2024 SEC Predictions, Season Preview, and Odds: Tennessee to the Top?

It’s the granddaddy of them all when it comes to college football conferences. Yes, I’m talking about the SEC.

That said, the best conference in college football didn’t have a participant in the national championship for the first time since 2014-15. They’ll be hungry to get back to the title game, but the question is, who will it be?

Stalwarts Georgia and Alabama are still here, even if Nick Saban isn’t. Or will this be the year Mississippi and Lane Kiffin finally break through? LSU is still lurking despite losing a ton of talent to the NFL. And we can’t forget the new blood, as Texas and Oklahoma make their SEC debuts. 

Hop in as I break down the college football odds and try to navigate the new SEC landscape for the 2024 season.

SEC predictions for 2024

• Tennessee to win SEC (+1,600)
• Texas Under 10.5 wins (-178)
• Vanderbilt Over 2.5 wins (-200)
• Best Heisman bet: Nico Iamaleava (+1,500) 

Click on each pick to read full analysis.

SEC championship odds

Team
Georgia Bulldogs	+190	+170
Texas Longhorns	+320	+350

Odds as of 8-21.

Team
Mississippi Rebels	+650	+800
Alabama Crimson Tide	+750	+700
LSU Tigers	+1,000	+1,000
Texas A&M Aggies	+1,400	+1,400
Tennessee Volunteers	+1,500	+1,600
Missouri Tigers	+1,800	+2,500
Oklahoma Sooners	+3,000	+2,500

Odds as of 8-21.

A new age

Me in my best Pinky voice: Gee SEC, what do you want to do tonight? 

The SEC: The same thing we do every night, try to take over the world!

Yes, with the addition of the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners, the SEC’s plans for world domination are nearly complete and for now, the 16-team conference will have to settle for being the best conference in college football.

While a new era in the SEC begins, another comes to an end, as the G.O.A.T. Nick Saban decided to walk off into the sunset and into retirement. But don’t write off the Alabama Crimson Tide just yet as former Washington headman Kalen DeBoer comes in to take over arguably the top program in the nation.

And while replacing a legend will be nearly impossible this season, he at least has quarterback Jalen Milroe back, and the Crimson Tide will be a contender in the SEC championship odds once again. Speaking of contenders…

The favorites

In a shocking revelation, Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs are the favorites sitting at a little lower than +200 depending on the book. And why shouldn’t they be?

Georgia returns 14 starters this season, including quarterback Carson Beck, and the defense could return to its uber-elite standard with (gasp) only four players from that side of the ball going pro. 

Here’s your stupid Georgia stat of the day: the Dawgs have as many national championships as they do losses over the last three seasons. They’re the No. 1 team in the country heading into the season, and for good reason.

Here’s the part where we would usually say that Alabama is Georgia’s biggest threat to another SEC crown. But 2024 is quite different as that mantra will be handed to conference newcomer Texas.

Head coach Steve Sarkisian knows what it takes to win in the SEC following his years on Saban’s staff as the offensive coordinator and even though the Longhorns lost a bunch of talent in the offseason, they come into this season looking like one of the better teams in the country.

But these aren’t the only two teams that can win the SEC this season.

The rest of the field

This could be one of the most interesting seasons in the SEC in many years, as several teams could be the one that puts it all together. 

Is this finally the year that Lane Kiffin puts it all together with the Mississippi Rebels? He did another masterful job in the transfer portal while a stunning 20 starters are back, including quarterback Jaxson Dart. They lost Quinshon Judkins to Ohio State but Ulysses Bently is ready to take over and averaged nearly six yards per carry last season.

The LSU Tigers have won 10 games in Brian Kelly’s first two years and while they lose Heisman trophy winner Jayden Daniels and their NFL receivers, this team reloaded on talent as the Garrett Nussmeier era gets underway at Death Valley.

I haven’t even mentioned the Texas A&M Aggies with Mike Elko now leading the way. Or the Tennessee Volunteers, who could be really scary if Nico Iamaleava lives up to the hype. Oh, and the Missouri Tigers won 11 games last season while Oklahoma is here too. Crazy times in the SEC are ahead.

Pick to win the SEC: Tennessee

Odds: +1,600 at FanDuel

I think Georgia is the best team in this conference, and maybe the country. The Dawgs will probably win the SEC, but I love the value we are getting with Tennessee to win the conference this season.

Let’s start with the obvious. If Nico Iamaleava is "him," the Volunteers offense could rival the heights of the 2022 team that went 11-2. Iamaleava has a lot of hype surrounding him, which could be tough to live up to, but luckily Josh Heupel has surrounded him with a lot of support.

Tennessee is going to be very strong in the trenches this season (something I look for when considering title contenders). The offensive line is loaded with seniors and has a chance to be very good. The defensive line is led by potential No. 1 overall draft pick James Pearce, and it could be the best in the conference.

Then there is the schedule. Yes, the Vols have trips to Oklahoma and Georgia and host Alabama, but other than that they will play Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt. Basically, the entire bottom tier of SEC teams this season.

So, if Nico is who we think Nico can be, with this schedule and the accompanying talent, I believe there is a very clear path to 10 or 11 wins for Tennessee this season and a date with the Dawgs in Atlanta at the end of the year is very much on the table. At the price, I’m willing to back the Vols to shock everyone this season.

