One of the most intriguing games on the Week 3 schedule takes place at Camp Randall Stadium where Luke Fickell’s Wisconsin Badgers play host to Kalen DeBoer and the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Both teams enter this game at 2-0 but have been far from perfect. Either way, this afternoon's Alabama vs. Wisconsin predictions expect the Tide's defense to be the best unit on the field. Find out why in our college football picks below.
Alabama vs Wisconsin prediction
My best bet
First half Under 26.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
If you just looked at the boxscore from the Alabama Crimson Tide’s game against USF last week, you'd think they rolled, but let me tell you, that 42-16 final score is deceiving. They spent much of the game struggling to move the ball and the Bulls were still within five points halfway through the fourth quarter. The Tide benefited from explosive plays down the stretch and things quickly snowballed for USF.
Still, I’d much rather be Bama in this spot than the Wisconsin. Yes, the Badgers are also 2-0 heading into this matchup but they've looked really bad in the process. The Wisconsin Badgers trailed Western Michigan 14-13 in the fourth quarter before coming back for a 28-14 win as a 24-point favorite.
Then the Badgers were supposed to “get right” when FCS South Dakota came to town, but they also struggled to put away South Dakota. That was a one-possession game heading into the fourth before winning 27-13 as 18-point home chalk.
The biggest problem has been the offense. We're used to Badgers teams that are physically dominant on the offensive line, but that hasn’t been the case this season. They've had to battle with inferior opponents, particularly in the trenches. That means there hasn’t been much room to work in the running game, which is averaging just 4.2 yards per carry.
It's also holding back the passing game. Former Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke is under center this season and he’s averaging just 6 yards per attempt with one touchdown strike this season.
While there are things to worry about for Alabama, that’s in the context of the Crimson Tide being able to compete for a national title. And one thing that hasn’t been a problem for Bama has been its defensive front seven. That group has created constant pressure and as a result, the team ranks first in defensive success rate and sixth in opponent yards per play.
Meanwhile, the offense looks like it's still trying to figure things out, and while this isn’t the best Wisconsin defense we’ve ever seen, this game could be slow to get going if it can limit big plays.
Alabama vs Wisconsin same-game parlay (SGP)
Wisconsin team total Under 16.5
Jam Miller 70+ rushing yards
Jam Miller anytime touchdown
BetMGM's SGP allows me to add team totals and I'd highly suggest Wisconsin's Under in this game.
I wrote about Wisconsin not being as physical as we’ve been used to and that's also true of the defense. The Badgers enter this game allowing 4.2 yards per carry, which ranks 81st in the country, and have already surrendered three rushing TDs through two games.
That means I’m looking at props for Bama running back Jam Miller who has this Alabama ground attack rolling. The junior has already rumbled for 194 yards and two scores on just 20 carries over his first two games. He's strong but can still bust out big runs and should be the type of back that can give Wisconsin problems.
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Alabama vs Wisconsin odds
Alabama vs Wisconsin live odds
Alabama vs Wisconsin opening odds
- Spread: Alabama -15.5 | Wisconsin +15.5
- Moneyline: Alabama -750 | Wisconsin +500
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 | Under 51.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Alabama vs Wisconsin spread and Over/Under analysis
- Alabama opened this matchup as 15.5 point road favorites and while the action has been light so far, it's the Crimson Tide who have seen the early money with the line now in the 16.5 range.
- Alabama easily covered the spread in Week 1 against Western Kentucky but failed to cover as big chalk against USF last week. Wisconsin is 0-2 ATS this season, failing to cover both as favorites of 18+ points.
- It's the total that's seen the early action. It hit the board at 51.5 and bettors have jumped on the Under, moving the number down to 49.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
- Even though we missed the early number, I still believe there's value on the Under as it looks like Wisconsin could have real problems moving the football.
Alabama vs Wisconsin betting trend to know
Wisconsin has stayed Under the total in seven of their last eight home games for +5.95 units and a 68% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Alabama vs Wisconsin.
Alabama vs Wisconsin game info
| Location: | Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-14, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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