Someone needs to tell the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, “it’s not your fault”.
When the Alabama Crimson Tide lays absolute waste to its visitors this weekend, someone needs to make sure the Warhawks know they did not cause this. When Nick Saban’s week of anger results in Alabama taking that frustration out on Monroe, make sure the Sun Belt’s least knows this has nothing to do with it.
The Tide have stewed over their close win at Texas for a week. For Saban, this may have been the most enjoyable week of the year.
Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Louisiana-Monroe vs Alabama on September 17.
UL Monroe vs Alabama best odds
UL Monroe vs Alabama picks and predictions
To make life even harder on Louisiana-Monroe, a reporter asked Saban this week how he handles his players’ motivation when the opponent may not be as tough.
“That’s your opinion on the quality of the opponent,” Saban said. “It’s not mine.”
If he had not spent the week getting his team’s attention, that old-fashioned rat poison should help Saban put the finishing touches on the week’s focus.
It’s not just that Alabama almost lost to Texas. A 20-19 win on the road would give Saban enough teaching moments in this week’s film sessions to command his team’s heed. But worse than that for Louisiana-Monroe, the Tide committed 15 penalties for 100 yards.
The fire beneath Alabama has undoubtedly been stoked by Saban this week. This is a coach’s favorite week. His team got a win, but it gave him only lessons to teach. There was probably not an ounce of praise in the Tide’s football facility this week, only reminders of the mistakes at Texas.
Again, the tempest that awaits the Warhawks has nothing to do with them. This onslaught would meet anyone this week, no matter who the opponent was.
But that does not mean it will hold up the entire game. While Alabama should come out with a unique aggressiveness, expecting anyone to win by more than seven touchdowns is bold. For a few years now, the best bet in college football has been on the Tide to cover the first-half spread, and it feels particularly obvious this week. Alabama might cover the 49.5 points — that’s the whole game spread — in the first half before allowing an extended backdoor cover after halftime.
That has been the tendency in these games the last few years. Not to cast too wide of a generalization, but once past a certain level of competency, all opponents are the same against the Tide.
Since 2017, teams similar to Louisiana-Monroe — like Utah State to open this year, Vanderbilt, two games apiece against New Mexico State and Southern Miss — have lost the first half in nine games by an average score of 38.4 to 2.2. After halftime, that margin falls to 17.2 to 5, with Louisiana-Lafayette actually winning the second half against Alabama in 2018.
And if a prop bet exists to take the Under on penalties committed by the Tide, perhaps take a look at that, too.
My best bet: Alabama first half -31.0 (-110 at Caesars)
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UL Monroe vs Alabama betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
Michigan is not even expected to beat UConn by this much. A spread of 49.5 is, to say this simply, a lot of points.
Yet, for the Tide, maybe it is not too many. Alabama was favored by 41.5 against Utah State to open the season and covered easily in a 55-0 win. Including that, the Tide has been favored by at least 40 points against an FBS opponent in six games since 2017. It did not cover that hefty number in the first three instances, but it has now rattled off three straight ATS wins.
A hook away from 50 is a different kind of spread, though. Alabama can cover it, winning 49-3 when favored by 51 against New Mexico State last year. But assuming the Tide will not take a casual 35-0 lead into halftime and simply ease to a 45-0 win is a risk you should think about twice before taking.
Over/Under analysis
A total of 61.5 with this large of a spread is essentially asking, can the Warhawks score a touchdown? The team total of 3.5 for Louisiana-Monroe is asking the same thing.
If thinking no, do not jump to the Under too quickly. Alabama scored 59 on New Mexico State last year and 63 against Southern Miss just a month earlier. That prolific 2020 offense poured in 63 at Mississippi, just a year after racking up 59 against the Rebels and 62 against New Mexico State.
Saban never wanted college football to become such an offense-driven game, but he mastered it once it did. No total is safe from Alabama alone, even if the Tide is unlikely to give up any mistake to the WarHawks.
Thus far this year, the greatest worry about Alabama’s dynasty is perhaps the receivers are not as potent as needed, leaving junior quarterback Bryce Young to do the work all on his own. If there is ever an afternoon to work on those timings, it’s against the worst of the Sun Belt.
These conflicting thoughts of a blowout being unnecessary but certainly within the Tide’s reach lend further clarity to playing only a first-half angle.
UL Monroe vs Alabama game info
• Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
• Date: Saturday, September 17, 2022
• Kick-off: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: SEC Network
UL Monroe vs Alabama key injuries
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UL Monroe vs Alabama weather
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UL Monroe vs Alabama betting trend to know
Alabama is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against the Sun Belt. Find more NCAA betting trends for UL Monroe vs. Alabama.
