South Carolina vs Arkansas Odds, Picks and Predictions: Hogs Run Wild on Gamecocks

The South Carolina Gamecocks and Arkansas Razorbacks open up their conference schedule when the pair meet in Fayetteville.

Both teams are coming in off a victory last weekend. It was an impressive six-point victory for Arkansas over a Top-25 team in Cincinnati. South Carolina comes into this season with a fair amount of hype in Head Coach Shane Beamer's second season. They got an underwhelming win against Georgia State last weekend, 35-14.

Who will grab this conference tilt? Find out in our college football picks and predictions for South Carolina vs. Arkansas on Saturday, September 10.

South Carolina vs Arkansas best odds

South Carolina vs Arkansas picks and predictions

The Gamecocks have a problem. It has been as consistent as anything through the better part of the last decade. Simply put: they struggle against the run. 

Over the past three seasons, South Carolina has ranked 11th, 13th, and 14th in the SEC in rushing yards allowed per game. Last week, it allowed 200 yards on the ground to Georgia State, at 5 yards per rush attempt. That average is on par with what they've done the previous two seasons, and it came against non-Power Five competition. That's not exactly a good sign. We're going to expose that by taking KJ Jefferson anytime touchdown.

There are many routes you can go here — they aren't limited to just Jefferson touchdown. You can take his — or any player who will run the ball for Hogs’ — rushing yards Over. All will be decent plays because South Carolina is that bad against the run. For various reasons, we settled on this one being the Best Bet.

For starters, the raw data is in our favor. A season ago, South Carolina gave up touchdowns to two of the three quarterbacks with over 10 carries, which Jefferson will eclipse on Saturday. He ended last season with 10 or more carries in four last five games, and opened this season against Cincinnati with 18 carries. He also scored a touchdown, in case you're curious. 

One of my favorite parts of this bet is the Arkansas red zone offense vs. the South Carolina red zone defense. Run-pass options are a favorite of the Razorbacks in these spots; additionally, it's where they score most of their touchdowns. 

A season ago, South Carolina was crushed in the red zone. They were one of 23 teams to allow a 100% scoring percentage in their last three games. So, this feels very much like a strength on a weakness. Jefferson is a favorite weapon for Arkansas in these short-field positions, and South Carolina struggles to keep opponents out of the zone in them.

Jefferson will be a big story in this game. However, his leg effectiveness will be the most significant part of that story. It's what South Carolina has struggled with for a while now, and he'll expose that by reaching the end zone. 

My best bet: KJ Jefferson Anytime Touchdown (-130 at DraftKings)

South Carolina vs Arkansas betting preview

Jump to:
•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know

Spread analysis

I lean to the Arkansas cover, and it's difficult not to. This is a different way to talk about what I mentioned above, but it’s hard to back a team with such a lousy rushing defense.

Beyond that, this Arkansas team seems primed for big things in 2022. It returns all of the most important figures from a team with one of the best ATS records in College Football. Cincinnati isn't as good as it was a season ago, but Arkansas still got a win last weekend against a team coming out of the College Football Playoff. While they didn't cover, they were in control throughout, and you never felt like the game was in much doubt. So, they are brimming with confidence coming into this matchup.

I don't believe in Oklahoma transfer Spencer Rattler. I didn't believe in him while wearing an Oklahoma jersey, so it's hard to believe in him with less talent. He was pretty underwhelming last week against Georgia State when he threw two interceptions and passed for less than 250 yards. Arkansas's weak spot is its secondary. It ranked second to last a season ago and is likely to come into this matchup injured. But I don't believe Rattler can attack that weakness; he's not shown enough consistency throughout his career. I'll have to see it before I believe it.

I'm getting a solid lean to Arkansas on the pregame number of 8.5. If Rattler can make some plays early, you may get better value on the Razorbacks live. That’s the point I'll be looking to strike. Each of these defenses has two apparent weaknesses. Arkansas is much more prepared to attack that weakness. South Carolina has been 2-11 in road games over the past three seasons. While they come into this season with a lot of hype, I'm not sure I've bought in quite yet. 

Over/Under analysis

I want no part of this total from a pregame perspective. However, if you're a believer in trends, there are some in your favor. 

• The Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings between these two teams.
  
  
• The Over is 4-0 in the last four road games for South Carolina. 
  
  
• The Over is 3-1-1 in Arkansas's last five September games.

While so much in this matchup points to the Over, I'm not ready to back it pregame. So much of this total comes down to game flow. If Rattler can show that he can make some plays against a suspect secondary, then it's an excellent time to jump into the Over live. However, if he can't, then Arkansas will just gut South Carolina on the ground. The key to this handicap is figuring out which one of them is happening early on. You may find the right side here if you can identify that. 

That's the gist of this analysis. I want to see how things play out before laying any side. Once I do, I'll be jumping in on the live Over or Under, depending on how that shakes out.     

South Carolina vs Arkansas game info

• Location: Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
• Date: Saturday, September 10, 2022
• Kick-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

South Carolina vs Arkansas key injuries

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South Carolina vs Arkansas weather

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South Carolina vs Arkansas betting trend to know

The Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings between these two teams. Find more NCAA betting trends for South Carolina vs. Arkansas.

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