While the total for the Notre Dame vs. Penn State matchup in the Orange Bowl continues to drop, there is still value to be found in targeting certain touchdown scorers
It is the rules of football: Someone has to score in order to win. Now, of course, the game could end without any touchdowns, but that is obviously unlikely. Even a total of 44.5 argues strongly against such a comedy
With that in mind, let’s look at some Notre Dame vs. Penn State anytime touchdown picks before kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 9.
Penn State anytime touchdown pick
Drew Allar anytime touchdown
+300 at BetMGM
If there is an offense to doubt getting into the end zone, it is Penn State’s. The Nittany Lions did not notch an offensive tally against Ohio State in early November, the best defense they have faced this season and the closest comparable to Notre Dame’s
The Irish rank No. 2 in expected points added (EPA) per snap against, according to cfb-graphs. The Buckeyes sit No. 1.
Just about every aspect of their defenses fit line in line with each other, though Notre Dame gives up scoring opportunities on only 27.9% of opponent drives, No. 1 in the country, compared to Ohio State’s rate of 31.0%
Alas, BetMGM does not offer “no touchdown” or “defensive/special teams touchdown” on its anytime touchdown menu
Penn State had four other one-score games this season. Only running back Nicholas Singleton scored in all four of them, followed by quarterback Drew Allar with touchdowns in three of those contests
The difference in value between the two of them makes the choice clear. Singleton is available at -105 at BetMGM, while Allar’s +300 odds are exceptionally enticing
The logic of such a tally is simple. Penn State is facing one of the best defensive lines in the country. If the Nits do near the goal line, they will undoubtedly want an extra blocker to counter the Notre Dame front seven, and keeping the ball in Allar’s hands will allow that extra blocker
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Notre Dame anytime touchdown pick
Riley Leonard anytime touchdown
-105 at BetMGM
Notre Dame’s offense did not produce much against Georgia, which was somewhat the Irish plan. Play mistake-free football and count on the game to eventually break their way. That worked
The primary piece of Notre Dame’s offense that could be relied upon was quarterback Riley Leonard’s legs, taking 13 rushes for 91 yards, sack adjusted. He had the most carries, the most yards, and the highest average of the deep and potent Irish backfield
With star running back Jeremiyah Love hampered, look for Leonard to again regularly move the chains. Against a rush defense that is prone to giving up a decent enough rushing success rate, Leonard moving the chains should get Notre Dame into scoring territory
The Irish will not need to be at the goal line for Leonard to be a scoring threat, as he had a meandering 32-yarder against Georgia to get Notre Dame into field-goal range. And once inside the 15, the Irish are just as likely to call a Leonard draw play as they are anything else
Leonard has rushed for 15 touchdowns this season, scoring at least once in 10 of his last 13 games. Two of the exceptions were blowouts, the third coming in New Orleans.
Again, Notre Dame did not intend to play aggressively against Georgia; it knew a conservative game plan was the best path to winning. That should not be the case again against Penn State
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