There's plenty at stake for Texas and Texas A&M when they renew their century-old rivalry tonight.
The winner of this grudge match advances to the SEC Championship. For Texas, a win would virtually guarantee a playoff spot with a high seed, while a loss for Texas A&M would end their hopes entirely.
With all that on the line, my Texas vs. Texas A&M predictions and college football picks believe points will be at a premium on Saturday, November 30.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. EST at Kyle Field in College Station, with the game airing on ABC.
Texas vs Texas A&M prediction and best bet
Who will win?
Texas comes out on top in a particularly dull game because of its defense. It's one of the best units in the country and will make one (or two) more plays than A&M. This game will be an excellent example of an elite defense and one that is merely just good.
My best bet
Pick: Under 49.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
This has the feel of an ugly game. I made this number 44.5, so I'm happy to be playing it at 49.5, a number that is a significant outlier compared to the rest of the market.
Beyond the matchup specifics, a few situational elements of this game suggest a more conservative approach from both head coaches.
We need to find out how healthy Texas Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers is after last week's ankle injury. He's good enough to play and will start, but if you read between the lines, I wonder if he's close to 100%. Ewers skipped the lone media availability on Monday and looked bothered throughout the win against Kentucky while leading a Horns' offense that went run-heavy late in the game.
On the other hand, QB Marcel Reed has certainly given Texas A&M a lift since being entirely handed the keys, but he's still a freshman starting in the biggest game of his young career against the best defense he's seen. That leads to some safer playcalling. Against a highly vaulted South Carolina defense, he threw the ball only 28 times, and much of that came late. I'd expect a similar approach here.
If Texas is forced to run heavily, it will play into the strengths of the Aggies' defense. A&M ranks just inside the top 30 nationally in EPA allowed per rush and has additionally done an impressive job of slowing down the chunk runs that Texas has lived off much of the season.
On the other side of the ball, I'm not backing a QB with minimal experience to be able to put up many points in a game of this nature. Pound for pound, Texas has just as much of an argument for being labeled "best defense in the country" as anyone. The numbers tell the story: Texas ranks 2nd nationally in EPA per dropback, 18th in EPA allowed per rush, and 4th in success rate. Simply staying on schedule will be a significant challenge for A&M, let alone scoring the 20sh points needed for this to go Over.
Texas vs Texas A&M same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 49.5
Under 9.5 first quarter
Tre Wisner anytime TD
We paired our best bet with a same-game parlay that is heavily correlated but still valuable.
I expect to see the heaviest level of conservative approach in the first quarter of this one. It should take a bit for Reed to settle into a game like this and this setting. On the other hand, the early goings could be a bit "experimental" for Ewers to see what his ankle allows him to do.
I rounded things off with a Wisner anytime touchdown. He's the most dynamic skill-set player on the field who should get heavy volume after running for over 150 yards last week.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texas vs Texas A&M odds
Texas vs Texas A&M live odds
Texas vs Texas A&M opening odds
- Texas vs. Texas A&M spread: Texas A&M +4.5
- Texas vs. Texas A&M moneyline: Texas -160, Texas A&M +135
- Texas vs. Texas A&M Over/Under: 48.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Texas vs Texas A&M spread and Over/Under analysis
- Texas has covered just once over its last five games; Texas A&M has done the same.
- These two teams have split their six head-to-head meetings since 2006.
- The Under has been a profitable bet in those meetings, with the total going in that direction in all but one.
- 51% of Covers Consensus users are backing Texas A&M on the spread, while 65% are taking the Over.
Texas vs Texas A&M betting trend to know
Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.25 Units / 4% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Texas vs Texas A&M.
Texas vs Texas A&M game info
| Location: | Kyle Field, College Station, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-30, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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