With just three weeks left in the regular season, we’ve got plenty of data on our hands. It makes it easier to pick games, look for favorable lines, and know what teams are good at and what they struggle against.
But it also means we’re at a point in the season where teams can be desperate to get wins —either because they’re seeking bowl eligibility or playoff position, or simply to beat a rival — and can lead to upsets the data says shouldn’t happen.
With that in mind, here are three games we feel offer the best upset value for you as we jump into Week 11's college football upset picks!
College football upset picks for Week 11
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for some college football betting, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can get a deposit bonus of up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of college football promo codes for 2022.
Iowa State vs Oklahoma State (+106)
Iowa State finally got a win. After losing five straight games — three of them by a field goal or less — the Cyclones got back into the win column with a 31-14 victory over West Virginia last weekend. Hunter Dekkers threw for 219 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and the Mountaineers were held to just 200 yards of total offense as Iowa State moved to 4-5 and kept its bowl hopes alive.
But it’s important to know a few things about West Virginia. First, its ranks just 82nd in the nation in yards per play offensively, and it’s not very good at passing. The Mountaineers do much better at running it, which was hurt by the absence of breakout freshman CJ Donaldson, who suffered a season-ending injury against TCU the week before.
The reason it’s important to keep those things in mind is that Oklahoma State offers a whole new challenge for the Cyclones. The Cowboys rank 21st in the country in passing yards and passing attempts per game — an important item to note, given Iowa State’s pass defense rankings are skewed a bit by having faced the eighth-fewest pass attempts per game this season.
Iowa State’s ability to keep the ball for long stretches of time plays into that, but Oklahoma State doesn’t need the ball long to score points. It ranks 115th in time of possession, and 26th in scoring offense at 33.3 points per game. Plus, Iowa State doesn’t tend to do a whole lot with that possession, as one of the worst teams in the country at running the football. The Cyclones like to dink-and-dunk their way down the field, but that could prove difficult against an Oklahoma State defense allowing the fifth-lowest conversion rate on third downs.
Oklahoma State has lost two in a row, and three of the last four, but the Cowboys are unbeaten at home this season. Had they come into this game on a winning streak, I could see them overlooking Iowa State with the rivalry game against Oklahoma next week. I expect the Cowboys to be locked in and focused on getting that seventh victory, and they’ll get enough stops on defense to get the win.
PICK: Oklahoma State moneyline (+106)
Texas Christian (+250) vs Texas
I could tell you this pick is simply because I’ve been on the TCU train for much of the season, and won’t get off until someone shows they can derail it. But I like TCU to spring the upset for more reasons than that.
First of all, there may not be a team more battle-tested and proven in the entire country. The month of October saw the Horned Frogs play four straight ranked opponents — and they won all four, including two of them with second-half comebacks. They went into a hostile environment at Kansas and won with College Gameday on site.
They continue to win because Max Duggan refuses to let the Horned Frogs lose. Duggan has thrown for more than 2,400 yards and 24 touchdowns with just two interceptions, while adding another 282 yards and four scores on the ground. He’s made plays whenever his team has needed him to, and he’s got a cannon — a big reason why Duggan is tied for the most passes of 50 or more yards this season.
Teammate Kendre Miller is as hot as any running back in the country, having scored a touchdown in every game this season. But Texas will pose a real challenge to him. The Longhorns rank 16th in yards per carry allowed, and 27th in rushing yards allowed per game.
But the biggest weakness for Texas this season is the inability to prevent chunk plays in the passing game. While they rarely give up deep throws, the Longhorns rank 99th in pass plays allowed of 10 or more yards, and 90th in passes of 20 or more yards. While the potential absence of receiver Quentin Johnston could be an issue, Duggan has more than enough weapons to make plays with.
The Longhorns struggle to get off the field on third down defensively, and that will allow him to convert when needed. Duggan will cause problems for a Texas defense that struggles to get sacks, and it will likely allow Miller some room to operate as they try to handle a balanced offensive attack. Kansas State was able to run on the Longhorns, and Adrian Martinez had a field day passing against them. Duggan should do even better.
If you want to play it safe, take the Horned Frogs to cover the spread against Texas for the fifth time in six trips to KDR Texas Memorial Stadium. If you want to be bold, do what I’m doing — take the Horned Frogs to win the game outright and keep their unbeaten season alive, along with their potential spot in the playoff.
PICK: TCU moneyline (+250)
North Carolina (+4.5) vs Wake Forest
The Tar Heels come into the game ranked, top of the conference — and the college football odds underdog. That’s because their defense simply can’t seem to stop anybody else from scoring. North Carolina is allowing almost 32 points per game and ranks near the bottom of the nation in total yards allowed, third-down defense, yards allowed per play, and points per play.
But the Tar Heels have been outstanding away from home, winning all five road contests this season. More importantly, they’re finding ways to win close games on the road, with their last three away victories over Miami, Duke, and Virginia each coming by one field goal.
Wake Forest has lost two straight, both on the road, and now returns home to face a rival with little to play for besides pride and a better bowl game. The Demon Deacons are 6-3 after reaching the 10th spot in the rankings before their upset loss at Louisville. Sam Hartman has looked like a shell of himself the past two weeks, committing six turnovers against the Cardinals and throwing another three picks last week against NC State.
While Hartman and the Demon Deacons will likely be able to put up points, it’s his turnover issues of late that make this a very possible upset. The Tar Heels are playing to win the division and reach the ACC title game, and getting a gift or two from Wake Forest could be the difference in this one. North Carolina doesn’t force many turnovers, but getting an extra possession or two would give them a much higher chance of winning against a Wake Forest team that ranks 82nd in points allowed per play.
If Hartman is able to take care of the football, I don’t know that I trust the Tar Heels to get enough stops defensively to win this one outright. What I do know is that I trust North Carolina’s offense to put up points in bunches, which will keep the team in the game until the very end regardless of Hartman’s performance. That’s why although I’ll dabble a bit on the moneyline, I will happily take the points as the Tar Heels cover.
PICK: North Carolina +4.5 (-110)
