NCAAF Underdog Picks of the Week: Count on Kansas in Week 12

Nebraska moneyline

Best odds: +245 at bet365

Dylan Riola has thrown just one touchdown versus six interceptions in his last four games, including three straight defeats. Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Matt Rhule knew he had to make a change, and he did so this week when he demoted Marcus Satterfield from offensive coordinator and handed play calling duties to Dana Holgorsen.  

Holgorsen ran a high-powered offense at Houston and Riola should benefit from a new set of eyes and an OC who knows how to get the most out of his quarterback’s skill set. And the USC Trojans defense is a unit that they should be able to take advantage of.

The Trojans have shown success on third downs, but the 6.05 average yards-to-go on third down is among the lowest numbers in the country. That’s in large part due to ranking 109th in early down EPA/play, as opposing teams are completing 67.1% of their throws and the Trojans are struggling to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Nebraska has an outstanding run defense, and that will put pressure on new Trojan quarterback Jayden Maiava. The former UNLV standout takes over for Miller Moss as USC hopes to turn things around after losing five of their last seven games, with his mobility helping offset the poor pass protection Moss has received. 

While the Huskers haven’t been dominant defensively, one thing they’re doing well is getting after the quarterback. Nebraska ranks 13th nationally in sack rate, and its defense should slow down Woody Marks enough to force obvious passing situations. 

Maiava will make some plays with his legs, but he was turnover prone last season and that will bite him here. Nebraska comes up with at least two picks, and Riola has a strong day as the Huskers pull off the upset and become bowl eligible.  

Tennessee moneyline

Best odds: +300 at BetMGM

The Georgia Bulldogs defense has been stellar this season, and it’s the primary reason the Dawgs are still in contention for a playoff spot. But my college football picks think that comes crashing down on Saturday against the Tennessee Volunteers.

There’s only so much the defense can do when the offense isn’t holding up its end of the bargain, and Carson Beck didn’t help last week. Their 28-10 loss to Ole Miss saw the Bulldogs doing everything short of handing the ball to the Rebels at times, as Beck threw a pick and put the ball on the ground while getting sacked — one of four fumbles Georgia had on the day.

Georgia has played two teams this season with strong defensive lines, and Kentucky and Ole Miss held the Bulldogs to a combined 22 points. While both games came on the road, a defensive line doesn’t struggle with communication away from home, and Tennessee’s front unit won’t be fazed.

The Vols rank in the Top 5 nationally in EPA/rush, early down EPA/play, and average third down distance. They also rank Top 10 in EPA/pass and third-down success, 20th in sack rate, and are getting pressure on more than 40% of opponent’s drop backs.

This season, Beck has posted a passer rating of less than 35.0 when under pressure, and has a turnover-worthy play rate of 4.45%. His last four games have seen him throw nine interceptions against five touchdowns, and he’s had 3+ turnovers in each of Georgia’s last three games. 

Furthermore, he’s completing just 52.1% of his throws on third down on the season. Trevor Etienne is once again out for the Dawgs, putting more pressure on his shoulders against a defense allowing a third-down conversion rate of just 27.9% in conference play. 

Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava is expected to go, and he needs to simply take care of the ball and lean on his run game. Georgia ranks 19th in EPA/rush defensively, but only 50th in early down EPA and 51st in third-down yardage. The Dawgs are middle of the pack in SEC play with 3.56 yards allowed per carry, and Dylan Sampson is a workhorse.

While Georgia is at home and is likely to win more often than not, the Vols are very capable of getting the upset here and the price is far too good to pass up. Lock it in fast, as I expect this spread will shrink quickly once Iamaleava’s status is confirmed.

Kansas moneyline

Best odds: +120 at DraftKings

There’s a reason an undefeated home team is only a 2.5-point favorite against an opponent with a 3-6 record, and that’s because both teams have been on the opposite side of the luck equation. Unfortunately for the BYU Cougars, I think this is the week it all catches up to them.

BYU is fortunate to still be undefeated. The Cougars trailed 21-10 at halftime last week, but rallied to win the Holy War over Utah by a single point. It was the second time in three games that the Cougars won by a field goal or less, and where they won the game with a play in the final 15 seconds of the game. 

The Kansas Jayhawks have won only three of nine games, but five of its six defeats have come by six or fewer points. Its defense has let it down often this season, as the Jayhawks rank 100th or worse in EPA/rush, early down EPA/play, and yards allowed per pass.

But last week, the Jayhawks upset Iowa State by simply going out and doing whatever they wanted offensively against the Cyclones. The Jayhawks racked up 532 yards of offense, including 237 yards on the ground, and avoided turning the ball over. Iowa State’s one pick ended up being the difference on the day.

BYU’s offense hasn’t been anything stellar this season, and the defense has been carrying them. The Cougars have forced turnovers in bunches, ranking in the Top 5 nationally in takeaways. But there’s been one area where they’ve struggled, and that’s stopping the run.

The Cougars rank 106th in EPA/rush, and opponents are averaging 4.5 yards per carry this season. That number has remained steady in Big 12 play as well, with opponents averaging 146.6 yards per game on the ground.

That’s going to be a problem against a Kansas offense ranked sixth in EPA/rush, fourth in late down success, and 15th in average third-down distance. The Jayhawks are averaging over 200 rushing yards per game against conference foes, with 5.35 yards per carry. And the offense has been hitting explosive plays on the ground, with 26.4% of their rushing attempts going for 10+ yards in six conference games. 

The Cougars are giving up double-digit rushes on 17.1% of carries to Big 12 opposition, and Kansas has three players who can break one at any moment. Devin Neal is averaging 5.9 yards per tote, while backup Daniel Hishaw Jr is averaging six. Jalon Daniels has upped his rushing output of late, going for at least 58 yards and a touchdown in three straight games.

But the biggest catalyst for the Jayhawks and their recent offensive improvement is the lack of turnovers. Daniels has thrown just one interception in his last four games, and if he can avoid the turnovers in a hostile environment, it’ll make things much tougher for a BYU offense ranked 123rd in third-down success rate. 

Kansas has led going into the final two minutes of each of its last two road games, and lost by a combined six points. They finally shake off their bad luck, and deny BYU its undefeated season.