The expanded 12-team College Football Playoff has created some new value in college football predictions. Scoreboard optics matter more than ever and for more teams than ever. Teams like Tulane, Ohio State, and Notre Dame have an incentive to not only win but to win comfortably.
It is no longer simply about which coaches have a penchant for rewarding their boosters who insist on betting on the alma mater every week (looking at you, James Franklin). It is now about which teams need to keep impressing the selection committee each week so as to protect their possible postseason interests.
Three of those lead this week’s best college football picks.
College football predictions for Week 12
- Tulane -7 (-110)
- Ohio State -28.5 (-110)
- Notre Dame -22.5 (-110)
- Hawaii -2.5 (-110)
- Florida Atlantic moneyline (+125)
Picks made on 11-14. Click on each pick to see full analysis.
College football Week 12 predictions
Tulane -7 at Navy
Best odds: -110 at BetMGM
If Boise State loses just once — and as unlikely as that may seem, please remember the Broncos were in a surprisingly competitive game against Nevada last week — then an interesting conversation will erupt debating Boise State and the Tulane Green Wave. If the Broncos lose in the Mountain West championship game, they would not even be part of the Playoff debate.
Tulane has a viable path to the College Football Playoff, but it needs to plan as if it is going to be in that debate, as if Boise State is going to lose at San Jose State this weekend. The Green Wave needs to impress each and every week.
And this is an easy week for Tulane to impress. All due respect to the troops, but a dominant defensive line has already shown the Navy Midshipmen's current triple-option offense struggles against a stout front as much as always. Notre Dame devastated the Midshipmen attack, and the Green Wave should do so, as well.
Head coach Jon Sumrall always draws up a havoc-causing defense, and his first in Louisiana is no different. The Green Wave rank No. 14 in the country by causing 18 turnovers, in no small part because they have notched 64 tackles for loss this season, including 28 sacks, Nos. 22 and 13 in the country, respectively. Tulane will be a part of Navy’s pitch far too often for the Midshipmen to excel on Saturday.
With a moderately potent offense of its own, the Green Wave should run up this score, but it will stand out because of the defensive dominance.
Get more CFB picks from the College Football 134 podcast
Join Douglas, and co-host Andrew Caley, on the College Football 134 podcast, published every Tuesday and live on the Covers YouTube channel every Saturday at 9 a.m.
Check out the latest Tuesday episode below, which includes further thoughts backing Tulane this weekend:
Ohio State -28.5 at Northwestern
Best odds: -110 at DraftKings
Wait, why has this spread fallen this week? Is anyone worried about the Northwestern Wildcats putting up some fight? This spread was -30.5 on Sunday. Sure, those are two relatively meaningless numbers, but still, why?
Instinct says it is the weather. Well, first of all, this Northwestern home game is not being played directly on the shores of Lake Michigan. Part of why the Wildcats “built” Martin Stadium, the temporary stadium located within a stray punt of Lake Michigan, was because optimists suggested the Cubs could be playing into October. Yes, those were foolish thoughts.
Secondly, Saturday’s weather in Chicago looks fine. Winds might pick up to 10 or 15 miles per hour, but that is not high enough to worry a game. North of 15 mph is when to start taking notice.
But even if the weather picks up, this version of the Ohio State Buckeyes would not care as much as past ones.
The Buckeyes nowadays have as potent a rush attack as a passing one. They would rather throw the ball, but with both TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins behind a quality offensive line, they find plenty of rushing success.
Every part of Ohio State’s offense should excel against a middling Northwestern defense, while the Wildcats likely will not reach double digits. Taking a five-score favorite is an ambitious choice, yes, but Ohio State should score in the high 30s here by default.
Notre Dame -22.5 vs. Virginia
Best odds: -110 at BetMGM
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have covered the spread in their last five games by an average of 14 points. They have won their last six Senior Days all by lopsided scores, the closest being 24 points, all against overmatched ACC foes, three of which with now-head coach Marcus Freeman on staff.
In other words, there are both current and past trends expecting Notre Dame to win this game handily.
The Irish are in the mix to host a first-round Playoff game. That subsection of the committee’s weekly rankings is most in flux, with Georgia and/or Alabama very much poised to leapfrog past Notre Dame once again.
The Irish want that home Playoff game. Everyone does, of course. But there might be even more of an emphasis in South Bend, Freeman somewhere between wanting and needing to give the Irish faithful that sign of progress after so many faceplanted losses in his first three seasons as head coach.
The good news for Notre Dame is its rushing offense has become dominant, raising the Irish floor along with it. The Virginia Cavaliers rush defense is only decent, so the Irish should start their scoring on the ground. And as soon as they are ahead, they will suffocate any one-dimensional offense. That has become defensive coordinator Al Golden’s favorite Saturday activity.
Notre Dame's last six Senior Days have all been against overmatched ACC foes.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 14, 2024
Last three (with Marcus Freeman on staff): Average final score of 48-2.3.
Last six: Average final score of 45.2-8.
Closest margin: 24 points.
No, Virginia, there is not a Santa Claus in November. pic.twitter.com/PEhMfjrlAi
Hawaii -2.5 at Utah State
Best odds: -110 at FanDuel
The Utah State Aggies are 2-7 against the spread this year. Yes, that is bad enough on the surface, but then realize expectations were dirt-low on the Aggies before the season, in no small part because of the abrupt and contested firing of former head coach Blake Anderson in July. Immediately, the program was in turmoil.
And still, Utah State has regularly fallen short of expectations. It has been favored against FBS competition three times, losing all three games outright. In the five other FBS games, the Aggies were at least 19-point underdogs.
So, logically, this game better fits into the category where Utah State is 0-3 ATS this season. At the risk of being harsh, no team has more clearly quit this season than the Aggies.
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors still have an outside chance at a bowl game. In Timmy Chang’s third season after taking over a massive Todd Graham-sparked disaster, that would be a resounding accomplishment.
The Rainbow Warriors need to win their final two games to even be in consideration, but they will be also favored to end the year against New Mexico. Finishing the season 6-6 — but with two wins against FCS-level competition — is very much within reach.
Hawaii will have the two best units on the field at Utah State, and any Aggies’ homefield advantage has been dashed by their overall ambivalence at this point.
Florida Atlantic moneyline at Temple
Best odds: +125 at BetMGM
Look, neither of these teams is good. They are both 2-7 outright this year, and the Temple Owls have a better record against the spread, 4-5 compared to 3-6. Then again, remove the FAU Owls not running up the score too much on FCS-level Wagner, and its ATS record rises to 3-5.
In a meeting of two disasters, is there not value in taking the variance of the underdog?
What about when the underdog should have the two best units on the field, and it is only an underdog because of nominal homefield advantage? Are you really willing to turn down value out of deference to Temple’s homefield advantage?
There is nothing nice that can be said about either of these teams. This is a value play based on this not being a misery-loves-company pick’em, one justified by recognizing Temple’s defense gives up 4.5 points per opposing quality drive, No. 129 in the country.
If FAU can manage just three quality drives, it may end up with 21 points on little stress, and that may be enough to win this meeting of the ugliest pigs in the trough.
Not intended for use in MA.
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