The Mountain West may argue, but the Sun Belt college football preview suggests arguably the most competitive of the Group of Five in 2024. Certainly, at its top, the Sun Belt should be the most exciting Group of Five football available.
The only bad news is Appalachian State, Troy, Louisiana and James Madison do not all play each other, but that should eventually lead to a high-octane conference championship game with possible College Football Playoff implications come the first weekend of December.
Let's check in on the preseason college football odds for the Sun Belt.
Sun Belt predictions for 2024
- Appalachian State to win the Sun Belt (+275)
- Southern Miss Under 4.5 wins (-170)
- Georgia State Under 4.5 wins (-164)
Click on each pick to read full analysis.
Odds to win the Sun Belt
| Team |  |
|---|---|
 Appalachian State Mountaineers |
+270 |
 Texas State Bobcats |
+380 |
 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns |
+550 |
 James Madison Dukes |
+750 |
Odds as of 7-30.
| Team | |
|---|---|
 South Alabama Jaguars |
+1,000 |
 Troy Trojans |
+1,600 |
 Arkansas St. Red Wolves |
+1,600 |
 Marshall Thundering Herd |
+1,600 |
 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers |
+2,000 |
 Georgia Southern Eagles |
+2,500 |
Odds as of 7-30.
| Team | |
|---|---|
 Old Dominion Monarchs |
+3,000 |
 Southern Miss Golden Eagles |
+4,800 |
 Georgia State Panthers |
+4,800 |
 UL Monroe Warhawks |
+35,000 |
Odds as of 7-30.
Sun Belt season preview
Consistency and competitiveness
The Sun Belt has navigated the recent realignment dramas across college football with less turmoil than any conference aside from the MAC. If anything, the Sun Belt is stronger nowadays, thanks to the immediate success from James Madison upon transitioning to the FBS level.
There are still plenty of have-nots in the Sun Belt. In fact, the worst of the conference may be the worst team in the country: Louisiana-Monroe is set for a dreadful season, but perhaps one with some long-term optimism under first-year head coach Bryant Vincent.
If the conference champion can take advantage of those weeks with lesser opponents and navigate through the top-tier competition, an 11-1 or 12-0 record heading into December would put it right in the mix for the College Football Playoff berth awarded to the fifth highest-rated conference champion.
The favorites: Two in the west
Four teams have odds that suggest winning the Sun Belt is genuinely viable, though those numbers may overlook a fifth. Some of that array ties to the conference still using division champions, meaning anyone in the West should have an easier path to a title game appearance.
Both Texas State and Louisiana warrant some deference in the West, the Bobcats enjoying homefield advantage in that matchup this season. On top of that, Texas State dodges conference favorite Appalachian State, a luxury neither the Ragin’ Cajuns nor South Alabama can enjoy. That edge alone explains the sizable difference in conference championship odds between the Bobcats and the other Western contenders.
The rest of the field
But do not overlook either James Madison in the East or South Alabama in the West. The Dukes have an edge in scheduling, dodging all Western contenders. The worry, though, is James Madison needs to replace more of its roster than nearly anyone else in the Sun Belt mix, ranking No. 123 out of 134 in returning production and ahead of only Louisiana-Monroe in the Sun Belt in this regard. Some of that was inevitable two years into an FCS-to-FBS transition, and some of it was compounded by players exiting after Dukes head coach Curt Cignetti took the Indiana job.
South Alabama has a similar worry, overall a thin roster, but the promotion of offensive coordinator Major Applewhite to head coach could spark this offense, led by first-year starting quarterback Gio Lopez. The Jaguars need to go to Appalachian State on Sept. 19, as well as to Louisiana on Nov. 16, but splitting those games could make the season finale vs. Texas State a play-in for the conference championship game.
Pick to win the Sun Belt
Appalachian State
Odds: +275 at DraftKings
Appalachian State won six of its last seven games in 2023 in no small part because quarterback Joey Aguilar found his footing. In his last nine games, he completed 67% of his passes for 295.1 yards per game, leading more of a pass-happy offense than is usually seen in Boone, N.C.
That offense will return in 2024, albeit replacing four O-line starters, with the top-six receivers and three leading ballcarriers all back in the fold. As both James Madison and Troy (last year’s Sun Belt champ) navigate restructuring, App. St.’s nine returning defensive starters should raise the floor of the most talented team in the conference.
Furthermore — and this is not a usual handicapping thought, but it does need to be mentioned — the Mountaineers will play for something a bit more intangible this season after All-Sun Belt right tackle Jack Murphy passed away in late April. Head coach Shawn Clark has led the program since 2019, but this offseason has presented him with a greater challenge than ever before, one that perhaps only on-field wins can propel the players through.
Sun Belt best bets for 2024
Southern Miss Under 4.5 wins
Odds: -170 at FanDuel
Southern Miss must navigate life without Frank Gore Jr., after the running back spent significant portions of the 2021 and 2022 seasons playing as a wildcat quarterback while rushing for more than 4,000 career yards and accounting for 37 career touchdowns, including 13 last year.
To figure out this new era, Golden Eagles head coach Will Hall tapped Chip Long to be his new offensive coordinator. Long hasn't lasted more than a season in a job since 2019, and a cynic can wonder if that will be the case again.
Southern Miss has three games it should win on its schedule (vs. FCS-level SE Louisiana, at Jacksonville State, and at Louisiana-Monroe), but the Eagles should be at least field-goal underdogs in all their other games, most of them much more than that.
If a likely 2-2 start becomes a 3-5 entry into November, Hall could be dispatched and all morale thus torpedoed, wrecking late-season hopes of clearing this win total.
That possibility should even embolden anyone able to find this win total Under an even four wins at +115 odds.
Georgia State Under 4.5 wins
Odds: -164 at FanDuel
When Shawn Elliott resigned during spring practices, Georgia State’s roster took a hit. Players could head out, while few could still transfer in.
And this wasn't a particularly strong team in the first place, finishing last regular season on a five-game losing streak, falling in those five by an average of 22.6 points.
The Panthers return one starting offensive lineman, the kind of weakness that could lead to another late-season spiral. Georgia State has a brutal four-game stretch as October becomes November, heading on the road to each of Marshall, Appalachian State, Connecticut and James Madison.
That could turn a 2-3 start into a 2-7 spiral, and winning each of the last three games would be a stunner. Winning even two of them would be a surprise enough to justify taking this at Under 4 wins at -110 where available.
Best Heisman Trophy bet for the Sun Belt
DraftKings doesn't list a single Sun Belt player on its Heisman board. It would take a truly historic season for someone in this conference to crack that conversation. The most likely possibility, Appalachian State quarterback Joey Aguilar.
He finished his first season as a starter with 3,757 passing yards and 33 touchdowns, adding three more scores on the ground.
Belief in the Mountaineers to reach the College Football Playoff stems from the opportunities the schedule presents — namely at Clemson on Sept. 7 and vs. Liberty on Sept. 28. Starring in those same moments could push Aguilar onto the national radar.
If he can throw for 4,000 yards and lead Appalachian State to a 13-0 Sun Belt championship and subsequent Playoff berth, an invite to New York City would be appropriate.
More College Football conference predictions
Sun Belt stat to know
In a sign of college football amid the transfer portal, eight of the Sun Belt’s 14 teams rank in the Bottom 30 in the country in terms of returning production, proven players all too often matriculating to Power Four programs or, in the case of former James Madison quarterback Jordan McCloud, to a conference rival in Texas State.
Only Louisiana (No. 15), Arkansas State (47), Texas State (51), and Appalachian State (62) rank in the top half of the country in returning production.
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