SEC best bets for 2024

Texas Under 10.5 wins

Odds: -178 at FanDuel

Let’s get this out of the way. The Texas Longhorns are a really good football team and if there is a team that is capable of handling the transition to the SEC, it’s them. Heck, they went into Tuscaloosa last season and handed Alabama an L.

They have arguably the best quarterback room in the country with Quinn Ewers returning and Arch Manning backing him up. The offensive line is elite, and they are the only playoff team from a year ago who has their head coach coming back.

But the thing is, there are a lot of really good football teams in the SEC this season and the handful of escapes Texas pulled off last season will be much tougher this season. Plus, the schedule makers didn’t go easy on the Longhorns in their inaugural SEC season. 

The Longhorns open conference play at Mississippi State, a winnable game, but then it’s the Red River Showdown with Oklahoma (who seems to be getting overlooked this season) and then a date with No. 1 ranked Georgia, while matchups with Florida and Kentucky won’t be cakewalks.

Then it’s a big one as Texas renews its rivalry with Texas A&M at the hostile Kyle Field to close out the regular season. To say the Aggies will be up for that one is an understatement. Oh, and did I mention the non-conference matchup against Michigan, at the Big House?

Ewers will be down some playmakers this season as well. Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, and Ja’Tavion Sanders are all in the NFL. But the biggest hole to fill for me is on the defensive line.

I think people are underrating the losses of Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat. The Longhorns’ ability to rush the passer and collapse the pocket was second to none last season and was a huge reason for their success. Those two were gamebreakers and not having them in a more talented SEC will hurt.

For me, 10.5 is a big number and a 10-2 season probably still gets Texas in the College Football Playoff, and 10-2 or even 9-3 looks more likely than 11-1 for the Longhorns.

Vanderbilt Over 2.5 wins

Odds: -200 at FanDuel

We go from one end of the SEC spectrum to the other as we look at the Vanderbilt Commodores. Let’s go Vandy!

The Commodores enter 2024 with one of the lowest win totals in the country, sitting at just 2.5 and I love the Over. Yes, the Over is juiced to -200, but the juice is worth the squeeze.

Let’s start with stability. This is now Clark Lea’s fourth year with the program, and he has proven that he can get the most out of his players, which includes 15 returning starters.

One new player is quarterback Diego Pavia. The senior is a transfer from New Mexico State and immediately makes Vandy a better football team. Pavia is a 5-foot-9 dual-threat tank of a QB.

Pavia threw for 2,973 yards with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions while adding another 923 yards and seven scores on the ground with the Aggies last season and was a big reason why New Mexico State was a blistering 11-2 ATS and made the C-USA title game last season.

Pavia’s offensive coordinator, Tim Beck, also followed him to Nashville, so you can expect a similar offense at Vandy.

Then there is the non-conference schedule. Matchups with Alcorn State, Georgia State, and Ball State have me feeling this number should be at 3.5. In fact, some even 3s are starting to pop up.

While the SEC schedule is as tough as they come and while Vanderbilt went 0-8 in conference play last season, that won’t bother Pavia, who went into Auburn last season and beat the Tigers as 25-point road underdogs. And guess who is on the Commodores' schedule this season?

Plus, I like Vandy to be at least competitive in matchups against Kentucky and South Carolina this season, meaning I’m more than willing to pay the price on the Over 2.5 with Vandy this season.

Best SEC bet to win the Heisman: Nico Iamaleava

Odds: +1,500 at DraftKings

The SEC is stacked with Heisman hopefuls. In fact, seven of the top nine players on the Heisman odds board hail from the Southeastern Conference. 

Georgia’s Carson Beck has the best odds at +750, and he’s followed closely by Texas’ Quinn Ewers (+1,000). Then it’s Jalen Milroe, Nico Iamaleava, Jaxson Dart, Garrett Nussmeier, and Connor Weigman all sitting in the +1,400 to +2,000 range.

Now, if someone from the SEC wins the award for college football’s most outstanding player, it will likely be one of these seven guys. Reminder, a quarterback has not won this award just twice since 2010 and we’ve just had one non-QB finalist over the last three seasons.

So, which one do we pick? Essentially all of them have some sort of question mark. Georgia still runs the ball too much. Ewers has lost a lot of talented playmakers. What will the new Alabama offense look like? 

So, my favorite of this bunch is Iamaleava. Yup, I’m pretty much all in on Nico this season. We got a taste of his potential in the Citrus Bowl last season, going 12-for-19 for 150 yards and a touchdown while adding 27 yards and three more scores on the ground. Iamaleavea brings that dual-threat ability and creativity that Heisman voters seem to crave in recent years. 

Seeing what Josh Heupel can unlock with Nico is tantalizing, considering what he was able to produce with Hendon Hooker and Joe Milton. Hooker, in particular, threw for 3,135 yards, 27 touchdowns and two picks while rushing for 430 yards and five scores before getting hurt in that magical 2022 season. I think Iamaleava can surpass that.

SEC stat to know

The College Football Playoff has been in existence for 10 seasons now. Crazy, I know. And the SEC has played a major role. The SEC has made up 30% of all teams selected in the CFP and have had at least one team in the College Football National Championship game seven times. 

So, the expansion to 12 teams helps this super league even further. Last season Alabama made the cut but Georgia, Missouri, and Mississippi were in the Top 12 of the final rankings, not to mention new SEC members Texas and Oklahoma were both there as well.

A minimum of three SEC teams in the playoff feels like a given, and with the conference doing away with divisions we should have a clearer vision about how the league will stack out. 

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