Sam Houston State vs Liberty Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Through the Fire and Flames

When Hugh Freeze left Liberty for Auburn, it looked like the Flames might take a step back in their first season in an FBS conference, but it’s been the exact opposite with them sitting atop the C-USA with a 4-0 record. 

New head coach Jamey Chadwell has kept the good times rolling in Lynchburg, and they shouldn’t stop tonight against Sam Houston State. The Bearkats have struggled in their first season outside the FCS and are coming off a gut-wrenching OT loss to Jacksonville State that has the college football odds continuing to doubt them.

Find out where my best bet lies in our college football picks for Sam Houston State vs. Liberty on Thursday, October 5.

Sam Houston State vs Liberty best odds

Sam Houston State vs Liberty picks and predictions

It’s a new era of football in both Lynchburg, Virginia, and Huntsville, Texas with Liberty finally joining a conference and Sam Houston State moving up to the FBS.

The move has worked out far better for the Flames thus far with their undefeated record under Chadwell, who brought his spread triple option offense from the teal turf of Coastal Carolina up to Liberty.

After going 39-22 as the Chanticleers head coach, Chadwell hasn’t skipped a beat after getting a pay raise, and far more resources, to come to Liberty. This season, with quarterback Kaidon Salter leading the way, the Flames have been an offensive juggernaut.

Meanwhile, the Bearkats have struggled to adjust to the FBS with head coach KC Keeler’s squad being outscored by an average of 25 to 9.5 through four games; 9.5 points per game is the least in all of FBS. It doesn’t look like it’ll get any easier for Keeler’s cats as they hit the road to take on the explosive Liberty offense.

Under Chadwell, the Flames offense has been humming ranking 32nd in the country in EPA per play and 18th in EPA per pass. They currently sit 10th in the country in total yards per game, and first among Group of Five programs. 

Behind Salter’s dual-threat ability (919 passing yards, 268 rushing yards, 16 total touchdowns) and running backs Quinton Cooley and Billy Lucas, Liberty is second in the entire FBS in rushing yards per game at 271.3. 

They’ve outscored teams by an average margin of 21.5 points and are 13th in the country in points per game at 40. They shouldn’t have much trouble with a Bearkats defense that’s been giving up 184.5 rushing yards per game, 17th worst in the country. 

It’s not all about the offense for Liberty either, defensive coordinator Skylor Magee has the Flames a respectable 47th in EPA per play on defense and 22nd in EPA per pass.

The Flames pass defense is holding teams to 182.3 passing yards per game, 22nd best in the country, and Magee’s unit will be dealing with a Sam Houston State passing attack that has been a disaster all season. The Bearkats are averaging 154 passing yards per game, 12th worst in the country, with just two touchdown passes to five interceptions.

It doesn’t get much better with their run game either, they average only 65.5 rushing yards per game, third worst in the country, and two yards per carry. 

The Flames are already 2-0 in the C-USA after beating both New Mexico State and FIU, and the Bearkats are coming into town demoralized after blowing a 21-7 lead against the Gamecocks last week.

My best bet: Liberty -19.5 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Sam Houston State vs Liberty same-game parlay

Liberty -19.5

Liberty team total Over 34.5

Over 23.5 1H points

+210 at bet365

It’s been all about the Liberty offense through four games this season with the team scoring at least 33 points in all four wins and 55 and 38 points in their last two games. If they’re going to cover that 19.5-point spread, they’ll need to keep scoring.

Luckily, with Chadwell having full belief in Salter at quarterback, the offense has been one of the best in the country. 

“As a player, if you know your coach has confidence in you, regardless of how you’re playing, they believe in you, then that sort of frees you up to let your ability go and play," Chadwell said about Salter after his six-touchdown performance against Buffalo.

Salter has a chance to pad his stats even more this week against a Sam Houston State program that’s given up 38 and 35 points in their last two games.

To sweeten this SGP, take the first half Over at 23.5 points. Liberty has hit the first-half game total Over in nine of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI).

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Sam Houston State vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis

Most books opened heavily leaning towards the Flames continuing to blow away opponents and the Bearkats continuing to look like a wounded animal not quite ready for the FBS level.

Liberty opened at -17.5 pretty much everywhere with the line moving up slowly to between 18 and 19.5, depending on the book. 

This season, Liberty remains one of six teams to be undefeated against the spread as a perfect 4-0, they’ve even outscored the spread by 14. The Flames easily cleared the double-digit spread last week against FIU by beating the Panthers 38-6.

While Sam Houston State hasn’t won a game, they’re a solid 2-1-1 against the spread this season but haven’t covered in their last two outings. 

The game total is a little trickier in this one with Chadwell’s group scoring so much and Keeler’s bunch being the lowest scoring in the country. Most books opened with the total of 47.5, but it has come down to between 45.5 and 46.5.

Both teams are 2-2 this season when betting the Over and this is the lowest total of the season for Liberty thus far, but the second highest for Sam Houston State.

Sam Houston State vs Liberty betting trend to know

Sam Houston State has hit the Game Total Over in their last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 91% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Sam Houston State vs Liberty.

Sam Houston State vs Liberty game info

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