San Jose State vs USC Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Riley and Williams Pour It On Early

The wonders and delights of Week 0 put the defending Heisman Trophy winner on the Pac-12 Network. You know, the television channel that was so successful it held together its namesake conference. Oh, wait. 

Anyway … the USC Trojans host the San Jose State Spartans to start Caleb Williams’ Heisman defense, and they could not have picked a much better opponent for it. Admittedly, this game was scheduled long ago, but USC should be able to give Williams some college football odds momentum before any other Heisman contender has even taken the field.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for San Jose State vs. USC on August 26, with kickoff set for 8:00 ET.

San Jose State vs USC best odds

San Jose State vs USC picks and predictions

Betting first-quarter totals or spreads can often risk the coin flip going against the intended handicap and game flow. But every so often, that coin flip will not matter.

Two scenarios could unfold late Saturday night. Let’s start with the less exciting version where San Jose State wins the coin toss. Either the Spartans — a pass-heavy team last year returning quarterback Chevan Cordeiro (23 touchdowns against six interceptions, 7.6 yards per pass attempt with) — find success on that opening possession against USC’s unknown-but-doubted defense, or they will throw a few incompletions and quickly put the ball in Williams’s hands.

Now imagine USC wins the coin toss, at home, with genuine national championship hopes. Is Lincoln Riley going to play conservatively? If you think so, hear out a historical absurdity — Riley has enough of a track record with Heisman winners to provide some data.

Full disclosure: This handicap was not expected to be this strong.

Riley has coached six Heisman winners or finalists, including Caleb Williams last season, and two years working as the offensive coordinator for Baker Mayfield. Riley’s teams have gone 5-1 in those six openers, No. 3 Oklahoma losing to No. 15 Houston in 2016, 33-23. In those six games, Riley’s star-studded offenses with known, proven quarterbacks scored within the first four minutes of the game four times. In a fifth, Riley’s offense took a 28-0 lead out of the first quarter.

He does not enter the season slowly. He enters it aggressively. He does not hold back.

San Jose State had an atrocious defense against the pass last season, ranking No. 100 in expected points added per pass play against. Williams should have a field day, and Riley will design it so he has a field day right away.

So, in our first scenario, the Spartans open the game with success because USC has yet to fix its defense. San Jose State scores. Williams responds. Or San Jose State quickly hands Williams the ball, and he does those Heisman-winning things.

In our second scenario, USC opens the season in typical Riley fashion and then continues with such aplomb.

Yet, the first-quarter total is as low as two touchdowns. There is no need to overthink this.

My best bet: First Quarter Over 14 (-125 at DraftKings)

San Jose State vs USC same-game parlay

First half Over 34.5 points

USC first half -16.5

Caleb Williams alt passing yards 275+

+225 at FanDuel

First of all, some frustration: It seems the same-game parlay risk calculators will not allow a first-quarter total to be included. That should still be the best bet. The two-touchdown total is outrageously low. But there is value in the first-half total, as well.

In fact, the earlier trends are underscored when focusing on first-half results while Riley was a head coach, ignoring the two previously included instances of him as Mayfield’s offensive coordinator. In other words, either younger Baker Mayfield or Sooners head coach Bob Stoops was tempering Riley. In the four season openers with a Heisman odds contender, Riley’s teams averaged 32.25 points in the first half. On their own. In three games against horribly overmatched Group of Five opponents (so removing 2019 Houston, which was still led by D’Eriq King at that point before Dana Holgorson foolishly convinced him to preserve a year of eligibility four games into the season), Riley’s teams led at halftime by an average of 36-7.

If that feels like too small a sample size, then remember how bad San Jose State’s defense is and how often its offense will throw the ball, either creating its own scoring opportunities or slowing the clock to give Williams more time. It really will throw the ball; the Spartans dropped back to pass on 61.1% of their snaps last year (counting sacks as dropbacks).

For that matter, realize USC dropped back on at least 55.2% of snaps; raw stats fail to grasp how many times Williams turned pressure into a positive gain.

This first half should have plenty of plays, no matter the new first-down clock management rules, and those snaps will lead to points.

As for Williams staying in long enough to crack 300 yards, the subset of “opening a season with a clear Heisman contender” should not be large enough to draw conclusions. For any other coach in history, perhaps sans Nick Saban, it would not be large enough. But for Riley, this will be the seventh such occasion in the last nine seasons.

In those six games, his quarterbacks have thrown 15 touchdowns with no interceptions and have averaged 305 yards. The passing yards prop for Williams is listed at 311.5, just close enough to that number to be uncomfortable, but grab an alternate line of 275+ at about -300 and suddenly there is reason to trust his production and Riley’s history. It is certainly enough trust to include the -300 considering it boosts the single-game parlay’s payout by 30.8%.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

San Jose State vs USC spread and Over/Under analysis

Let’s finish this analysis of Riley’s trends when opening a year with one of the country’s best quarterbacks. Again excluding that 2019 Houston game — the total on that opener was 80; it pushed — and Riley has covered all three openers against hapless opponents by 6, 30.5, and 10.5 points compared to the spread. 

This spread of -30.5 is actually lower than two of those three, so by no means should it be too outlandish.

And all three games went Over their totals, by 0.5, 10, and 19 points. This total of 66.5 or 67 is, however, higher than two of those and tied with the third. Consider this the upper limit of this Riley-Heisman trend.

San Jose State vs USC betting trend to know

Including that season opener in 2022, the Trojans were 2-0 ATS when favored by more than 30 points. Both those games went Over their totals, too, by six and 19 points. Find more college football betting trends for San Jose State vs USC.

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