The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Penn State Nittany Lions were both rather definitive in their College Football Playoff quarterfinal wins, though the Irish were actually downgraded in power ratings for beating Georgia.
Recognizing that absurd reality headlines my Notre Dame vs. Penn State predictions. These free college football picks run counter to most of the world, arguing for the Over in the Orange Bowl.
Kickoff comes at 7:30 pm ET on Thursday, January 9.
Notre Dame vs Penn State prediction and best bet
My best bet
Over 45.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The world has overreacted to Notre Dame’s offensive performance against Georgia.
Let’s state a few truths: Entering the Sugar Bowl, the Bulldogs’ defense ranked No. 10 by SP+ metrics and No. 12 in expected points added (EPA) per snap against. Georgia’s defense is nowhere near its 2021 levels, but it is a stellar defense that should not be knocked.
Entering the Sugar Bowl, the Irish offense ranked No. 4 in SP+ metrics, holding a value of 39.7. Understanding that value is not important at the moment, just note that it fell to 38.5 despite the Sugar Bowl win, now No. 6.
It cannot be denied that the Irish did not do much offensively against the Bulldogs, scoring just 16 points — seven more came on a kickoff return — with the only touchdown the product of a one-play, 13-yard drive. Notre Dame succeeded on only 36% of its snaps.
But that was the Irish plan. The offense should not be so downgraded because the plan succeeded.
Notre Dame gave up exactly one tackle for loss against a defensive front that notched 25 of them in two games against Texas. Quarterback Riley Leonard took 13 rushes for 91 yards, forcing six missed tackles and averaging 4.47 yards after contact per rush.
Those plays were not designed to break loose on the scoreboard. They were intended to keep the Irish from any mistakes that would set up the Bulldogs with an advantageous field position, always the only way to a win for this Georgia team.
The Irish have since been downgraded by advanced metrics for achieving its offensive game plan. That creates value for us in the betting market.
Total now to 44.5 at some books.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) January 8, 2025
And I still disagree. https://t.co/SoIuI8Jha3
On the other side of the ball, Penn State’s insistence on passing the ball should further this argument for an Over. The Irish have the best pass defense in the country, one so good that opponents usually give up on the pass, running the ball 6.5% more often than an average team would in a given game state, the fourth-highest rate in the country.
However, the Nittany Lions are not programmed to do that, ranking in the bottom third of the country in rushing rate over expectations. That is in part because, as good as Penn State’s rushing attack is, its passing attack determines the ceiling.
Look at it this way: The Nits rank No. 13 in EPA gained per rush, adding an average of 0.078 points on each rushing attempt; their No. 4 rank in EPA per dropback comes with an average of 0.137 points added per dropback.
Succeeding at that rushing pace will not win at this level. Succeeding at that passing pace will.
Now, Penn State may struggle to succeed against the best-passing defense in the country, but finding some eventual success through the air will be the Nittany Lions’ best path to a national title game appearance.
At some point, Penn State will find some passing success, even amid struggles. And that stubbornness to stick through the air will only help this Over cash.
Notre Dame vs Penn State same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 44.5
Notre Dame moneyline
Drew Allar 1+ passing touchdowns
In a very sincere manner, can anyone find a margin in which Penn State has a clear edge? This is a remarkably even game, at least on paper, so the study should be on what smaller aspect of the game could dictate an edge.
Notre Dame has a better turnover margin, though both quarterbacks are quite safe with the ball. The Irish special teams also create better field position, as kicker Mitch Jeter is 5-of-6 on field goals in the Playoff, apparently righting his season-long struggles.
As good as the Nittany Lions are, and they very much are, they lack an edge in any particular area that could determine this game when the primary units play to a draw.
Adding in a Drew Allar passing touchdown is a rather conservative thought in line with the Over intentions. Penn State will throw the ball. That is who offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is.
I am not sure if @Covers_Caley was asking it rhetorically, but when he asked, "How would you describe Drew Allar," I was overly pleased with my response.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) January 7, 2025
✅NFL tools
❌Penn State QB in him pic.twitter.com/i6RyWID7WN
At some point, that will succeed, even against the best-passing defense in the country.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Notre Dame vs Penn State odds
Notre Dame vs Penn State live odds
Notre Dame vs Penn State opening odds
- Penn State vs. Notre Dame spread: Notre Dame -1.5
- Penn State vs. Notre Dame moneyline: Notre Dame -125, Penn State +105
- Penn State vs. Notre Dame Over/Under: 46.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Notre Dame vs Penn State spread and Over/Under analysis
- As Notre Dame polished off Georgia, this spread opened with the Irish favored by 1.5 and moved to -2 within that same night.
- As of Tuesday evening, this spread peaked at -2.5 for most of Tuesday before falling back to -1.5.
- The total opened at 46.5 and climbed to 47.5 for a brief respite before ticking down to 45.5 early in the week.
Notre Dame vs Penn State betting trend to know
Notre Dame has covered the spread in 10 straight games, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 11.4 points in that span. Find more college football betting trends for Notre Dame vs Penn State.
Penn State vs Notre Dame game info
| Location: | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Thursday, 1-9-2025 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
ESPN |
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