Florida head coach Billy Nappier may have bought himself another season by getting to a bowl game. His reward? A stern test when the Florida Gators meet the Tulane Green Wave.
It's been another impressive season for Tulane, which spent most of the year in the college football playoff discussion and notched a nine-win season.
My Tulane vs. Florida predictions and college football picks will explain why you should ride the (Green) wave in the opening half vs. the Gators on Friday, December 20.
Tulane vs Florida prediction and best bet
My best bet
Tulane +6.5 1H (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
As with any bowl game, there are many moving parts here. And as a disclaimer for bowl season, it's something to remember while betting. Unless you can calculate a significant edge — typically information-based — it's wise to size your bets according to the unknowns surrounding the game.
Now that's out of the way, I'm grabbing Tulane to compete early in this one and taking the 1H Spread as my best bet. Competing amongst adversity goes in keeping with the DNA of their program, and Florida showing up in bowl games doesn't have the best track record.
It's a unique situation for the Wave. For a while, it looked like its head coach, Jon Sumrall, could be headed to greener pastures before signing a contract extension and will start a backup quarterback who has already entered the portal. So why back them? Well, it's simple. QB Ty Thompson may have the most to gain from this start. Usually, it's to attract other suitors to transfer to, and I think he's pretty good.
The Junior only threw 11 passes this season for 74 yards but looked in command of the offense while throwing for two touchdowns. He's done the majority of his damage, however, on the ground, being used in various packages and accumulating 243 yards on 40 carries. That can cause some issues for Florida, especially early.
This Gators defense lost all three of its best cornerbacks throughout the season due to injuries, and it will also be missing multiple defensive pieces coming into this one via the transfer portal. DL Jack Pyburn, who had over 300 snaps this season, has already committed to LSU, and key rotation pieces Justus Boone and Kelby Collins will miss this game.
Simply put, I'm not sure this Florida team — especially its front four — comes out of the gates fully prepared to stop a dual-threat QB. Ole Miss's Jaxson Dart shredded a Florida team with those pieces for 71 yards on the ground two weeks before the season ended, which continued a theme throughout the season. In addition to that, I have confidence backing Sumrall in these spots.
Despite the rocky end to the year, he's become one of the hottest names in football because of his game prep and dynamic offense. I suspect we see those calling cards here.
Tulane vs Florida same-game parlay (SGP)
Florida moneyline
DJ Lagway anytime touchdown
Ty Thompson anytime touchdown
Although I suspect Florida will get into a fight early on, its talent and DJ Lagway are the difference. I'm pairing it with both signal callers to find paydirt.
I've already spoken about Thompson's ability on the ground and why I expect him to cause Florida trouble, so it makes sense to include him. As for Lagway, he's yet to score a touchdown this season despite being relatively productive on the ground. Also, we've seen Tulane being vulnerable there. It was Army, and they do it to mostly everyone, but having QB Bryson Daily put 126 yards for four touchdowns on film against Tulane just two weeks ago has to weigh on Nappier's mind. With that, I think we'll see Lagway get some decent volume in goal-line situations.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Tulane vs Florida odds
Tulane vs Florida live odds
Tulane vs Florida opening odds
- Tulane vs. Florida spread: Florida -11.5
- Tulane vs. Florida moneyline: Tulane +350, Florida -450
- Tulane vs. Florida Over/Under: 50.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Tulane vs Florida spread and Over/Under analysis
- This line has danced all over the place, getting as high as +14.5 at one point before settling to the current number of +10.5
- Given the proximity between the two schools, these two teams have never met in the modern era of college football, which enhances the emotions for this one.
- Tulane reeled to end the year getting blown out by Army in its conference championship off the back of a loss to Memphis.
- The Gators were an ATS darling this year, going 8-2 in that respect, including three consecutive covers to end the year.
Tulane vs Florida betting trend to know
Tulane has covered the Spread in 5 of their last six away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Tulane vs Florida.
Tulane vs Florida game info
| Location: | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Friday, 12-20-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Tulane vs Florida latest injuries
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