Sugar Bowl: Ohio State vs Clemson Picks

It wouldn’t be 2020 without a little controversy in the College Football Playoff as Ohio State made it in, despite playing in just six games this season. But the Buckeyes will get a chance to prove they are for real – and a shot at revenge – as they try to pull off the upset as 7.5-point college football betting underdogs when they take on Trevor Lawrence and the Clemson Tigers in the Sugar Bowl.

Here’s a look at our best college football free picks and predictions for the College Football Playoff semifinals between No. 3 Ohio State and No. 2 Clemson. Kickoff is scheduled for Friday, January 1 at 8:00 ET.

Sugar Bowl: Ohio State Buckeyes vs Clemson Tigers Betting Preview

Weather

The Sugar Bowl will be played indoors at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions for other bowl games with our NCAA football weather info.

Key Injuries

Ohio State: Chris Olave WR (Questionable), Marcus Hooker S (Questionable), Tyler Friday DE (Questionable), Baron Browning LB (Questionable).
Clemson: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting Trend to Know

Clemson is 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games as a favorite. Find more NCAA betting trends for Ohio State vs. Clemson.

Against the Spread (ATS) Pick

This is the second straight season Clemson will meet Ohio State in the College Football semifinals, as the Tigers took down the Buckeyes 29-23 as 2.5-point favorites in last year's Fiesta Bowl, but there are some who question if Ohio State should even be here, including Dabo Swinney. Clemson’s head coach had the Buckeyes ranked 11th in his latest coach’s poll.

And there is an argument to be made there. Ohio State played just five games in the regular season, meaning the Big Ten had to change the rules just to let the Buckeyes play in the conference championship game against Northwestern, in which they trailed 10-6 at halftime. They eventually pulled out a 22-10 victory, thanks to a massive game from running back Trey Sermon, but finished the season with the 67th-toughest schedule.

That said, Ohio State does have a high-flying offense. Led by quarterback Justin Fields, the Buckeyes’ have the country’s sixth-ranked offense at 529.2 yards per game and they're eighth with 42.5 points per contest. Fields has thrown for 1,521 yards and 15 touchdowns, while RBs Sermon and Master Teague III have combined for 1,124 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. But Fields has struggled with his decision-making recently, throwing five picks in the last three games, and now he’ll have to go up against another strong Brent Venables-led defense.

Oh, they’ll also have to deal with the best player in college football and presumptive No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft, Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence is a Heisman finalist, despite playing just nine games, and he showed why he is such a difference-maker in Clemson’s thumping of Notre Dame in the ACC Championship game, throwing for 322 yards and two scores while adding another 90 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Now, he gets to face an Ohio State defense that ranks 103rd in the country in passing yards allowed.

We're not saying we agree with Dabo's ranking of Ohio State, but we sure aren't fading Lawrence and Clemson in this spot.

PREDICTION: Clemson -7.5 (-110)

Over/Under Pick

The total for the Sugar Bowl hit the board at around 65.5, climbing up to 67 at most shops, and it feels like that number might be a tad high. Yes, this is a matchup of high-octane offenses that combine for more than 85 points per game, but when two strong teams face-off like this, those numbers tend to come down quite a bit. For example, last year’s Fiesta Bowl matchup had a total of 62 and that one went Under by 10 points.

Additionally, while this Ohio State offense put up some strong numbers, the sample size is not as great as some of the other top programs in the country and it has been turning the ball over too much against tougher defenses. On top of that, the Buckeyes have made a real commitment to running the football this season, which should help drain the clock.

We also mentioned a strong Clemson defense. Well, the Tigers rank sixth in total yards allowed, and ninth against the run, giving up fewer than 100 yards per contest. They are also giving up just 17.5 points per game, are playing their best football of the season right now, and are capable of frustrating Fields in this matchup. This one should sneak below the number.

PREDICTION: Under 67 (-110)

First Score Prop Pick

Since we’re betting the Under in this CFP semifinal, we’re going to need a few field goals to make that happen. Clemson allowed Notre Dame to open the scoring in the ACC Championship with a field goal, while Ohio State put the first points on the board in the Big Ten Championship with a kick between the uprights. A field goal was also the first score when these two met in the Fiesta Bowl last year.

Plus, the value is hard to say no to. Bet on the defenses to bend but not break on one of the first drives.

PREDICTION: First Score Method - Field Goal (+350)

Sugar Bowl: Ohio State vs Clemson Betting Card

• Clemson -7.5 (-110)
• Under 67 (-110)
• First Score Method - Field Goal (+350)

Where Can I Bet on College Football Bowl Games?

You can bet on college football bowl game odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NCAA football point spreads, Over/Under totals, derivative bets and even prop plays as well. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on college football odds in your area.

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