some rapport.https://t.co/s92VYhebTN
Williams could make the UNLV offense two-dimensional, an offense that through three games has dropped back only 61 times. Its running abilities are already proven, somewhat service academy-esque. Bettering an explosive passing game will unlock receivers Ricky White III and Jacob De Jesus.
Logic says the Rebels had too much to lose to let Sluka walk unless they knew his value over replacement was minimal. The market overreacted, nonetheless, creating value for us.
Utah -10 vs Arizona
When recording Tuesday’s episode of “College Football 134,” this line sat at -11. Its move to -10 suggests the market has firmed up its belief that Utah veteran quarterback Cam Rising will not play.
There has not been a point this week where it seemed likely Rising would return from his finger injury. The Utes have an idle week coming up before heading to Arizona State. They should not need Rising back behind center until TCU’s visit on Oct. 19.
Assuredly, Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham will continue to play his mindgames about Rising’s availability. We all need to find joy in life, and that seems to be Whittingham’s.
But assume Rising is out.
A number of -11 or even -11.5 made sense without Rising. Finding it now at -10 is unexpected value.
The bet here is on the Utes’ defense. Arizona’s offense has become a one-trick pony. Noah Fifita throws the ball up to star receiver Tetairoa McMillan. That connection has gained 453 yards and scored four times through three games this season. It works and works well. But no other receiver has even 100 yards or two touchdowns.
Utah’s defense will scheme out that singular option, a veteran secondary able to accomodate such a one-dimensional offense.
This logic could send some toward the Wildcats’ team total Under, available at 17.5 (-115) at FanDuel. By all means, that makes sense, but given it is not widely available, making it a best bet would have been a bit counter to this column’s purpose.
Eastern Michigan -14 at Kent State
Facts supporting this bet:
- Eastern Michigan is 4-0 against the spread this season, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 9.4 points.
- Kent State is 0-4 ATS this season, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 15.3 points. A hat tip to friend of the site Brad Powers for both those notes early in the week.
ESPN.com’s SP+ ratings would make Eastern Michigan an 18.6-point favorite on a neutral field. The usual thought would be to shrink that by three points as a nod to Kent State’s homefield advantage, but the 25,000-seat Dix Stadium announced only 11,585 fans for the Golden Flashes’ home opener, a dismal 23-17 loss to a middling FCS team, St. Francis (PA) - Since then, Kent State’s morale has had to endure a 71-0 loss at Tennessee and then a 56-0 loss at Penn State.
- Back to St. Francis (PA) real quick, not that the transitive property should be applied even to mutual opponents, but it warrants noting that Eastern Michigan beat the Red Flash, 36-0, last week.
- This is the best of the number, after it opened at -15 on Sunday and spent much of the week at -14.5.
Conjecture doubting this bet:
- Those blowouts embellished just how bad Kent State is, the pair of top-10 teams enjoying such thorough talent advantages, the analytical impact of those blowouts unduly downgraded Kent State.
- Eastern Michigan and Chris Creighton are at their best as underdogs, falling short as big favorites.
Then again, the Eagles covered -25.5 last week, and they are 3-4 ATS against FBS competition as two-touchdown favorites in Creighton’s 11 years in Ypsilanti.
Maybe Kent State is not as bad as it seems, but until the Golden Flashes show an ounce of life, doubting them is the correct choice, especially when backing a team consistently and constantly exceeding outside expectations this season.
Alabama moneyline vs Georgia
The Tide have not been home underdogs since 2007, Nick Saban’s first year in Tuscaloosa. Since then, if you ever saw Alabama as an underdog, no matter the location, your instinct said there was value to be had.
Saban may not be on the sideline anymore, but Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey also are not in Georgia’s offensive huddle. The latter absences may be more impactful this weekend. The Bulldogs’ offense is sputtering in all facets, unable to find a consistent outlet for Carson Beck to develop a rhythm.
Is Georgia's offense trading on its past reputation? The 2024 numbers and eye test both think so. Going against a Kalen DeBoer offense, you don't want to be worrying about your own output.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 26, 2024
That worry got me onto the Alabama moneyline ... pic.twitter.com/UjZdGsx8O6
Perhaps most shockingly, Georgia finds success on only 37% of its rushing attempts, No. 103 in the country. In order for the Bulldogs to keep up with whatever Kalen DeBoer schemes up for Jalen Milroe, they will have to do it through the air.
But Alabama has the No. 1 pass defense in the country at the moment. Against this scuffling Georgia offense, that defense should prove too much. That edge should buy enough time for Milroe to hit a deep ball or two, the most likely way the Tide put up points against what is still a stout Bulldogs defense.
But if hopping on the Alabama moneyline is too bold a thought for your taste, @Covers_Caley is thinking of earlier value, a bit of a Georgia trend: pic.twitter.com/nXBKhniEf7
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 26, 2024
Get more CFB picks from the College Football 134 podcast
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