South Alabama vs Troy Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Webb Finds the End Zone Against Trojans

The “Funbelt” should live up to its nickname on Thursday night when South Alabama hits the road to take on Troy, as two high-powered passing attacks throw down in a key divisional matchup on the college football odds board.

South Alabama’s offense ranks in the Top 25 in scoring and yards per game, but the Jaguars sit at 4-4 on the season due to turnovers and bad run defense. They’ll hope to move back over .500 with a win.

That might be easier said than done. The Trojans have a terrific defense, getting after the quarterback and holding their last four opponents to 13 or fewer points. They’ve also put up plenty of yards this season and will look to Kimani Vidal to continue his strong season on the ground.

My college football picks and predictions for South Alabama vs Troy has a player prop priced where it probably shouldn’t be, and I'm here to help you capitalize on a line that is in your favor. 

South Alabama vs Troy best odds

South Alabama vs Troy picks and predictions

Sometimes you have to dig for a while to find the best bet for a game, but once in a while you simply find a line that isn’t right and you’re able to pounce on it. And the latter is exactly what we have for Thursday’s game between South Alabama and Troy.

All eyes for the South Alabama offense this week are on quarterback Carter Bradley, and with good reason. He’s completing 66% of his throws and has already gained over 2,100 yards on the season. While expected to go, he's dealing with an ongoing knee concern. That means other Jaguars need to pick up the slack a bit, especially against a Troy pass rush that averages over four sacks per game.

That’s where running back La’Damian Webb comes into focus. His workload increased after the first two games of the season when he rushed for 151 yards and a pair of scores on 18 carries as they upset Oklahoma State in Week 3.

It was Webb’s second multi-touchdown game of the season, and he now has four of them after finding the endzone four times against Southern Miss a few weeks ago. He’s scored a rushing touchdown in every game this season outside of the season opener.

Webb has also had his best stretch of the season in October. He gained at least 96 yards rushing in all three games, with 298 yards on 55 carries. He’s also become more involved out of the backfield of late, catching 15 passes over his last four games. Webb is also a key reason why South Alabama ranks Top 10 in the nation in explosive run rate, with a run of 16 or more yards in six of his last seven games.

Troy’s defense is strong against the run, holding opponents to just 3.2 yards per carry. But we don’t need Webb to have a big day, we just need him to find the pay dirt. And the Jaguars convert when they get to the red zone, ranking 17th in red zone scoring this season. 

Webb’s going to test Troy, and there's good value for him to score. What’s even better value is bet365 giving you +100 odds for him to do so. That’s much higher than the -120 or more offered by other sportsbooks.

The price at bet365 is an implied probability of 50%, vs. 55% or more at places like DraftKings. I can’t pass up that value, which is why it’s my best bet for Thursday night. 

My best bet: La’Damian Webb anytime touchdown scorer (+100 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

South Alabama vs Troy same-game parlay

Webb anytime TD

Over 44.5

Troy ML

+325 at bet365

I’m anticipating a big game from the Troy offense. I’ll dive into the spread analysis more in a moment, but I'm playing it safe here and simply taking the Trojans to get the win. 

In doing so, I'm also going to go with Over 44.5 points. South Alabama tends to be involved in some high-scoring affairs, and I see this game being a similar style to Troy’s win over Western Kentucky in which 51 points were scored. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

South Alabama vs Troy spread and Over/Under analysis

Troy is laying 5.5 points on Thursday night, a line that quickly shifted from -2.5 last week and got as high as -6.5 over the weekend. Part of that was driven by the concerns around Bradley’s health, but all signs point to him going after he practiced on Monday.

The difference for me here is Vidal. He will go past 1,000 rushing yards on one of his first carries, and he’s averaging almost six yards per carry. At home, that number is almost 7.5 yards per. 

South Alabama’s run defense is holding opponents to just 3.5 ypc, but it’s been giving up yards on the ground of late. Louisiana ran for 203 yards on 49 carries in its win over South Alabama, and I expect Vidal to replicate that. Troy covers the spread, but not by much.

The total has remained fairly level since opening, with slight variance between 44.5 and 46.0 between books. Sitting at 45.5, both sides are offering a price of -110. Both of these offenses can put up yards, with each averaging more than 440 yards of total offense per contest. More importantly, the defenses have shown holes at times. 

Troy’s defense is stout against the run and its pass rush can cause some issues, but I’m not sure it’ll be enough to keep South Alabama from putting up at least 20 points. If that happens, the Over should come through. 

South Alabama vs Troy betting trend to know

The Over is 9-4 in South Alabama’s last 13 games. Find more college football betting trends for South Alabama vs Troy.

South Alabama vs Troy game info

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