After a long walk through the offseason wilderness, college football has finally returned. While Week 0 served to whet the appetite, Week 1 is when things finally feel real, as we settle in for a three-day weekend, drop the tailgates, and fire up the grills.
Week 1 is also a great chance for savvy bettors to find value for potential upsets, and we’ve tabbed three games where the underdog has a solid chance to pull off the win.
Here are our Week 1 college football upset picks.
College football upset picks for Week 1
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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NC State at East Carolina (+340)
The Wolfpack come into this season with high expectations and a high ranking. Their defense last season was good, and they return 10 starters, including linebacker Drake Thomas, their leading tackler from last season who also tied for the team lead in sacks. They return seven starters on offense, including quarterback Devin Leary and his 3,400 yards passing and 35 touchdowns from a year ago.
So why do I think they should be on upset watch? Of those four starters who departed, the biggest one was left tackle Ikem Ekwonu, who was selected sixth overall in this spring’s NFL Draft. Another was running back Zonovan Knight, who scored 13 touchdowns and ran for more than 1,500 yards the past two seasons on just 283 carries. He and Ricky Person, their other top running back, are both gone, leaving a big question mark in that backfield.
There are no question marks in that area for East Carolina, with Keaton Mitchell averaging nearly 6.5 yards per carry last season. They also return six other starters on offense, including quarterback Holton Ahlers, and tight end Ryan Jones, a matchup problem for nearly any defense. On the other side of the ball, eight starters come back, including Phil Steele preseason All-American corner Malik Fleming. This squad might be the best Mike Houston has had since taking over the program.
NC State is used to getting off to a comfortable start at home, but I don’t expect that to be the case in its first road opener in 14 years. ECU can grind the game down to a crawl with Mitchell and sophomore backup Rahjai Harris, and the Pirates have shown they are tough to beat at home, especially in a rivalry game. NC State hasn’t won here since 2007, and only four of the last 11 ACC teams to square off with the Pirates have come away with a win. This one has upset written all over it for me.
PICK: NC State (+340 at FanDuel)
BYU vs. South Florida (+340)
BYU is a very good team, and it’s rightly favored in this game. Jaren Hall led the Cougars to a 10-3 record a year ago, as they finished the season ranked inside the Top 25 following an Independence Bowl victory over UAB. Hall had just seven turnover-worthy snaps on drop-backs all season, and he will likely have an even better run in 2022 behind a terrific offensive line. USF’s defense is unlikely to slow him down — but it might not need to.
USF returns 10 starters on the offensive side of the ball from a team that went 2-10 last season. While you’re probably asking yourself right about now why exactly I’m picking USF to potentially pull off an upset, you should know the one starter that’s being replaced is quarterback Timmy McClain, who threw just five touchdown passes last year and barely cleared 2,100 total yards on the season. Despite all that, the Bulls lost in Provo last year by just eight points.
Enter Gerry Bohanon, the former Baylor quarterback who was one of the more exciting players in the country prior to his injury last season. He immediately improves the offense and can make plays with his legs should the offensive line struggle. His presence should also help open things up a bit for running back Brian Battie, an explosive player who returned three kicks for touchdowns last season.
Bohanon has shown he can lead a team to victory. He was 10-2 as a starter last season, with wins over Oklahoma, Iowa State, and…BYU. BYU will be traveling across the country, which is always difficult to adapt to. If the Bulls can keep the game close heading into the fourth quarter, Bohanon and company will have a real shot at knocking off the Cougars.
PICK: South Florida (+340 at BetMGM)
Boise State (+120) vs. Oregon State
The Broncos are returning nearly everyone from last year’s two-deep on defense, which could be key to springing an opening-weekend upset. Offenses can sometimes struggle a bit out of the gates when new players are trying to settle in, and Oregon State has a strong pass rush that can disrupt quarterback Chance Nolan. That cohesion and experience also give it a leg up against Oregon State’s run game, which Boise will likely rely on early and often given the lack of quality depth it has at wide receiver.
On the offensive side of the ball, Boise State will rely on returning quarterback Hank Bachmeier, who threw for more than 260 yards per game in 2021. Oregon State returns nine starters on defense, but it ranked in the bottom third of the country in pass defense, and the two starters it lost were in the secondary.
Boise State also will have George Holani in the backfield, who is healthy after dealing with injury issues in 2021, but despite those injuries, still topped four yards per carry in six of his nine games. This year, with a better offensive line in front of him, he could be the workhorse that can allow them to close out games like these.
One other thing that plays into Boise State’s favor is the construction at Reser Stadium. The Beavers won all six of their home games last season, but the renovations have dropped capacity this season by more than 30%. With a maximum capacity this season of just over 26,000 fans, even a fully-packed stadium will be far from daunting for the Broncos.
Oregon State’s offensive line is one of the better units in the country, but Boise State has the pass rush to cause them problems. If the Broncos can disrupt Nolan — or whichever quarterback may replace him, as it was a tight battle throughout camp — and keep the score low, it gives them a terrific opportunity to spring the upset on the road.
PICK: Boise State (+120 at DraftKings)
