We reach the halfway point for many programs this weekend, as some teams begin to jostle for position in the polls while others reevaluate their preseason expectations. It’s a crucial week in several spots, especially following another week filled with upsets across the board.
Conference action tends to bring out some shocking results, and we’ve got three games this week between conference foes that we feel are ripe for upsets — or closer-than-expected results. Here are our college football upset picks for Week 6.
College football upset picks for Week 6
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Eastern Michigan (+175) at Western Michigan
We start our upset picks with a little MACtion on Saturday. The Eagles are feeling good after rallying from a 13-0 deficit to beat UMass with 20 unanswered points. They did so on the back of a rushing attack that gained 217 yards on 43 carries, moving them to 4.9 yards per carry this season, which is good for 29th in the country. They did so without starting quarterback Taylor Powell, who missed the game with an injury.
Only 13 teams have allowed more yards per carry this season than the Broncos of Western Michigan. Their average of 5.3 yards against per run was actually lowered last week in their win over FCS New Hampshire, in which they allowed just 44 yards on 39 carries. The week before, they were blown out by San Jose State after allowing 128 yards rushing on 23 carries.
Western Michigan isn’t really great at anything on the offensive side of the ball. It ranks 104th in yards per carry, and ranks in the 100s in nearly every passing category. Its pass defense isn’t very good either, giving up the 73rd most yards despite facing the 14th-fewest attempts per game. That bodes poorly for the Broncos should they fall behind, especially against an Eastern Michigan unit that has scored on every red zone trip this year.
Rivalry games are always fun, and this one is no exception. The underdog has covered the spread in the last four meetings between these two programs — which is good news for the Eagles, given they’ve been that underdog each time. Western Michigan has covered the spread just once in the last six matchups, and the road team has covered the spread in five of the last seven games between these two teams.
PICK: Eastern Michigan moneyline (+175)
Louisville at Virginia (+125)
Brock Domann is expected to start at quarterback for the Cardinals this weekend at Virginia, with starter Malik Cunningham very likely to miss the game with concussion-like symptoms following a helmet-to-helmet hit last weekend. The junior quarterback has completed just six of his 16 pass attempts in his collegiate career, and against Boston College, he went 1-for-8 with an interception.
Starting your first game on the road is never easy, but Louisville’s lack of success on the road under Scott Satterfield makes it even more precarious. The Cardinals have won just three of their last 13 games away from home, and just two of their last seven games overall. They’ve also seemingly been unable to beat the Cavaliers of late. They’ve won just one of their last four games against Virginia, losing each of the last two.
Louisville’s biggest weakness is their run defense, and that bodes well for Virginia. The Cavs’ offense has been struggling the past few weeks, but running back Perris Jones has had success when he’s been given the opportunity. He’s averaged at least five yards per carry in four games this season. This could also be a terrific opportunity for Brennan Armstrong to get back on track, as Louisville’s pass defense is among the worst in the country.
Virginia’s run defense has been suspect at times, but I expect it to load the box, shut down Satterfield’s predictable play-calling, and force Domann to beat them. The eighth-best team in sack percentage will put him under pressure and force the Cardinals into enough mistakes to once again send them home with a loss.
PICK: Virginia moneyline (+125)
Washington State (+350) at Southern California
If not for an absolute implosion in the final four minutes against Oregon, the Cougars would be coming into this game with a 5-0 record and arguably as the best team in the Pac-12 this season. Instead, they travel to USC as an unranked opponent, getting 13 points as an underdog.
For me, this is far too many points for the Trojans to be giving up. USC is very fortunate they’re still unbeaten, as Oregon State had to do everything short of score points for them to give away a victory. They weren’t the most impressive in the first half last weekend against Arizona State, marking the seventh time in their last eight conference games that the Trojans failed to cover the spread. They’ve also been the beneficiary of more turnovers than any team in the nation.
The Cougars have yet to be denied points inside the redzone this season, which is important, as this game will likely be high-scoring. Washington State’s secondary has been picked on early and often this season, but they’re very good against the run. USC ranks in the bottom third nationally in red zone scoring percentage, and if Washington State is able to bend and not break, it could lead to some empty possessions for the home team.
USC has struggled at times to keep Caleb Williams clean in the pocket, and that will be the best way for the Cougars to put themselves in position to cover the spread. Washington State ranks 28th in the nation with a 7.50% sack rate, and they will get to Williams enough to stay in the game and cover the spread for the fourth straight game in conference play.
PICK: Washington State +13 (-110)
