These two programs will meet for the first time in their history as FBS teams when the Texas State Bobcats and Rice Owls head to Dallas for the First Responder Bowl.
Neither team has any key opt-outs and we should see a regular season-style game that slightly favors Texas State in the college football odds.
Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Texas State vs. Rice at Gerald J. Ford Stadium on December 26 in the First Responder Bowl.
Texas State vs Rice best odds
Texas State vs Rice picks and predictions
It was a great season for both programs, as Texas State had its first winning season since 2014 and will be playing in their first-ever bowl game. Meanwhile, Rice had their first winning season since 2014 as well and will be playing in a second straight bowl game thanks to a 6-6 regular season.
The Bobcats relied on a strong offense to have their best season as an FBS team. They ranked 17th in the country averaging 36.0 points per game. They also averaged 470.8 total yards per game, which ranked 10th in the nation.
Quarterback TJ Finley threw for over 3,200 yards and accounted for 29 touchdowns with only eight interceptions. Meanwhile, running back Ismail Mahdi ran for over 1,200 yards with 10 touchdowns and a kick return touchdown. That near-perfect balance makes this offense one of the hardest to defend in all of college football.
On the other end, the Owls had a very inconsistent defense. They allowed 26.7 points per game (69th), but they played seven games where they allowed 30 or more points and played four games where they held the opposition under 17. They allowed 34 points to UTSA, who only scored 20 points on this same Texas State team this year.
The biggest issue for the Bobcats' offense is their knack for giving the ball away. They have lost a whopping 14 fumbles this season and thrown nine interceptions. The Bobcats rank 119th in the country with a -8-turnover margin. The good news is that the Owls, have only forced 12 turnovers on the year and rank 116th in turnover margin.
The Bobcats have no key opt-outs from this game and only have one real injury concern and that is top wideout Joey Hobert, who is questionable after missing the season finale. Even without Hobert, the Bobcats will be ready for their first-ever bowl game and will show out on the offensive end. I love their team total of Over 32.5 in this game, as they have hit that total in six games this year.
My best bet: Texas State team total Over 32.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Texas State vs Rice same-game parlay
Texas State team total Over 32.5 points
Rice team total Over 26.5 points
Texas State first half -3.5
With Texas State putting up a big number in this game, we can parlay in some other props to hit some nice odds.
While we talked about the Texas State offense, we did not mention their defense. They rank 118th allowing 33.8 points per game and only held four opponents below 30 points and no one below 20 points. It would be a surprise if the Owls did not get at least 27 points in this contest.
Finally, we will add the first half spread. I like the Bobcats to jump out firing on all cylinders early in their first ever bowl game and I expect most of their scoring to come early in this contest. We can add them to win the first half by 4 or more points here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texas State vs Rice spread and Over/Under analysis
The Owls will be without their starting quarterback JT Daniels who missed the end of the season with concussion issues. Backup AJ Padgett filled in decently but was nowhere near as explosive as Daniels. I would not trust him to be able to keep up with Finley and the Bobcats in a shootout.
While the Bobcats have a bad defense in terms of points and yardage, they can still make some big plays. They rank first in the entire country with 8.5 tackles for loss per game. Linebacker Brian Holloway has 16 tackles for loss to go along with being the leading tackler, 1.5 sacks, two interceptions, three forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries. Defensive end Ben Bell had 13 tackles for loss to go with eight sacks and a forced fumble.
The total in this game is surprisingly only 59.5 points. As someone who has both team total Overs in my same game parlay, I clearly like the Over here. Both teams are great at converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns, as the Bobcats have 38 touchdowns in 57 attempts and the Owls have 34 in 45.
Texas State vs Rice betting trend to know
Texas State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last four games. Find more college football betting trends for Texas State vs Rice.
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Texas State vs Rice game info
| Location: | Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, December 26, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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Texas State vs Rice weather
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