College Football Predictions and Picks for Week 13: Dupree Gets It Done

No one likes to hear about someone else’s bad beats when it comes to college football predictions. Football is played with an oblong ball and by 18 to 23-year-olds; bad bounces and inexplicable chaos are built-in features, not bugs.

But losing because Ohio State gave up a score before it rattled off 31 unanswered points at Northwestern? That’s painful. Anytime an outright underdog like FAU falls in overtime, some measure of misery follows. And to lose an easy cover because Virginia scored a touchdown with 18 seconds left, only after its first touchdown was set up by a literal bouncing ball was ruled a completion? Betting Notre Dame -22.5 last week was unquestionably the right choice.

Nothing needs to change after that 1-4 week cost us 3.3 units, dropping the season total to 23.5-31.5 and -7.98 units. Those three foolish plays would have flipped the tally by 6.45 units. They were the right choices, and that process is the one we follow as we plunge into Week 13.

College football predictions for Week 13

• Colorado -2.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
• Dupree Over 28.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
• Cincinnati +8.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
• Jacksonville State -6 (-110 at BetMGM)
• Duke moneyline (+135 at bet365)

Picks made on 11-21. Click on each pick to see full analysis.

College football Week 13 predictions

Colorado -2.5 vs. Kansas

Best odds: -115 at DraftKings

Congratulations, Kansas Jayhawks, you can still reach a bowl game. You upset BYU last week to throw the Big 12 race into a bit of chaos. You did so thanks to the Cougars’ mistakes, not your own successes.

Anyone praising the Jayhawks for last week’s win needs to remember Kansas gained just 4.7 yards per play against a good-but-not-great defense. Jalon Daniels was far from the star we like to think he still could be, throwing for 169 yards and an interception on 12 of 19 passing while adding just 20 yards on nine rushes (sacks adjusted).

BYU lost that game more than Kansas won it.

A week earlier, the Jayhawks nearly gave away a 38-13 lead, needing a pick-six to secure the upset of Iowa State. The lead and subsequent win deserve credit, but the second-half tightening can be considered a red flag. Kansas upset Kansas State the week before that, but recent weeks have made it clear that may be more about what is going on in Manhattan than what is going in Lawrence.

There is too much hype around the Jayhawks right now. Far too much hype. And, somehow, not enough around the Colorado Buffaloes.

Colorado will have the two best players on the field on Saturday, as well as arguably the two best units. They have far more at stake, and Deion Sanders will certainly emphasize that to get his team rallied for this road game.

Some might tell you Kansas is playing better than anyone else in the Big 12 right now. They’d be wrong. Colorado is. So to get this number at less than a field goal is a wonderful gift.

Wisconsin RB Darrion Dupree Over 28.5 rushing yards

Best odds: -114 at FanDuel

The Wisconsin Badgers fired offensive coordinator Phil Longo this week, naming receivers coach Kenny Guiton as the interim playcaller. This is the second time in two years Guiton has found himself in this role, taking over as Arkansas’s interim offensive coordinator last year when Dan Enos was fired after eight games.

Do not be fooled by Guiton’s role as receivers coach. He played quarterback at Ohio State at a time when the Buckeyes were largely focused on the run. He espouses that ethos when calling plays.

Ponder some Arkansas splits from last season, looking at the five SEC games under Enos and the three under Guiton.

Those splits are too distinct to be chalked up to any quality of opponents. Guiton chose to run more often and more successfully than Enos ever did.

Wisconsin already runs more than it passes, just like Arkansas did last year. And just like the Razorbacks, the Badgers’ ground game is struggling though far less than that Arkansas mess.

Aside from a stronger rushing game than Arkansas ever dreamed of, those Wisconsin splits are eerily similar to the Dan Enos subset, aren’t they? Now let’s expect the Badgers to run even more often.

And even beyond those splits, expect Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell to better recognize right now that if you want to coach the Badgers, you need to feature a running back in the offense.

As the season has progressed, freshman Darrion Dupree has cut into junior Tawee Walker’s workload, clearing this prop in three of the last four games. With an uptick in the running attack, Dupree should get more than the 8.2 attempts he has averaged in the last five games, and that should easily propel him past this low number.

Cincinnati +8.5 at Kansas State

Best odds: -110 at BetMGM

On-field results made it clear that all was not right in the Little Apple. The Kansas State Wildcats have gone 0-3 against the spread in their last three games and 1-2 outright, barely able to escape rival Kansas.

Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman shot down retirement rumors this week, ones that began after he showed unexpected emotion following Saturday’s 24-14 loss to Arizona State. On Tuesday, Klieman vaguely referenced some family worries in the last few weeks.

No bet should be made because of some off-field concerns in the head coach’s personal life. That kind of speculation will lead to gross missteps.

But this bet was already on the docket because of last week’s Wildcats’ loss. They blew a relatively genuine Playoff shot by faceplanting against Arizona State, and that should yield a letdown this week.

Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bearcats are 5-5 and need one more win to earn a bowl game in head coach Scott Satterfield’s second season. Given those trendlines and stakes, the Bearcats are too viable to be seen as two-score underdogs.

They are not great, not by any means, but Cincinnati is more than decent this year. A stellar run defense should stymie Kansas State, which prefers to run the ball 5.6% more often than the average team would in a given game state, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com. That thought alone should keep this within one possession.

College Football 134 reacts to Week 12, debates the Playoff & previews Week 13 w/ some best bets.
Who do you leave out of the SEC?
I expect Mississippi, but would like it to be Georgia.@Covers_Caley says Tennessee.
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Jacksonville State -6 vs. Sam Houston State

Best odds: -110 at BetMGM

A win propels the Jacksonville State Gamecocks to the Conference USA title game with time to spare. A loss would make next week’s trip to Western Kentucky far too interesting for the Gamecocks.

This is not a do-or-die scenario for Jacksonville State, but it is a rather clear moment to go all-out.

As is always the case with any team coached by Rich Rodriguez, the Gameoccks like to run the ball, doing so 10.7% more often than the average team would in a given game state and the 26th-highest rate in the country. That approach excels in monotony, with Jacksonville State ranking No. 18 in the country in rushing success rate, staying ahead of the chains on 47.3% of rush attempts.

And that is the Sam Houston State Bearkats' greatest defensive weakness, ranking No. 88 in the country.

The Gamecocks will run the ball and then run it again. Every time they do that twice in a row, they should get a first down. And that kind of strength will be enough to assure they cover this touchdown spread and reach the C-USA championship, regardless of next week.

Duke moneyline vs. Virginia Tech

Best odds: +135 at bet365

Virginia Tech Hokies star quarterback Kyron Drones reportedly split his Wednesday practice between the training room and the field. Read into that.

He is far from healthy, and without him, the Hokies' offense stalls. They had found an excellent rhythm once embracing his legs a few games into the season, covering the spread in five of six games and going Over their team total in four of those five ATS wins. Drones put defenses on their heels when his coaching staff remembered his dynamism.

But since his foot injury, Virignia Tech has gone 0-2 outright and 0-2 ATS with Drones missing one game and needing to find the sideline in the other.

Maybe he plays this week, but he is not whole. And the Duke Blue Devils are not a good defense to face with one hand tied behind your back.

The Blue Devils are 6-3-1 ATS this season, going 4-0-1 ATS as underdogs and 3-2 outright in those moments. When Duke is a short underdog of one possession, it is a 3-0 outright winner in the college football picks this season.

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