Pittsburgh vs West Virginia Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Will Panthers Fall Flat Once Again?

The Pittsburgh Panthers may not have an innate rivalry with Cincinnati, but the two programs are fewer than 300 miles apart and recruit plenty of the same territory. There should have been enough animus there for the Panthers to have been ready to play the Bearcats, and instead, they got run off the field in the first half last week.

Now, Pittsburgh faces its biggest rival for the second year in a row, a brief restart of the Backyard Brawl, which had been on hiatus since 2011.

The West Virginia Mountaineers should have revenge on their minds tonight, losing by a touchdown in last year’s Brawl. This return of the series will last through 2025, but West Virginia will not want to wait until its final season to get a win in Morgantown. Can the Mountaineers pull off a victory in primetime?

Here are our free college football picks for Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia on September 16.

Pittsburgh vs West Virginia best odds

Pittsburgh vs West Virginia picks and predictions

When the introduction here said the Pittsburgh Panthers were “run off the field in the first half” by Cincinnati, it meant it in a more literal sense than usual. The Panthers allowed four quality possessions on five first-half Bearcats possessions, reaching halftime trailing 20-7. Cincinnati rushed for 170 yards on just 20 carries in the first half, and while 68 of those yards came on one carry, the Bearcats still averaged 5.37 yards on the other 19 rush attempts before the break.

Pittsburgh was run off the field.

And West Virginia should be able to replicate that, running the ball more often than two-thirds of the country does, when factoring in game state, and thus putting together an efficient offense.

However, betting on the West Virginia Mountaineers feels too obvious, for two reasons.

First of all, this spread moved from Pittsburgh being favored by two points when it opened to favoring West Virginia by 2.5 or even 3 as of early Friday morning. On the surface, that feels like a big jump, more than five points, but in reality, that entire range is a dead zone.

This game effectively flipped from a slight edge for the Panthers to a slight edge for the Mountaineers as far as the gambling board is concerned. It never moved past that slight edge. This seemingly obvious West Virginia rushing offense advantage has not pushed it further.

Secondly, for all his cantankerous existence, Pat Narduzzi is still one of the more proven coaches in the country. His entire ethos is built around trench play. Assuming that will backfire on Pittsburgh for a second week in a row aggravates some guard rail in the gambling psyche.

That said, Narduzzi’s trench focus does carry a consistent cost. With the 2021 exception as Kenny Pickett took a run at the Heisman Trophy and the Panthers won the ACC, Narduzzi’s offenses have long struggled as they try to operate like it is the 1970s.

They have inarguably put a ceiling on his program, even as he's in his ninth season leading Pittsburgh. Skip over the 2021 season’s exception, and his offenses have finished the last three seasons with an average offensive ranking of No. 82.3 in the final SP+ rankings each year.

Currently, that offense sits at No. 42 in the SP+ considerations, and it may be a generous positioning. How sustainable can life be when your quarterback, a sixth-year veteran at his third school, completes 10 of 32 passes for 179 yards? That was not a typo, Phil Jurkovec completed 31.3% of his passes last week. There is no opponent in the country where that is justifiable, not even if Charlotte were playing Georgia.

This doubt in Pittsburgh’s offense conflicts with the discomfort of entirely betting against the Panthers, but that leaves a natural thought of value in specifically fading the offense.

A team total Under allows for a profitable bet even if Narduzzi successfully junks up the game to validate his old-school mentality, something West Virginia may indulge in as it will be happy to run plenty and shorten the game. Furthermore, this approach overlooks the confusion of that moving spread.

My best bet: Pittsburgh team total Under 22.5 (+100 at FanDuel)

Pittsburgh vs West Virginia same-game parlay

Pittsburgh TT Under 22.5 (+100)

CJ Donaldson Over 65.5 rushing yards (-114)

Garrett Greene anytime TD (+130)

+622 at FanDuel

West Virginia runs the ball 4.4% more than its game state would typically call for, per cfb-graphs.com. That may not sound like much, but it's an emphasis that stands out, particularly given its passing game finds success only 35.3% of the time. When the Mountaineers succeed, expect it to be on the ground.

So where is there value in the West Virginia ground attack? Look at the CJ Donaldson odds. The Mountaineers leaned on him at Penn State with the sophomore taking 18 carries for 81 yards. Frankly, this rushing yards total defies some comprehension. Sure, he ran for only 56 yards on 13 carries against FCS-level Duquesne last week, but the Mountaineers were logically preserving players in that rout.

The only defensible thought for Donaldson’s yardage number to be this low is West Virginia trotted out freshman Jahiem White against the Dukes. According to Mountaineers head coach Neal Brown, White was too banged up to play at Penn State, a somewhat surprise absence after a heaping of preseason praise.

If that was thoroughly true, then White’s showing last weekend could move him into a rotation with Donaldson this weekend. Even then, this number is too low.

Note: White is not listed in any props at any sportsbooks, but if he pops up as an anytime touchdown scorer option closer to kickoff, perhaps something in the range of +400 or +450, there is value in that.

Quarterback Garrett Greene complemented Donaldson in the rushing game at Penn State, taking 16 carries for 87 yards and a touchdown. Against a lesser defense, using Greene to put the Panthers in a bind near the goal line should be Offensive Coordinator 101.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Pittsburgh vs West Virginia spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread jumping the fence from favoring Pittsburgh by two at open to leaning toward West Virginia by a field goal on late Thursday is the least meaningful 5-point move available in a football handicap. It's still notable, just not as if this line moved from -13 to -18. Four key numbers would be involved then; only one — zero — was here.

As one-possession underdogs, the Panthers went 0-3 against the spread last year, thus obviously losing all three outright, as well. Since 2019, Pittsburgh is just 2-6 ATS in such moments.

This total has remained largely stagnant despite that spread movement, opening at 47.5 and still available at 47, 47.5, or 48, depending on your book.

The dichotomy of the spread moving so distinctly while the total did not suggests the opening spread was simply wrong, otherwise, an angle on one team or the other would have also influenced the total as a side effect.

Pittsburgh vs West Virginia betting trend to know

West Virginia has gone 3-0 ATS in its last three games as a one-possession favorite and is 6-2-1 in those moments since Neal Brown took over in Morgantown in 2019. Find more college football betting trends for Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia.

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